What information is worth noting regarding the population birth rates exceeding 8‰ in 9 provinces last year, and the negative population growth rates in 20 provinces?

Equal Respect for Reproductive Choices

I don’t think there is much to discuss.

If having children is a social necessity, then society should take responsibility for it. If having children is a personal choice, then please respect that individual’s decision.

Market Determines Supply and Demand in Various Fields

Market determines production.

The healthcare market, real estate market, education and tutoring market, daily necessities market…

Fertility Rate: China Surpasses Singapore

Just by reading the title, some non-experts might think that an 0.8% birth rate is relatively high.

Let me explain: compared to Singapore, a country plagued with all possible fertility debuffs (high population density, complete urbanization, high education rate, high female employment, high stress, high GDP, and aging population), an 0.8% birth rate is still far ahead!!!

It can be confidently said that the Chinese fertility army is just like the Chinese table tennis team - any province taken separately can easily compete with the rest of the world, except for South Korea’s “Sen Mida” (which translates to “think of you”) - no one else can match.

The Impact of Capitalism on Birth Rates

More than half of my close friends and siblings who are in their early thirties have not yet married. Even my younger siblings are around thirty. Not to mention the topic of having children, in a friend group of more than twenty people, there’s only one child. Some of my friends are already making preparations related to inheriting their parents' assets (because they don’t want their spouse to divide the inheritance), while others are buying various retirement and medical insurance. They are preparing for a childless old age. Everyone is too busy with work, getting off late, and there is simply no time for dating. But even with such a busy life, they cannot afford to buy a house, provide a good education for their children, or even have the energy to take care of their children’s health. In the past month or two, anyone with children must have experienced the urgency of pediatric emergencies, and even those without children, like myself, have witnessed it.

I can’t remember where I read it, but capitalism, although made up of people, is actually the enemy of humanity. When capitalism entails severe exploitation, people have no time or energy to have children. Their low sense of happiness makes them prone to illness, thereby leading to a decline in the working population. In order to sustain long-term exploitation, capitalists strictly regulate rest time and prohibit excessive exploitation of laborers, which ultimately leads to an increase in birth rates. So…

Not Worth Getting Married and Having Children

Xu Jinping, from the Confidential Bureau, gave Wensan a foreign car worth two hundred silver dollars, urging him to marry a wife and have a child. Little did they know that after Wensan had some extra cash, he would either go to Quanjude to eat roast duck or go to the theater to watch a show. He never mentioned getting married and having children.

In fact, Wensan had his own theory. He believed that the function of women was nothing more than sleeping together and giving birth to children. The former solved physiological problems, while the latter involved continuing the family line. Wensan never considered the latter because he didn’t even know who his parents were. Who would he continue the family line for? As a poor carter with no vast family wealth to pass on, why would I worry about continuing the family line? As for the former, it was indeed a practical issue. A normal man naturally needed to sleep with a woman, but if the cost o

Population Crisis

Data is no longer important.

It’s already November and the birth rate for 2023 has already been determined. Everyone is guessing about the number of births in 2023.

Optimistically, people speculate over 8 million, pessimistically, over 7 million. But for the statisticians, there’s only one word:

The leaders have the final say, there will be as many as needed.

The discussion ends there.

But this matter isn’t just about population. In reality, we’re discussing the future because everyone understands one thing:

With people, there is a future.

Without people, there is no future.

In ancient times, families without children would die out.

And in modern times, countries without people may also die out.

01

The aging of a country is already irreversible.

Objective laws are at play here and no one can defy them.

To understand aging, you shouldn’t think of a country as a country, but as a person.

As people age, their physiological functions decline and organs deteriorate.

On a national level, declining organ function corresponds to weak demand.

People in their sixties are reluctant to move.

You can’t just casually stay up all night and run a few kilometers in the morning like when you were in your twenties.

Now, you can no longer push yourself and run.

And not only do the elderly not want to run, they’re afraid of falling.

With weak physical foundations, if they trip, their bodies will collapse and they won’t be able to stand up again.

Of course, this isn’t the main point. As you can see, being old isn’t that miserable, as long as you have a pension. Although your body may not be in good shape, your quality of life can still be acceptable.

