The U.S. Supreme Court refuses to quickly rule on Trump's immunity dispute. The media has dubbed it "a major victory for Trump." How will Trump's path to the presidency unfold?

(Caixin News) According to reports from CNN and The Washington Post, on December 22nd, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that it would not make a quick ruling on whether former President Trump has broad immunity in the “alleged interference in the 2020 election case.” The Supreme Court, in a brief statement issued on Friday afternoon, rejected a request from the lead special prosecutor in the United States Department of Justice, Jack Smith, without explaining its reasons or apparent opposition. Trump subsequently welcomed the decision on social media, and the U.S. Department of Justice declined to comment. According to U.S. media reports, as the Supreme Court refused to intervene, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit will first hear the case and is scheduled to hold oral arguments on January 9th next year. On December 19th, in Waterloo, Iowa, former U.S. President and 2024 presidential candidate Trump attended a campaign event.

Ultimately, only the Supreme Federal Court can make a ruling on this matter; the results from other state or circuit courts are inconsequential.

Now that the circuit court has taken over, there will be a period of further proceedings. Once a decision is made, the losing party will likely continue to appeal to the federal court. The federal court has ways to delay the process, such as summoning constitutional experts for a lengthy and detailed debate, which can easily last a year or more. Therefore, since the federal court has decided to use delaying tactics, they are confident that they can at least postpone this matter until after the next year’s election.

By that time, if Dong Wang has already been elected as the new president, then there’s no need to discuss the matter anymore, as the victor’s justice prevails, and no one will bother researching it.

Conversely, if Dong Wang loses the election, then the ultimate outcome of this matter becomes less significant. With Dong Wang disappearing from the American political scene, the general public, too, will forget about the matter.

Therefore, the delaying tactics of the Supreme Court are extremely beneficial to themselves. At the very least, it won’t provoke widespread condemnation like issues such as abortion. Moreover, for Dong Wang, as long as the final result is not out, it won’t affect the election. It seems like the Supreme Court is neutral, but in fact, it is helping Dong Wang.

This can’t be blamed on others, as Dong Wang is “favored by heaven.” The nine justices of the federal court are appointed for life, and generally, as long as they are still in office, it’s rare for a president to have the opportunity to appoint someone to the Supreme Court, so it all depends on the president’s luck.

Some presidents don’t see a single Supreme Court vacancy during their four-year term. But during Dong Wang’s term, three vacancies occurred, and he promptly appointed three conservative justices, turning the conservative seats in the Supreme Court into six. Such luck could indeed frustrate the sleepy ones.

Therefore, even if the Supreme Court announces the outcome before the election, it is likely to be in favor of Dong Wang. Moreover, the judgment from Colorado is well understood by all; the federal court hasn’t accused Dong Wang of insurrection, so how could a state court come to another guilty verdict?

This is reminiscent of historical figures Gao Qiu and Qin Hui, infamous for their manipulations; indeed, groundless accusations are quite effective.

The U.S. Department of Justice Special Counsel Smith attempted to bypass the procedure that should have been handled by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit and directly requested the Supreme Court to conclude the case.

This request is unusual, marking the first time the Supreme Court has been asked to intervene in one of the four pending criminal cases against Trump.

It is rare for a prosecutor to ask the Supreme Court to intervene in a case before the lower appellate court has made a ruling. Smith’s move demonstrates the Justice Department’s urgency to process Trump’s case before the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Biden seeks to prevent Trump from becoming the Republican presidential nominee.

Whether Trump enjoys broad immunity in the “2020 election interference case” is in question. If it goes through the appeals process, it might be too lengthy, potentially failing to stop Trump in time.

The Supreme Court refused to expedite the case, and it reverted to the pattern designed by Trump.

Over the past three years, Biden has initiated several lawsuits against Trump, who has pleaded not guilty to all four criminal cases, alleging that his political opponents are behind these cases to interfere with the 2024 presidential election.

On March 25, 2024, Trump’s “hush money” case went to trial. On May 20, the “mishandling of classified documents” case started. This means that during the intense phase of the Republican presidential nomination contest, Trump will have to juggle campaigning and court appearances.

Biden has helped design this simultaneous campaign and court appearance strategy for Trump, aiming to bankrupt his reputation, keeping him busy with lawsuits, and therefore unable to participate in the election.

This move may not significantly affect Trump, who is not a traditional politician but a businessman known for his multiple bankruptcies and frequent lawsuits. For Trump, lawsuits are routine, and he has used them to attack Biden for allegedly using public power for political persecution.

