The Ministry of National Defense stated that the "positive and constructive results have been achieved in the video call between the Chinese and U.S. militaries." What information is worth paying attention to?

Anticipating Military Frictions between US and China in the Coming Year

The new year is expected to witness major events in the military friction between the US and China, perhaps involving combined operations.

The reason is simple, the American’s so-called “proactive building” has always been a delaying tactic. With the Middle East under significant stress and Eastern Europe mired in difficulties, easing off in the Western Pacific is necessary for them to cope.

Once they catch a breather, even the slightest, they will start causing trouble again. It won’t be the South China Sea, then it’s the Taiwan Strait.

Considering the focus on the Taiwan Strait last year, I think the next year might shift towards the South China Sea, though the East China Sea or the Korean Peninsula could also be potential hotspots.

Hoping a single video call would deter the Americans from causing trouble in the surrounding areas is as futile as hoping to win the lottery tomorrow.

Escalating Tensions: America’s Mounting Global Challenges

The United States is facing significant challenges globally,

Firstly, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems to be far from over, with an end not in sight for at least three months. The Israeli military themselves have indicated it could take several more months.

Israel relies on financial support from the United States.

In Syria and Iraq, US military bases continue to be attacked. Israel’s assassination of Iranian senior military officer Sayyed Raz Musavi has escalated tensions. Similar past actions under Trump led to Iran bombing the U.S. embassy, which the U.S. did not respond to vocally. Bombings on US military bases resulted in numerous soldiers suffering concussions and being sent to Europe for treatment.

More critically, Houthi forces are blockading Israeli ships,

Now countries like France are starting to push Israel to negotiate,

Europe can’t afford the costs of an ongoing conflict.

Increased transportation costs and time are evidently increasing Europe’s expenditure.

Yet, the U.S. seems unable to control Israel.

Secondly, the Republicans are preventing Biden from funding and arming Ukraine,

Russia has declared the capture of the town of Marinka in the Donetsk region of Eastern Ukraine,

Moreover, Russia’s military budget for 2024 has increased by 70%, signaling potential for escalated conflict.

What will become of Ukraine, especially as it’s been touted as a significant achievement of Biden’s presidency?

Regarding the South China Sea,

The President of the Philippines has stated the intention to resolve disputes independently,

Whether the Philippine military agrees or not is another question. Given the Philippines' history as a U.S. colony, there are many pro-American sentiments.

As the U.S. struggles,

The world might edge closer to peace.

Navigating Tumultuous Waters: China’s Steadfastness Amidst Global Tensions

It’s truly as Chairman Mao said, “Imperialists are arrogant. Where they can be unreasonable, they will be, only resorting to reason when absolutely necessary.”

Currently, the United States is preoccupied with conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and cannot afford to focus eastward. Necessitated to temporarily concede due to the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the situation is reminiscent of the farmer and the snake; once the frozen snake revives, it will immediately show its fangs!

I believe our nation has already prepared sufficient contingency plans, hence only speaking of “making phased progress” without detailing specific projects. It shows that what is said is not as important as observing the actions of the Americans.

Incidentally, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have declared they will not attack Chinese merchant ships, ensuring freedom of navigation wherever they wish. This assertion is not only made but also honored.

Amidst heightened tensions in the Red Sea, merchant ships from Hong Kong, China, continue to pass through the Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea on schedule, a fact observed by the entire world.

Moreover, one such merchant ship is named “Galaxy.”

Look at the difference in treatment. The U.S. mobilizes allies to form a large naval fleet, yet their merchant ships are still obstructed. Conversely, Chinese ships sail smoothly without any interference. Who is to blame for this? Can this be attributed to China?

Houthi rebels do not intercept all merchant ships in the Red Sea, only those bound for Israel. What are the demands of the Houthi rebels? Aren’t they just the resolutions passed by the United Nations Security Council? They are calling for a ceasefire and the delivery of aid to Gaza. But what has the U.S. done? They provide bombs for Israeli massacres of Palestinians, essentially handing over weapons for a racial genocide.

Therefore, the current problem is not China’s. China doesn’t have any issues. All problems are America’s own making.