Like the old men in the park, you can’t ask them to run 400 meters for you, but they do tai chi exercises every day and their lives are still okay.

Perhaps everyone feels that’s fine.

It’s good not to be agitated.

But what is the problem?

The aging population in our area is not a good thing.

We’re not like the old people in the park who have wealth and pensions.

You have to put yourself in the shoes of those rural families burdened with a lot of mortgage debt. In our area, aging means that people in their sixties have to continue working in factories and take care of their own retirement.

Oh, that’s not right.

Maybe our situation is even worse. Although people in their sixties are responsible for their own retirement, at least they don’t have to worry about mortgage debt. But in our area, you can’t escape from it since you have that huge mortgage debt.

You can’t run away.

02

The current population problem is actually about repaying debt.

The country owes the population.

In 2021, we had 10.62 million births, but in 2022, it dropped to only 9.56 million. Just think about the impact of last year’s pandemic, this year’s employment, and the economy, and it’s certain that 2023 will not be better.

The number of resources is no longer sufficient.

Forget about high-quality population, everyone who works understands that if you have one more person doing the same job, it becomes much easier. Even those within the system who only graduated from high school can handle the work, so what’s the point of the “talent dividend”?

You need to understand that all assets in modern society rely on people.

The value of the storefronts on the street depends on people, the construction of infrastructure on the roadside depends on people. Assets that don’t involve people cannot generate cash flow.

Once there are no people, everything disappears.

First, the decline of commercial streets is like small rural shops. You walk into them and see that the lights are never on, and the quality of the merchandise is questionable, not to mention whether they are expired.

Because there is no consumer demand, these goods don’t circulate and end up piling up.

In rural areas, this may be passable since older people at least have some hope, but what about the younger generation who can’t stand it?

They start to leave, they go to other places, big cities, anywhere that can bring about growth.

But what is the cost of leaving?

I built a house in the countryside, thinking that it would support me in my old age, but now there’s no way to support aging in the countryside.

Hospitals are gone, small shops are gone, everything is gone. If I can only support myself by farming, and I don’t like watching short videos, I still need medical treatment. But without these basic resources, what can I do?

This is the personal account of an individual.

If we consider it on a national scale, this area can no longer sustain itself.

We used to be able to rely on transfers, because most places had money and it wasn’t difficult to allocate a small amount for transfer payments.

But what if those places become poor too?

Who will help them then?

03

But this is just the primary problem.

Although a normal decline in population is pitiful, there is a limit. After all, China is so vast, we can take it slowly.

There will always be people who can’t escape. If those who can’t escape die off, the rest of us can start lying down and enjoying life. We don’t need to achieve great success, just avoid major mistakes, isn’t that enough?

No, because aging is on its way.

When you’re old, you can no longer create value. However, your needs still exist. Although society can turn a blind eye and not provide pensions, basic services still need to be provided.

For example, public transportation, water and electricity infrastructure, and the salaries of sanitation workers and garbage disposal. These are the invisible aspects that cities need to spend money on to maintain.

However, these areas can no longer generate revenue, and self-sufficiency is no longer possible.

What can be done?

Currently, we can rely on transfers, with wealthier areas helping those less fortunate. It’s just like a family. When the parents stop making money, it doesn’t mean the children stop making money. As long as someone is making money, things can still be sustained.

But what if you’re already in debt?

You should know that when you owe debt, you have to pay interest. Just like in Dushan County, with tens of billions of debt, they have to pay billions of interest every year. They can’t create wealth themselves, so what can they do?

Sell assets?

But they can’t sell them.

You may say that the railways in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have value because they are used and generate rental income. But what use does a railway in the Sahara Desert have?

But they can’t default on their debts. At most, they can stop paying interest and gradually repay the principal.

Maybe everyone still doesn’t understand this.

You can understand it by looking at mortgage payments. In the past, people didn’t feel it deeply because housing prices were rising rapidly, and wages were increasing. But now housing prices have stopped rising, wages have decreased, so how do you repay the mortgage?

You use the next thirty years.