The American public is quite responsive to this narrative, showing aversion to politicians using power to suppress opponents.

In the latest polls, Trump and Biden have experienced a crossover. In early December, a poll released by Emerson College showed Biden at 43% support, with Trump at 47%.

The Republicans have also retaliated. On December 13, the U.S. House of Representatives held a full vote, passing with 221 to 212 votes to authorize a formal impeachment inquiry into President Biden, investigating whether he improperly benefited from foreign business dealings of his 53-year-old son, Hunter Biden.

Both parties are using their power to suppress their opponents, and the intensity of domestic political gamesmanship in the U.S. is spiraling upwards. The goal to imprison the opponent has blurred their nature, resorting to extreme measures to ensure their opponents' downfall.

Trump’s path to election is destined to be difficult and rugged because he is the arch-enemy of the establishment led by Biden. To prevent Trump from being elected president, the establishment will devise various methods to create obstacles for him.

The contest between Trump and Biden is one of policy direction. Biden, representing the establishment, employs a Cold War tactic of suppressing competitors to establish a leading advantage. This process requires uniting allies and attacking opponents, with the U.S. investing substantial resources and paying a considerable price.

Trump follows an “America First” isolationist policy, demanding that whether they are allies or adversaries, if they benefit at America’s expense, they must pay the price. All affairs are measured against the “America First” standard. Under this doctrine, the U.S. has dramatically withdrawn from international groups, defaulted on United Nations dues, engaged in trade wars with allies like Japan and Canada, and an intense trade war with China.

The establishment and Trump represent two extremes in America, reflecting the societal division. The establishment’s maneuvering sacrifices the interests of the American people, leaving many “rednecks” jobless. Trump’s America First policy has damaged the national interest, causing a steep decline in America’s international standing. One may lead to America’s decline, while the other might allow competitors to surpass it, neither being the best choice.

Seven years ago, Americans chose America First, but due to the resulting domestic chaos, the establishment regained power. However, in these three years, the establishment hasn’t brought much change to America. Conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have started to divide the Democratic Party, while Trump’s influence continues to rise. For instance, Trump is a representative of domestic opposition to supporting Ukraine, and the latest U.S. aid package to Ukraine was rejected, signifying a resurgence of isolationism that Trump represents and suggesting that the establishment might lose the election again.

Finally, do not hope that Trump’s election will change America’s China policy just because Biden’s administration has been suppressing China. We have seen what Trump is capable of, and three years ago, we had the same hopes for Biden. But Biden not only did not lift the additional tariffs on China but intensified the encirclement. Trump’s return will not be any better and will bring even more uncertainty. Suppressing China has become a consensus among the American elite, and no matter who is elected, this will not change.

Gradually, it feels like things are about to turn around. Could it be that the Fighting Buddha is about to return?

Given the choice between the two old men, the chair and Trump, there is a high probability that the Beautiful Nation will choose Trump.

Even if Trump is not great, he’s still better than Dengzi, who likes to jump around and throw tantrums. At least he’s somewhat humorous and won’t forget his lines.

From this, it can be seen that one should have a sense of humor in life. It’s okay to act a little confused when you’re old, but the key is to be interesting.

You can probably imagine, if Trump were to return to the White House, what governance strategies he would adopt?

Time has now opened a convenient door for Trump. In the previous election, Trump lost his right to be elected in Georgia, but this time the Supreme Court of the Beautiful Nation has given him a window of opportunity.

In the upcoming race, Trump probably needs to race against time. If he can successfully make a comeback before the Supreme Court of the Beautiful Nation makes a decision, the subsequent lawsuits won’t matter at all.

The great justices of the Beautiful Nation are also watching the presidential candidates' performances. Whoever sings well, preferably with captivating charm, will be the one to shine.

Based on the current election situation in the Beautiful Nation, even if Trump loses the first round (not allowed to be listed on the Georgia Republican primary ballot), it’s not necessarily the end of the road for him, after all, there is a “not immediately effective” clause in the Georgia court’s ruling. Trump has certainly used his connections, money, and manpower, but most importantly, he has shrewdly leveraged public sympathy to persuade the Supreme Court to refrain from making a swift decision and to allow his name to continue to appear on the Georgia ballot.

You have to admit, Trump is still quite cunning. He managed to use the so-called public opinion to exert pressure on the Supreme Court of the Beautiful Nation and temporarily secure his position.