And if the U.S. wants to solve these issues, it will have to seek cooperation!

Following this, nations like the Philippines and Taiwan will no longer dare to stir up trouble!

On December 19th, the last U.S. carrier strike group, initially deployed in the Western Pacific on the USS Carl Vinson, abandoned its missions in the Philippines and the South China Sea, rushing to the Middle East.

Subsequently, we saw a rapid shift in the Philippines' stance. On the same day, the President of the Philippines declared that the direction of Philippines-China relations had been mistaken.

This is essentially a public admission that the Philippines' recent actions in the Ren’ai Reef were misguided.

Therefore, the next step is likely a de-escalation of tensions in the South China Sea.

History is both cruel and gentle; it punishes those who defy its laws severely and rewards those who adapt and continuously strive for strength.

History is also a spiraling ascent. The momentarily powerful, constrained by their rigid interest groups, inevitably decline, while those who struggle and manage diligently, despite temporary hardships and temptations, are actually accumulating strength and fortifying their resolve.

Today, the “Galaxy,” freely navigating through the Red Sea conflict, is akin to China maintaining its composure amidst global madness. No matter the storm, this great ship named China will continue to cut through waves with ease and poise.

My grandfather was a long-standing party member and also a veteran who served in the military.

He passed away the year I took my middle school entrance exam.

Before his passing, he was still concerned about the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China.

Now, every year when I visit his grave, I pour a bottle of liquor and light a few cigarettes at the tombstone.

I talk about the international situation while paying my respects.

Looking at the current situation,

I estimate that we might have to wait until my grandchildren visit my grave

before we can have a proper conversation about reunification.

The last conversation was in July 2022.

In August, there was the incident involving Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan.

During the same period, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army conducted exercises in multiple sea areas.

On August 13th, the United States Navy’s only active aircraft carrier in the Indian-Pacific region, the “Reagan,” once again sailed southward to the vicinity of the Miyako Strait.

Remember: Weak nations have no diplomacy.

Whenever a major event occurs, and I feel incapable, such as the current situation in the Middle East where things are really going south, I tend to proactively make some so-called compromises, ensuring that you won’t take advantage of the situation while I’m vulnerable. But as soon as the situation stabilizes over there, they immediately change their tune.

Sigh, do some of us really not understand the consistent behavior of the big shots?

Challenges in Sino-US Military Communication

In the past, it was said that reaching this point was not easy.

After Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year, we appeared to have severed the communication channel between China and the United States military. However, in reality, this move removed the last layer of security, significantly increasing the likelihood of a qualitative escalation in conflict between the two most powerful military forces in the world.

For us, in safeguarding territorial integrity and sovereignty, even if a major war cannot be avoided, we must face it with determination.

For the United States, the possibility of being drawn into a conflict with a major power due to offshore interests is not the only concern. The critical issue is the inability to guarantee a graceful exit, leading to a loss of hegemony caused by the decline in global control. This is the most devastating outcome.

Suppressing a major power and showing off in front of allies is one thing, but going to war is another. The catastrophic consequences that follow after the showdown are often too much for the United States to bear. From this perspective, the United States is likely to benefit the most from the resumption of military communication.

Therefore, restoring dialogue between the two militaries is the most effective means to prevent misunderstandings or miscalculations, and it is also the last fig leaf for the U.S. military to maintain its façade.

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After General Liu’s conversation with Chairman Brown of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, the U.S. side will hold a series of meetings or telephone communications with the Chinese side at various levels in the coming weeks and months. According to the current plan, the bilateral defense coordination talks will be held early next year, and the China-U.S. maritime military security consultation mechanism may also be resumed in the spring of next year.

However, the significant differences between China and the United States cannot be resolved by military dialogue alone.

For example, our military buildup is entirely for self-defense. Taking the Navy as an example, in recent years, the speed at which the Chinese Navy has launched new ships has amazed the world:

• On June 28, 2017, the first Type 055 large missile destroyer was launched, followed by the completion of eight new Type 055 destroyers and 12 extended hull versions of the Type 052D missile destroyer by August 30, 2020.
• In 2021 to 2022, 10 improved Type 054A missile frigates were successively launched.
• During this period, the construction of the last batch of Type 056A light frigates was overlooked due to the overwhelming number of advanced Chinese warships being built.