But if there are no people left, does your house still have meaning?

No, it doesn’t.

Do you know why bankruptcies and liquidations are common abroad but not so much in China?

It’s because they fear a hard landing.

If an individual repays a thirty-year mortgage, it’s a soft landing because the individual bears the cost.

If an individual doesn’t repay a thirty-year mortgage, it’s a hard landing because the financial system bears the cost.

In the past, we made individuals responsible, and that’s why we see so many people defaulting on their debts.

But what if individuals can no longer bear the burden?

Then it falls on the financial system.

But it doesn’t end there because even if the financial system bears the burden, it’s not something they can handle alone. They need time to smooth out the situation.

Just like Japan, it took two generations an entire thirty years to repay the debt.

Half of a person’s lifetime is spent on repaying debt.

04

Finally, let’s talk about something else.

What has been our propaganda approach?

Given a population of 1.4 billion, China’s development potential is enormous. With such a large population base, we have the ability to achieve a level of development that has never been seen in human history.

But this path is difficult.

There are obstacles from the West and limitations due to China’s inherent lack of natural resources. In addition, there is a lack of historical technological accumulation and a scarcity of talent. This path is destined to be full of hardships.

Though it may be filled with hardships, we are not without hope. We have proven this in the past. After the reforms and opening-up, we created wealth through hard work. But for some reason, the assets we now have in front of us have become liabilities.

Just as the saying goes, any difficulty divided by 1.4 billion is a minor problem.

This statement seems inspiring, but have you thought about its underlying meaning?

There are no difficulties for society.

Because the difficulties of society are transferred to each of us.

Why is everyone so concerned about the birth rate data for 2023?

Because with fewer people carrying the burden, those living a peaceful life start to worry.

Possible Cancellation of Data Release for 2023

In accordance with this trend,

Hmm,

The data for 2023 may not be released…

1. Feasibility of introducing foreign workers

2. Impact of declining ethnic population
3. Urgency of encouraging childbirth

I will discuss three things:

1. Will there be a large influx of foreign workers?

Even in the context of a sharp decline in the birth rate of the local population, the idea of introducing a large number of foreign workers is basically rejected by all Chinese people, after all, the current situation is still challenging, and who cares about what will happen in the next twenty years.

In addition, the massive influx of foreign populations in Europe and America has indeed frightened many Chinese people due to the population replacement crisis and cultural conflicts it brought.

Therefore, it is highly unlikely that there will be a large-scale proactive influx of foreign populations in the future.

China’s future may follow the path of Japan and South Korea, where people work hard until old age, enduring a lifetime of hardships.

2. Will it cause a sharp decline in the population of the main ethnic group to below 50%, triggering a crisis in the border regions?

The stability of China is fundamentally rooted in the overwhelming majority of the population being of the main ethnic group.

However, with the avalanche-like decline in the birth rate of the main ethnic group, it is highly possible that the proportion of the main ethnic group’s population will fall below 50% in the future.

If it falls below 50%, population integration and cultural assimilation will become imperative. Otherwise, the proliferation of various ideologies such as religious generalization, pan-Turkism, pan-Mongolism, and others in recent years will have a significant impact.

The dissolution of the former Soviet Union and the collapse of former Yugoslavia were fundamentally caused by drastic changes in population proportion.

3. It is urgent to use real money and incentives to encourage childbirth

Whether it is a country, a nation, or a civilization, in order to exist and develop, there must be a sufficient population!

Without a population, everything is meaningless, regardless of how advanced your civilization is or how prosperous your culture is, it will all eventually be destroyed!

Population is the foundation of human society.

Discussion on Birth Rate and Urbanization Rate in Guangdong

Generally speaking, areas with higher birth rates tend to have lower urbanization rates. However, there are exceptions, such as Guangdong, the leading economic province, which has the fourth highest urbanization rate in the country, while its birth rate reached 8.3% last year, ranking eighth nationwide.

In 2022, the total number of births in Guangdong was 1.052 million, making it the only province with a birth rate exceeding 1 million for three consecutive years. Guangdong has been the top province in terms of fertility for five consecutive years.