What information is worth paying attention to in the foreign medias report Hamas leader claims approaching agreement with Israel on ceasefire? Is there a high possibility of achieving a complete ceasefire agreement?

Is Israel and Hamas Close to Reaching a Hostage Exchange Ceasefire Agreement?

First of all, is this “ceasefire agreement” a complete ceasefire, a temporary ceasefire, or a tactical ceasefire, or is it what Biden called a “hostage exchange ceasefire”?

Secondly, Hamas politburo leader Ismail Haniyeh stated that they are “close to achieving” a ceasefire agreement with Israel. How does Israel feel about this?

Currently, the possibility of a complete ceasefire between Israel and Palestine is not high. Israel has not eliminated Hamas, nor has it fully occupied Gaza. If Israel were to ceasefire now, besides the incompetence that caused the deaths of over a thousand Israelis and the violence that killed over ten thousand Gaza civilians, Israel would gain nothing. This would be Israel’s biggest strategic failure in recent years, one that Netanyahu cannot accept, nor can he bear.

Although the United States does not support Israel’s occupation of Gaza, it is firmly supportive of Israel’s mission to eliminate Hamas. This support has never wavered, and the US will not exert pressure on Israel regarding this issue. The Hamas organization structure is still intact, and Israel is still planning to “indefinitely” take over Gaza after the war. Therefore, Israel is unlikely to back down at this point.

Therefore, this ceasefire agreement is more likely the “hostage exchange ceasefire” mentioned by Biden. Hamas would exchange captured individuals for several days of ceasefire from Israel, allowing Gaza civilians to be moved to safe areas. Meanwhile, Hamas leaders would also be relocated outside the region. This way, no matter how much Israel bombards or attacks, as long as Israel calls for a ceasefire, Hamas can quickly rebuild and continue to resist.

The dilemma faced by the Israel-Gaza ceasefire agreement

As mentioned before, as the death toll continues to rise, it is possible for people to become numb; but each number represents a father, a mother, or a child who has yet to grow up…

If the goal of releasing hostages and achieving a temporary ceasefire can be realized, it is certainly a good thing for the people of Palestine who are in a desperate situation.

However, Israel would be uncomfortable.

Agreeing would allow more humanitarian aid, including fuel, to enter the besieged Gaza; but at the same time, it would also give Hamas in Gaza a rare opportunity to catch their breath and regroup, making it more difficult for the upcoming operations by the Israeli military.

In the war for the establishment of Israel, the country benefited from a one-month ceasefire, without which Israel would not have existed.

If Israel refuses, it would mean abandoning the hostages that are being held. The families of the kidnapped hostages h

Ceasefire Agreement Reached and Its Impact

According to information provided by a Hamas official to Al Jazeera, the focus of the negotiations includes the duration of the ceasefire, arrangements for delivering aid to Gaza, and the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners.

In other words, the main points of the agreement have been settled, with the only disagreement being on the details, particularly regarding the duration of the ceasefire.

Israel’s operations in the northern part of Gaza have made little progress underground. Apart from the IDF constantly tweeting, boasting about finding Hamas tunnels and updating the number of civilian casualties, there have been few notable achievements in the operation.

Therefore, we can see that Israel’s attitude towards the ceasefire is quite absurd:

On October 28th, after launching ground operations in Gaza, Israel stated that it would not consider a ceasefire or engage in peace agreement negotiations until Hamas was completely eradicated.

On November 3rd, when Israel completely surrounded the northern part of Gaza, Netanyahu once again stated that a ceasefire was completely out of consideration.

Prior to this, Israel consistently refused any possibility of a ceasefire.

On November 9th, Israel’s attitude towards a ceasefire changed to: a ceasefire would only be possible if all hostages were released.

And now, Israel and Hamas have come close to reaching a ceasefire agreement, with only a partial release of hostages.

The reason why Israel’s bottom line keeps retreating is partly due to the pressure exerted by the families of the hostages domestically, and partly due to the lack of significant progress and substantial losses suffered by the Israeli military in Gaza.

This ceasefire agreement has caused divisions within Netanyahu’s government. The far-right forces are extremely dissatisfied with the reached ceasefire agreement, believing that it would give Hamas a chance to regroup and restart their activities.

More importantly, once the first ceasefire is achieved, there will likely be more subsequent ceasefires, possibly leading to the complete end of the war at any time, and the desire of Jewish nationalism for territorial control over Gaza will be completely dashed. There may not be a good opportunity to further advance the government’s military occupation of Gaza.

Overall, the ceasefire agreement is beneficial for civilians in Gaza, and it also provides a follow-up to the ceasefire resolution passed by the Security Council.

Ceasefire Agreement has not been Reached

“Close to reaching” and “already reached” are completely different concepts:

1. Being close to reaching indicates that there are fewer disagreements within this ceasefire agreement, but there are still differing opinions.

2. Already reached indicates that all the terms within it have reached a consensus, and there are no longer any controversies or objections.