The Democratic Party is in a tight spot, attempting to use unconventional tactics to target the Trump loyalists. However, the Supreme Court is the framework established by Trump back in the day. One cannot help but reflect on the fact that it is the world’s foremost beacon of the rule of law, spending 6% of GDP on legal affairs. In the end, victory or defeat still relies on the appointment of Supreme Court justices. Trump’s “divine hand” from back then not only saves him today but also remains the most potent weapon in the Republican arsenal for the foreseeable future. If the Democratic Party continues to dominate this round and the dilution of votes is insufficient, they may have to rely on the Washington Tank Road to salvage the situation.

This decision is favorable for “the knowledgeable one” at the moment because it essentially determines that this lawsuit will not affect the knowledgeable one’s campaign. The knowledgeable one can proceed with his campaign smoothly!

Whether it will be favorable for “the knowledgeable one” in the future still requires observation; the possibility of a backfire exists! The pendulum effect in politics is always there!

Because regardless of this decision, it comes from a 6:3 ratio of conservative and liberal justices on the Supreme Court. This is an important achievement accomplished by the knowledgeable one during his term!

The Supreme Court of the United States is the highest authority in handling cases and disputes arising from the U.S. Constitution and legal procedures. It currently has 6 conservative justices, including John Roberts (1955~), Clarence Thomas (1948~), Samuel Alito (1950~), Neil Gorsuch (1967~), Brett Kavanaugh (1965~), and Amy Coney Barrett (1972~), as well as 3 liberal justices: Elena Kagan (1960~), Sonia Sotomayor (1958~), and Ketanji Brown Jackson (1970~).

However, if the knowledgeable one continues for another term, the continued conservative shift in the Supreme Court is inevitable, and its impact will be profound!

Collective photo of Supreme Court justices. Top row from left: Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Bottom row from left: Sonia Sotomayor, Clarence Thomas, John Roberts, Samuel Alito, and Elena Kagan.

I. Trust and Approval Ratings of Supreme Court Justices Hover Near Historic Lows

The position of a Supreme Court justice is a lifetime appointment, and for a long time, conservative and liberal Supreme Court justices in the United States have fiercely vied for influence on socially sensitive issues such as abortion rights. The personnel arrangement of the Supreme Court has become a critical battleground for Democrats and Republicans. A Gallup poll released before the start of the new term of the Supreme Court on October 2, 2023, showed that public trust and approval ratings of the Supreme Court in the United States hover near historic lows. Only 41% of respondents approve of the Supreme Court’s work.

II. Liberals Struggle to Gain an Edge

Last year (2022), in order to ensure that liberals maintain their three seats, liberal Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer officially retired at noon on June 30, 2022, Eastern Time. Breyer had served as a justice for nearly 28 years, and at 83 years old, he was the oldest member of the nine-member Supreme Court. Breyer’s successor was announced by U.S. President Biden in April of this year as Ketanji Brown Jackson, meaning that the Supreme Court will welcome its first African American female justice. As early as June 2021, New York Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Congressman Mondaire Jones had been urging Breyer to “retire as soon as possible.” CNN analyzed that this was also a concern for many Democrats: if the aging Breyer did not retire during Democratic President Biden’s term, it was very likely that after Biden lost the election, he would be replaced by a conservative justice appointed by a Republican president, following the precedent set by the late liberal Justice Ginsburg. During the Trump administration, three conservatives nominated by him became Supreme Court justices, shifting the balance from 5-4 in favor of conservatives to 6-3. The liberal justices, whose political views align with those of the Democratic Party, not only do not have a numerical advantage but are also older, with an average age of over 70. In contrast, the conservative justices have an average age of only 62, with the youngest just 50 years old. If Jackson can succeed Breyer, it will not change the balance of conservative and liberal justices on the federal Supreme Court, but it will rejuvenate the liberal camp, at least for some time, solidifying the current seats.

III. The Next Changes

Clarence Thomas (1948~) and Samuel Alito (1950~) are the main variables for the future!

How can I lose with three Supreme Court justices in my hand?

It’s so much fun.

Is the United States ruled by men or by law?

How can the same American judges come to completely opposite conclusions on the same matter?

Is it Trump who violated the law or the judges? Or is it whoever has more power who calls the shots?

Isn’t this helping Trump win votes? It looks like Trump is getting closer to winning the election. Biden, who is getting old, has made too many mistakes.