And it doesn’t stop there. On June 17, 2022, the Fujian ship was launched, reaching a peak in the launch of warships. In addition, the Chinese military has added three Type 075 amphibious assault ships. The first ship of the fourth batch of Type B missile destroyers and the first ship of the Type 054B missile frigate are still to be launched.

So, what has the U.S. military been doing?

This month, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin met with the defense ministers of Australia and the United Kingdom to further expand the three countries' military technology cooperation and intelligence sharing to counter China’s growing influence and military threat in the Indo-Pacific region.

Clearly, the logic of the U.S. military is that you cannot be strong, and even self-defense is not allowed if it affects my exercise of hegemony.

What’s even more ridiculous is that during this period, the Chinese and Russian militaries conducted joint military exercises or joint bomber patrols in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, which irritated the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s Commander, Admiral John Aquilino, in Tokyo. He stated that China and Russia’s military cooperation has far exceeded the scope of “convenience marriage” and called on China to stop maritime confrontation with neighboring countries.

Isn’t this a real-life example of “officials are allowed to set fires, but ordinary people are not allowed to light lamps”?

What about the U.S.-Japan-South Korea military alliance, the Five Eyes alliance of the U.S., UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, the Quad alliance of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia… The U.S. military is causing trouble around China’s periphery, and China and Russia’s joint military exercises are driving the U.S. military crazy.

Especially on some key issues, the differences between the two militaries are too great, and military communication alone cannot resolve the fundamental conflicts of interest between the two countries.

For example, on issues related to the South China Sea and Taiwan, they are both core interests of ours, and defending them is entirely reasonable and legitimate.

The logic is simple: a rising great power should be able to set the rules internationally. If you can’t even handle your own backyard, how can you talk about rising?

But the U.S. doesn’t seem to see it that way. Richard Fisher, a senior researcher at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, largely represents the views of so-called American political elites:

In the future, the Eastern great powers plan to use military means to resolve the Taiwan, South China Sea, and East China Sea issues. Their intention is to use Taiwan as a base to kick the U.S. military out of the first island chain and incorporate it into their sphere of influence.

In other words, what the U.S. military will lose is not only Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the first island chain but also its sphere of influence in the entire East Asia region.

Well, if you insist on interpreting it this way, it’s not impossible.

During the exchange, it is evident that neither side wishes to escalate into full-scale warfare, politically speaking.

What we want to convey to the United States is that we harbor no ambitions regarding your global interests.

The United States aims to demonstrate to the world that we still possess the capability to counterbalance China.

Though the words may lack sincerity, there is still communication happening.

Both parties are exercising restraint, as tensions can easily lead to an unintended conflict.

At this point, it depends on who is willing to provoke a confrontation recklessly.

China is not an imminent threat to the United States. Although American politicians often talk about China as a threat, the real threats to the United States are Russia and various issues in the Middle East. Those are the real trouble spots. So when tensions rise between China and the United States, certain events tend to occur that force the two countries to cooperate. This highlights a fundamental fact that there is actually a lack of significant core conflicts between China and the United States. Therefore, the easing of this relationship is also the norm.

Open and candid exchange of opinions, achieving constructive outcomes

In other words, a lot was said, but each party had their own perspective, and ultimately, no consensus was reached. The only result is that there might be another chance to continue the discussion in the future.

This is just both sides expressing their views passionately. While neither side could threaten the other, at least the relationship didn’t further deteriorate. There’s no need for excessive speculation in response to this.

The meaning is that it cannot be started in the short term.

Sino-US High-Level Military Talks: Possible Consensus on Key Issues

The high-level communication between the Chinese and American military leadership, which began on the 21st and revisited this topic after a week, indicates that the two countries may have reached a consensus on certain issues or at some level through direct dialogue at the highest levels.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States

As for what specific agreements or outcomes have been reached between China and the United States, more public information is needed, and it will also depend on further examination over a longer period.

Still, the phrase holds true: Contact is better than no contact for two major powers like China and the United States!