This is a message released by Hamas, which proves that Hamas is very hopeful to reach this ceasefire agreement and is optimistic about its final accomplishment. However, there is no message from the Israeli side. This can indicate that the main dissent in reaching this agreement lies within the Israeli side. So, what specifically is the content of this dissent within the close to reaching agreement?

1. Israel has no objection to exchanging hostages for a ceasefire, but this ceasefire is not a comprehensive one; it is a temporary, tactical, and partial ceasefire.

2. Relief supplies can enter the Gaza Strip, and Israel has no objection, but they cannot enter the northern part of Gaza.

3. Ensuring the safety of hostages and the guarantee of the number of hostages to be released, but if the number of releases is insufficient, Israel will immediately cancel the ceasefire order.

Based on the above, even if this ceasefire agreement is in a state of being infinitely close to reaching, as long as it has not been reached, it is considered not reached. There is a distinction between reaching and not reaching an agreement, without any intermediate state of being close to reaching. Therefore, the ceasefire agreement of being close to reaching, as announced by Hamas, holds no significance.

Middle East Ceasefire Agreement

Hamas is not a war god, and Israel is not invincible. Eventually, everything will return to peace.

The wandering Israelis have essentially occupied the majority of Palestinian territory with their strong and beautiful support.

Hamas, unwilling to bear humiliation and seeking revenge, finally took up stones to throw at the Israeli soldiers across the way.

If it weren’t for their own eyes, Hamas wouldn’t have been able to touch the bodies of Israeli soldiers in their lifetime.

This world is always like this: wherever there is oppression, there will be resistance.

“Hamas leader claims ‘close to reaching’ ceasefire agreement with Israel,” is highly possible.

Both sides are exhausted to the extreme. Israel is no longer an unbeatable army, and Hamas may not be exterminated by them.

The form of war is changing, and the only catalyst is “hatred.” If one Hamas falls, thousands of Hamas will emerge.

Palestine, a desert with no forests or crops, becomes a land irrigated by bloodshed and violence after encountering Israel, making it fertile ground for breeding hatred.

Since Hamas cannot be completely eradicated, and Israel cannot be driven away, in the end both sides will still have to sit at the negotiating table, even though they both carry unwavering hatred.

The spread of news and rumors always beat the official announcements, so it is highly likely that the flames of the Middle East conflict will be extinguished in a conclusive manner.

Unless Hamas or Israel makes an overwhelmingly demanding request that the other side cannot accept, tearing up the barely signed contract, still wet with ink.

On September 21st, Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Hamas Political Bureau, promoted the idea that “Hamas and Israel are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement,” as a way of showing the greatest goodwill towards Israel.

The next step will depend on Israel’s response. If nothing unexpected happens, Israel will also respond positively in the near future.

In this Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with Hamas in the shadows and Israel in the spotlight, facing an asymmetry in power and weapons, Hamas has launched an asymmetric war under the guise of discrediting Israel.

It is expected that in the end, both sides will declare their own victories: Israel taking over Palestinian land, and Hamas consolidating its hero status in the hearts of the Palestinian people.

Of course, being “close to reaching” is not the same as “having reached.” Before both parties sign, there will still be a tug of war until they secure their maximum interests.

Although there are still conspiracy theorists who believe that Hamas is delaying and buying time, their coffers are being emptied by Israel, and the key is that they have run out of capital.

This ceasefire agreement will inevitably have each side’s ideal demands, such as restoring borders to what extent and which rights the Palestinian people can obtain.

But the most realistic agreement is the release of hostages by both parties, the establishment of humanitarian corridors, and allowing international rescue organizations to enter. Middle East peace is a long and arduous journey, with ever-changing circumstances. We will have to wait and see what happens.

Israel Defense Forces withdraw, IDF fails, Hamas releases false news

If IDF fails to achieve the same level of suppression as the previous Operation Cast Lead in Gaza,

Withdrawing the military in such a manner to suppress Hamas,

It can be directly announced that IDF has encountered the largest failure in the history of Israel’s establishment.

Likud and Bibi will soon be overthrown.

Therefore, it is possible to conclude that the false news released by Hamas is intentional.

Probability is over 50%.

Help press the accelerator and accelerate the Israeli tanks forward collision.

Escaping Promises, I Change My Allegiance

I’m so pleased with myself that I couldn’t wait to share it. I’m afraid things might change over time, so I’ve let the whole world know. Israel, you can’t go back on your word now!

I continue to be delighted. A bunch of Islamic fools who agreed to work with me are now hiding far away, hoping to use me as a pawn, without even a door to hide behind.

Especially that Ish-something guy, you **! You even stopped providing the equipment you promised me recently, and you expect me to risk my life for you?

Damn Fatah! All you know how to do is snatch my territory. You can wait for Israel to let you take over Gaza, but it’s not gonna happen!

It seems it’s time to change course. While I still have some capital, I should quickly switch allegiances. At least I can keep my territory safe and not worry about running out of firewood.

I truly admire myself. I’m just too clever!

As clever as I am, hahaha, facepalm. I’m so pleased with myself. Twenty years later, I’m still a hero. Hamas will never die!

Waiting for Change.

In the blink of an eye, everything changes. We wait and see.