As long as the 6 conservative justices on the U.S. Supreme Court don’t want to help the establishment against Trump, he is safe. The final showdown in 2024 will still be between him and Biden’s son.

There is nothing new under the sun.

The current political strife in the United States rivals the eve of the Civil War.


The states in the United States divided into two major camps: pro-slavery and anti-slavery.

When Lincoln took office after the 1860 presidential election,

the two major camps immediately erupted into a fierce civil war known as the Civil War.


Both the Democratic and Republican parties are actively embracing the uncompromising spirit of their predecessors

and quickly entering a state of irreconcilable confrontation.

With the Democratic Party manipulating state courts to deprive Trump of his candidacy rights,

political strife has escalated to a life-and-death level.

It’s possible that after this election ends with Trump’s victory

or after some future election,

the United States may rapidly enter a state of division and conflict akin to a civil war,

even leading to a second American Civil War.

Many are curious why, despite the conservative majority in the Supreme Court, they haven’t come forward to announce Trump’s pardon, allowing him to participate in the election with peace of mind. There are complex political considerations involved here.

Firstly, for Trump’s campaign, is it better to have legal troubles or to be trouble-free?

Looking at Trump’s actions during this campaign, it’s clear that his campaign team has chosen the former. From the high-profile participation in court inquiries with a luxurious motorcade to repeatedly denouncing the Democratic Party’s political persecution during the campaign, Trump and his campaign team have done their best to portray him as a “tragic figure” persecuted relentlessly by the Democratic Party.

This is also why Trump’s poll numbers, which initially started on par with DeSantis, have now surpassed the entire Republican field, including Biden.

For the Democratic Party, if they cannot completely defeat Trump through a series of legal battles, then every trial and attack against Trump, including Biden, will to some extent widen the polling gap.

Therefore, both the Democratic and Republican parties, or rather, the Democratic Party and Trump, have already gone all-in and have no retreat. The Democratic Party can only use legal means to block Trump’s path to the election, and Trump is employing a delaying tactic. If he can delay until the day of the presidential election, his chances of winning are quite high, and by then, all problems will likely dissipate.

Secondly, for the Supreme Court, is it better to make a quick judgment or to employ a delaying tactic like Trump?

The answer is clearly the latter.

On one hand, the Supreme Court has accumulated a considerable amount of public opposition through previous judgments. If they openly “protect” Trump in this matter, it would be a significant blow to the credibility of the Supreme Court.

So why should the Supreme Court take a strong stance at this time? Even if the Supreme Court pardons some of Trump’s offenses and grants him the so-called presidential pardon, the Democratic Party will surely come up with other tricks and continue to attack Trump from a legal perspective. At that time, it’s inevitable that the Supreme Court will need to come out and provide a legal interpretation. In any case, similar matters will not rest before the general election.

Why not let the Democratic Party gain visibility, become embroiled in endless partisan struggles, and further erode the reputation of the Supreme Court? Until it’s absolutely necessary, the Supreme Court will refrain from direct intervention.

Besides, doesn’t Trump enjoy the spotlight shining on his face?

Lastly, the Democratic Party finds itself in a difficult situation with no way out.

Based on recent polls, Trump is leading Biden by at least 4 percentage points, with Trump leading Biden in 5 of the 6 swing states. Trump can be said to have a significant lead.

Therefore, the Democratic Party can only try to lower Trump’s approval ratings through wave after wave of unconventional tactics. However, Trump and his supporters are not to be underestimated, and their thought processes are far from ordinary.

In the case of past candidates, if they had encountered as many issues as Trump has, they might have withdrawn from the race long ago. However, Trump’s approval ratings have steadily increased due to this heap of troubles.

At present, continuing to push for legal action by the Democratic Party will only further widen the gap in support between Biden and Trump and will have no positive impact. Moreover, Trump still holds the “trump card” of three conservative Supreme Court justices, which he can use as a last resort to ensure his survival. He is in an unassailable position.

So, perceptive individuals can see that if the Democratic Party does nothing, it will be like boiling a frog in warm water, and they will have to watch Trump be elected. If they do too much, they will only make their defeat more embarrassing.

Therefore, everyone understands now that when Trump received the appointment of three Supreme Court justices back then, it was a huge advantage. Not only for this election, but for the Republican Party and Trump, having an advantage in Supreme Court justices can be greatly utilized in many future situations, providing more benefits to the Republican Party.