However, according to our spokesperson, for China and the United States to work in the same direction through military high-level communication, the United States should at least express concern about our core interests on two fronts:

Firstly, the Taiwan issue. The Taiwan issue is a “core of the core” interest for us. However, the United States continues to sell weapons to Taiwan while also frequently sending warships and military aircraft to the waters around Taiwan for “freedom of navigation” operations, which seriously provokes our core interests.

If China and the United States are to “move in the same direction,” the United States should reduce arms sales to Taiwan, and similar military actions like “freedom of navigation” should also be reduced.

Secondly, the South China Sea issue. In the South China Sea, the United States has been constantly provoking China. The most recent incident was on December 4th when a US littoral combat ship trespassed into the waters of Ren’ai Reef.

Apart from causing trouble in the South China Sea, the United States has also been trying to form alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia to conduct military exercises in the South China Sea, and it has been constantly inciting the Philippines to create disturbances in the region. All these actions by the United States are direct challenges to our core interests.

US-Philippine joint military exercises

Therefore, we cannot simply rely on the words of the United States; we must see if the United States is truly adjusting its actions in the future. Only when the United States respects our national interests and concerns in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea can we truly “move in the same direction.”

As a diplomatically mature major power, we do not expect to resolve the conflicts between China and the United States with just one or two high-level dialogues. However, in the diplomatic arena, the game between China and the United States should involve a combination of both soft and hard approaches, with the understanding that “soft” should become even softer, and “hard” should become even harder!

US aircraft carrier strike group

The Uncertain Global Outlook for 2024

Many have been saying that the prospect of military action is unlikely, and I don’t think we need to be so “pessimistic.” Although I have also predicted that it’s unlikely to happen in the short term, the recent reconciliation between China and the United States can indeed be seen as a clear signal.

However, the international situation is highly volatile, and sudden and unpredictable changes are difficult to foresee.

And 2024, in particular, is a year filled with uncertainties.

Even within the next two months, the results of the Taiwan elections and the subsequent developments could bring about significant uncertainty.

Even if the Taiwan elections proceed smoothly, 2024 is a U.S. presidential election year, and the internal variables within the United States are very hard to predict. The intensity of partisan disputes, the extent of social polarization during the elections, the influence of public opinion mobilization, the responsiveness of the market economy, and the balance of the world are all constantly shifting.

Folks, don’t assume that anyone is prepared to start or initiate a war; there’s never a war that’s truly prepared for, but there’s always a moment when the arrows must be released when the storm arrives.

Useful for communication in conversations, so why do we need the military?

In diplomacy, it’s all about sounding good.

You must seize the opportunity.

Do it the way it needs to be done.

The tougher you get, the more aggressive you become,

the nicer the United States will be to you.

What is most needed right now

is to provide advanced anti-aircraft and anti-ship weapons to Arab countries.

So that Palestinian resistance can soon pose a threat to Israel’s jurisdiction.

Both are millennia-old foxes. The United States hopes that China does not cause trouble when it is being filial. China, on the other hand, wants to keep making dumplings while the United States is too busy to look east. In simple terms, it’s mutual paralysis, with temporary cooling on some sensitive issues. However, this seemingly positive state is just taking a breather because they’re tired. As long as the United States recovers, they will continue to clash.

There doesn’t seem to be any fundamental difference between the China-US issue and the rise of major powers in history. It’s an intractable issue with an inevitable conflict, unless the United States produces a Gorbachev.

Challenges and Strategies in the US-China Relationship

(Not sure how everyone’s year has been) Let’s not talk about how much money was made, but whether life has been satisfying. This year, I’ve grown gray hair, possibly due to working night shifts frequently. I did make some money in Changsha this year, but not much; it just helped repay some loans. I’m not asking for donations in this article, to avoid seeming pitiful. Instead, I’m wondering if you all could like the content on my homepage. If the likes exceed 50, I can receive a reward of 5 yuan. Please, everyone, I request your support.

When the United States deals with China alone, the result is that China develops the capability to resist the United States. When the United States forms alliances to confront China, the result is that China develops the capability to resist the United States and its allies. If the United States rallies the whole world against China, the result is that China develops the capability to stand alone against the entire world. Don’t believe it? Just try it.

