The current round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict leads to over 14,400 deaths Positive progress made in negotiations on the release of detained individuals How will the situation develop?

Military Tension

World Situation

Updated on 11/20/16

Military Preparedness

Israel-Palestine Ceasefire Agreement

As mentioned before, as the death toll continues to rise, it is possible for people to become numb, but each number represents a father, mother, or a child who has not yet grown up…

If the goal of releasing hostages and achieving a temporary ceasefire can be fulfilled, it would certainly be a good thing for the deeply troubled Palestinian people.

However, Israel would feel uneasy about it.

By agreeing, more humanitarian aid, including fuel, can enter the besieged Gaza Strip. However, at the same time, it would give the Hamas militants in Gaza a rare opportunity to catch their breath and regroup, which is even more detrimental to the upcoming operations of the Israeli army.

During Israel’s war of independence, they benefited from a month-long ceasefire; otherwise, the State of Israel would not have existed at all.

If Israel does not agree, it would mean abandoning the hostages they are holding. The families of the kidnapped hostages are al

War without end, Israel in trouble

Israel can’t hold on any longer and needs time to breathe. The damage from the war is too severe. Hamas' fighting spirit is still intact; they are now operating in multiple locations, and Israel cannot catch their main forces. Israel is being disoriented by the constant display of a few major successes every day. However, it seems that Hamas is running out of food and losing its vitality.

“Only war can stop war, any progress can only be achieved through fighting.”

Hostages have always been an excuse for the enemy; the aggressors don’t care about hostages. Let me tell you, just keep on fighting. Another two months of fighting and the Israeli economy will be in ruins.

Yemen now controls the Red Sea and has started to detain Israeli cargo ships. Israel simply cannot withstand this.

The UN has passed a humanitarian ceasefire resolution, which must be followed; otherwise, there will be sanctions.

Currently, one million people in Israel are unemployed, and there is a huge daily expenditure on the war. The main industry of tourism is completely paralyzed.

The key now is willpower. The final outcome will undoubtedly be a victory for Hamas because willpower determines the result.

The war will continue until Hamas can’t hold on any longer.

Although it may sound cruel, independence can never be achieved without struggle and sacrifice. Such sacrifices are an inevitable cost of national and ethnic independence.

The so-called release of detainees is actually a political and international public relations game between both sides. Due to domestic political reasons, Israel must be accountable to its people on the issue of hostages. As long as they are not in the hands of Hamas, whether they are alive or dead is acceptable. By holding hostages, Hamas can force Israel to continue fighting in Gaza. Therefore, Hamas is even more concerned about the safety of the hostages than Israel. Releasing hostages will only alleviate the shortage of resources for Gaza’s civilians to a certain extent. It is almost impossible for Hamas to release all the hostages unless they reach their breaking point.

So the war will continue, casualties will increase, until Hamas can’t hold on any longer. Then, Hezbollah will take over the baton of the war and continue to expand it in the north. The huge sacrifices made by Hamas and the civilians of Gaza are the cornerstone of Palestinian independence. Without such sacrifices, Hezbollah would not have intervened on a large scale and would not have taken over the subsequent war from Hamas, allowing Hamas to breathe and regroup.

Hamas has not made the next move and needs to consult with Iran and Russia

This time, Hamas took the initiative.

If there is an initiative, there will also be a response. Otherwise, the United States would not hastily send two aircraft carrier groups over.

Up to now, Hamas has not made the next move.

It feels like consulting with Iran and Russia is necessary to make a decision.

Middle East Conflict: IDF Dilemma

Although it may sound callous, the speed of death has indeed slowed down. This indicates that Israel’s ammunition is not limitless. Furthermore, the ceasefire resolutions passed by the United Nations were all vetoed by Netanyahu, so we shouldn’t hold high expectations for negotiations.

Of course, Netanyahu is also reluctant to agree to a ceasefire, otherwise the extremist factions within Israel would unleash their fury on him. However, he also can’t be completely swayed by the radical factions, because those people are clamoring to level Lebanon, completely oblivious to the fact that the IDF couldn’t even defeat Hamas.

As for the United States, they don’t want to get into a fight with Hezbollah and the Houthi militia, their plan is for all parties to stay out of it and for Israel to take on Hamas alone and come out victorious. Therefore, the US is simultaneously urging Israel not to escalate and provoking the Houthis and Hezbollah without any intention of fighting back.

But the problem is that Hezbollah completely ignores the US rhetoric and intensifies their attacks in the north, making it impossible for Netanyahu to turn a blind eye. At the same time, the IDF is struggling in Gaza, with the Merkava tanks being targeted by local residents every day.

For Israel, if it were a lion, it could survive, but if it were a husky, it would perish. But the current performance of the IDF…

The Paradox of War

In any war, once it turns into a protracted conflict, there will be no winners. Hamas’s current main objective is to “drag it out” while Israel’s main objective is to “quickly resolve it”.

To “drag it out” means gradually forcing the entire Gaza Strip into becoming a nation of fighters through continuous struggle against Israel.

There are three reasons for dragging it out.