From many secondhand information, it can be seen that the United States Federal Supreme Court already has a notorious and fervent conservative justice. In preparation for the ethical standards of this justice, the Supreme Court, dominated by conservatives, does not want to further tarnish its reputation and public opinion by openly lowering its standards for other fervent Republicans. Hence, this procedural delay tactic, which the Supreme Court employs, has been influenced by the continuing decline in reputation and public resentment resulting from the aggressive ruling in the Gore v. Bush case among conservatives. Such deferral does not necessarily signify a victory perceived by Trump himself. Many believe that the justices nominated by Trump would protect his judicial responsibilities, which may be certain in a society dominated by authoritarianism. However, the potential error lies in the United States, a federal system with an electoral system, where justices as fervent as Trump may not exceed two. Even the conservative and tactful Chief Justice Roberts is not among them.

Trump is like the existence of COVID-19; we can only choose to coexist with it. He brings a lot of amusement, more entertaining than Biden, and at least he’s not throwing political bait. It makes the internet a bit quieter.

The attitude of the United States Supreme Court can be summed up in one word: delay. It’s clear that they are buying time for the former president.

In essence, they are saying:

“Former President, we’ve done our part in handling the legal matters for now. We can only assist you up to this point. The rest is up to your abilities. If you manage to become president again, everything will be fine. But if fate doesn’t favor you, well, we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.”

From the current polling results in the United States, there are two major issues affecting the former president’s campaign.

One major issue is his age and physical condition. Of course, in this regard, “Sleepy Joe” is not in much better shape than the former president, so “Sleepy Joe” doesn’t pose a significant threat in this aspect. The primary challenge regarding this issue comes from third-party candidates.

The latest polls indicate that 20% of voters believe both the former president and “Sleepy Joe” are too old and advocate for a younger candidate to become president.

The other major issue is the legal cases surrounding the former president. However, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to employ a “delay” strategy has helped him significantly, making this issue less of an obstacle.

This development is certainly advantageous for the former president’s campaign, although its impact is limited. This has never been a concern for his loyal supporters.

The former president’s main opponent is not “Sleepy Joe,” even though “Sleepy Joe” may secure the Democratic Party’s nomination. The issue he faces in his campaign is not primarily legal.

As for whether the former president will succeed in his aspirations or if a dark horse candidate will emerge, no one knows for sure right now. It’s all speculation, and sometimes it’s more productive to study yesterday’s weather forecast to see how accurate it was.

As the election draws nearer, the value of judges becomes increasingly significant.

Be bold, and when the time comes, offer one billion dollars each to prevent Trump from running.

With so much money, can those judges continue to support Trump?

As for where the money will come from, I believe that as long as they dare to cross ethical boundaries, the Democratic Party has plenty of methods.

Anyone who cannot kill him will only make him stronger.

In order to target Trump’s path to the presidency, Biden and the American establishment have spared no means.

First, they raided Trump’s estate on the grounds of concealing national security documents.

Then they staged a ridiculous “rape case” against Trump, attempting to send him to prison.

Now, they are doing everything in their power to prevent Trump from qualifying for the election.

This fully demonstrates that America’s democratic electoral system is a joke. To suppress political opponents, they can go to any lengths.

At the same time, it indirectly highlights Trump’s astonishing influence, to the extent that his adversaries would rather break political rules than allow him to run. In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, perhaps Trump can truly defy the odds.

It is foreseeable that as the election approaches, Trump will face more and more challenges, becoming increasingly intense. Trump has no way out; according to the current situation, he must win, or he will be held accountable.

The path to the throne is destined to be filled with obstacles and thorns.

Only through cruel trials can one earn the right to wear the crown.

For MAGA, carry on, Mr. Trump!

Some people have worked for eight years, eagerly waiting for eight years, and still haven’t appointed a Supreme Court Justice.

Others have served for four years and opened up three Supreme Court Justice seats.

What can you say? Without this luck, Trump might have been pressed to death this time.

Just passing by, not really concerned about all the fuss.

But still hoping for Trump’s reelection.

At least he can bring some peace to the domestic internet!

Trump appointed three Supreme Court justices during his tenure, shifting the court to a predominantly conservative stance.

The purpose of suing Trump is to prevent him from participating in the presidential election, which seems a bit excessive, and the conservatives certainly won’t go along with it.

Trump is demanding 60 trillion dollars from China. Trump has friendly relations with nuclear-armed countries around China, and the critical framework for containing China’s economy was planned and legislated by Trump’s team.

If Trump comes to power, the external environment for our military suppression of the Lai Ching-te Group will deteriorate.