Why Liu Bei Failed to Hold Xuzhou
Despite having strong local support and a strategic location, Liu Bei lost Xuzhou twice due to insufficient military capabilities, poor talent management, weak internal control, and ineffective responses to crises from both Lü Bu and Cao Cao.
The fall of Xuzhou marks a critical turning point in Liu Bei’s career in northern China. While many attribute this failure to external factors, a deeper analysis reveals several fundamental weaknesses in Liu Bei’s leadership and strategy.
First, Liu Bei’s military foundation was precarious. Although Xuzhou boasted significant resources with an estimated population of 400,000-500,000, Liu Bei only commanded around 4,000 troops from Tao Qian’s former forces. This limited military strength made it difficult to defend such a vast territory, especially against experienced commanders like Yuan Shu and Cao Cao.
Second, Liu Bei failed to consolidate internal control. While he received support from prominent local clans like the Chen family, he never fully integrated the existing military forces in Xuzhou, particularly the Danyang troops. The lack of unified command proved fatal when these forces later sided with Lü Bu.
Third, Liu Bei’s crisis management revealed serious deficiencies. When faced with Yuan Shu’s invasion, he left Zhang Fei to guard Xiapi while engaging Yuan Shu directly. This division of forces created an opportunity that Lü Bu expertly exploited, seizing the city through conspiracy with local forces. Liu Bei’s response to this crisis was particularly telling - his army “scattered” without putting up significant resistance.
The second loss of Xuzhou in 199 CE further highlighted these weaknesses. Despite having stronger backing from Yuan Shao and better circumstances, Liu Bei proved unable to effectively coordinate his forces when Cao Cao launched his campaign. His forces were defeated piecemeal, with key commanders like Guan Yu captured and strategic positions lost in rapid succession.
These failures reflect deeper issues in Liu Bei’s leadership at this stage. Unlike Cao Cao, who during the same period was actively recruiting talent and building effective administrative systems in Yan Province, Liu Bei failed to expand his core leadership team beyond Guan Yu and Zhang Fei despite Xuzhou’s rich human resources.
Ultimately, while external pressures were significant, Liu Bei’s inability to hold Xuzhou stemmed primarily from his own limitations as a military and political leader at this stage of his career. The experience proved transformative, forcing him to develop more sophisticated strategies as he moved south and eventually established himself in Jing Province and Shu.