First, Israel and Hamas are irreconcilable enemies. Therefore, in order for Hamas to survive, it must fight a protracted war as Israel is determined to eliminate Hamas.

Second, the interests of Israel and the people of Gaza have not yet reached a stage of severe confrontation. The lack of confrontation is not because Israelis care about the people of Gaza, but rather because the people of Gaza are not armed militants. Thus, Israelis' hostility towards Hamas far exceeds their hostility towards the people of Gaza.

At the same time, after a month of war, it has become clear that Israel’s actions in Gaza will be influenced by other global powers. Although currently it seems difficult for these influences to completely hinder Israel’s actions in Gaza, they cannot be completely ignored.

For example, if it weren’t for the immense global pressure on Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu would not have agreed to a temporary ceasefire a few days ago. In the eyes of many Israelis, even a temporary ceasefire is a betrayal of the Israeli nation by the Netanyahu government. Most Israeli citizens don’t understand the impact of international struggles on Israel; they simply demand the immediate and swift elimination of Hamas and the cleansing of Gaza.

Therefore, in this situation, dragging it out benefits Hamas. Dragging it out means that Israel will face increasing international pressure in terms of humanitarian concerns.

Third, the interests of Hamas and the people of Gaza are deeply intertwined.

The paradox that arises from the above three reasons is that the objectives of all Israeli military operations tend to backfire.

For example, Israel’s objective is to eliminate Hamas, but this inevitably leads to exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which in turn hampers Israel from achieving its objective. The temporary ceasefire a few days ago is proof of this.

If Israel exerts excessive force on Gaza, Gaza will eventually turn into a nation of fighters. If another 50-60 thousand people join Hamas’s ranks, Israel will be trapped in a protracted war. The concept of protracted war itself is evidence of the decline of Israel’s offensive capabilities, as can be seen in Mao Zedong’s “On Protracted War”. This will further increase the pressure on the Israeli government from within the country.

If Israel eases the pressure of its offensive on Gaza, it is equivalent to nourishing the existing members of Hamas, allowing food, water, fuel, and other supplies to continue flowing into Gaza. This could also lead to intense battles for the Israeli Defense Forces.

Some people say that international public opinion has no impact on Israel, and the Arab world is not involved, therefore Israel can do whatever it wants. This statement is unrealistic. If international public opinion had no impact, Gaza would have immediately become a Berlin of 1945. Although the Arab world might not be actively involved, as long as they exist, Israel and the United States cannot do whatever they want.

Hamas is not afraid of Israel at all. Even if Israel wants to exchange hostages, Hamas won’t comply. Hamas has nothing left to lose, regardless of whether they are fighters or hostages.

The two individuals below are Israeli hostages held by Hamas. They have been placed in separate buildings in Gaza. It is reasonable to speculate that Hamas has dispersed the Israeli hostages throughout Gaza, which aligns with their strategy of turning t

The Conflict between Israel and Hamas

For Israel and Hamas, who have reached the pinnacle of hatred, hostages are a hot potato for both sides.

Don’t think that Israel is so kind – Israel occupies 99% of Palestinian land, builds a complex system of segregated barriers, and locks Palestinian civilians up in prisons.

Don’t think that Hamas is so evil – a group of children without parents or siblings, revenge is the only reason for their existence in this world.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is fundamentally an asymmetrical war, just like the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. People intentionally choose to turn a blind eye to the war and remain indifferent.

Out of the 14,400 deaths, 13,215 were Palestinian civilians, accounting for 92%. Of course, Israel chooses to deceive itself and only reports 1,200 deaths, but based on the situation of Hamas militants opening cans on the scene, it seems that Israel is intentionally concealing the truth.

It is hard to believe that hearts are not made of flesh, even if Old Liu gets killed. Don’t be fooled by Jordan’s statement yesterday abandoning Palestine. Many Arab countries and peace-loving nations openly or covertly support Palestine, even Hamas militants.

Qatar is an exception. Including the well-known Al Jazeera, which is the beacon of freedom in the Arab world, known for its bold speech and telling the truth. Of course, Qatar has always been at odds with Saudi Arabia and was forcibly turned from a peninsula into an island.

Judging from recent active efforts by Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Mohammed, Qatar sympathizes with the plight of the Palestinian people. Their meeting with the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Borrell, has also achieved some results, including the mutual release of hostages.

Of course, the hostages in Hamas' hands are of greater value. Palestinian civilians are already surrounded by Israel; it is as easy to catch a Palestinian civilian as it is to catch a sheep for Israel. It is estimated that Israel still cares a lot about the hostages held by Hamas.

Purely from the trend of the war, it seems that the US-Israel coalition is invincible, but in reality, they have fallen into the sea of ​​Palestinian people, which is not what Israel, who wants to be both beautiful and father and son, wants to see. As long as Israel kills one more Palestinian civilian, there will be one more Hamas fighter.

When Israel’s slaughter turn into Hamas' conscription order, Israel will be surrounded by the masses of the Arab world. How can this nation, stained with the blood of executioners, peacefully coexist with the Arab world in the future?

In an environment where everyone is calling for attacks and one can be hit by stones even while walking, how can the Israeli people develop peacefully in the future? The Israeli people have sown hatred