(Now, let’s discuss why the US doesn’t team up with Russia against China) The reasons are as follows:

There are no fundamental conflicts between China and Russia now. The United States teaming up with Russia may not effectively contain China. However, after Europe and Russia reconcile, Russia is no longer a threat to Europe, and China, thousands of miles away, is even less of a threat. Ultimately, it leads to a grand reconciliation of the Eurasian continent. After the Eurasian continent reconciles, the global economic and financial center will shift to Western Europe, and the United States will decline completely.

Preventing the alliance of Europe and Russia aligns with the interests of the United States. If Europe and Russia unite, their combined power would surpass that of the US. Their geopolitical advantage would easily allow them to integrate Central Asia and the Middle East, squeezing our sources of energy and market space, just like facing the Huns, Turks, and Khitans from the west and north and the trade routes of the Silk Road. We cannot allow barbarians at our doorstep. If we can control east of the Urals, we won’t care about Europe and Russia. Furthermore, we haven’t even considered India, another variable. As a country with a population of 1.4 billion, India will be our biggest challenge. India constantly sees China as a strategic rival. After the completion of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the deployment of aircraft carrier battle groups in the Western Pacific, we must deal with India. If we don’t, it’s not justifiable, and if we do, India will be dismembered. Planning for a better living space in the future is a must; otherwise, there will be no excuse for stirring up trouble when we produce half of the world’s steel.

There’s another aspect: the relationship between Europe and Russia. Firstly, Northern Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Europe have a deep historical shadow when it comes to Russia. They have an innate fear of Russia. Over several centuries, they were not a match for Russia and always lost to Russia in the end. Whenever Russia becomes strong, it becomes a suffocating presence for Eastern and Northern Europe. Russia has weakened several times in the past, but each time, it returned stronger. So, even though Russia isn’t doing well now, who can say for sure about the future?

Then there’s Russia itself. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia maintained a low profile and even reduced its military to less than a million troops, shamelessly asking Europe to play together. But in the past, every time Russia rose, did Europe have good days? So, Eastern Europe doesn’t trust Russia. Germany and France only want cheap energy; they won’t share technology, and there’s no investment in manufacturing. They all hope to continue dividing Russia. Russia itself is very proud, seeing itself as the heir to the Roman Empire. Its greed for territory knows no bounds. Russia interprets its multiple resurgences despite repeated declines as a divine destiny, and at the end of history, it will once again unify the West as the new Rome. Easterners find it difficult to see the inner drama of Westerners, just as Westerners can’t understand the inner drama of the Chinese and Japanese. Many unspoken truths can’t be discussed openly, after all, we are all people of respect.

Why Is 2024 a Critical Year?

It’s an election year in the United States, and the most resilient warriors within the Republican Party are still being suppressed. Various government agencies controlled by the Democratic Party are targeting them. In an effort to maintain his position and divert attention from domestic conflicts, President Biden has already made unprecedented concessions in the Middle East, even hesitating to respond to provocations from the Houthi rebels who wear “slippers.” Given the current situation, if Israel continues its actions for another three months, things may take a turn for the worse.

In a certain southeastern province, the leadership change is only a little over ten days away. Before major elections, there are always ominous signs. This happens every time; you can mark my words. The Green Camp is holding back some major tricks, and in the final one or two days, they will undoubtedly unleash chaos.

To the east, a certain hired major power is advancing, and the timing should be around the Lunar New Year of the eastern major power. They will take advantage of the festive season when people traditionally gather for family reunions, disrupting your celebration by doing the most unpleasant things, causing you to lose your ability to make rational judgments.

For now, let’s make a phone call to establish contact and avoid any surprises.

Your Perception of Sino-US Video Call Outcome:

All parties lay down their weapons and renew cooperation, fostering a high level of mutual trust.

Reality:

In case of a conflict,

China assures restraint,

While the United States refrains from vocalizing it, letting its allies hear.

This message indicates that the pressure on the United States has indeed reached a point where they have to adopt a softer approach, which has revealed their true bottom line.