South Korea announces the partial suspension of the implementation of the Panmunjom Declaration Military Agreement What impact will this have? What other information is worth paying attention to?

Dismantling of agreements between the US and Russia undermines security framework.

Yun Hi-yue probably understands a new skill in the West and the United States - tearing up treaties.

During this period, Europe, the United States, and Russia have been busy doing such things, such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, and last year’s New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which has already been “BBQed”. The security frameworks of Russia, Europe, and the United States have been almost completely dismantled.

Looking back at the Panmunjom Declaration of 2018, and now seeing the tense situation between North Korea and South Korea, who can imagine that in less than five years, it has become the way it is today? Turning their backs on each other is faster than breaking up…

The Panmunjom Declaration, also known as the “April 27 Declaration,” is called the “Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity, and Unification of the Korean Peninsula” by South Korea, and the “Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity, and Unification of the Korean Peninsula” by North Korea.

This declaration was jointly signed by the then South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korea after their summit meeting on April 27, 2018.

There is a lot of content in the declaration, of which the parts unrelated to the military mainly involve:

• South and North Korea confirm the principle of self-determination of the nation’s destiny and will create a new situation of improving and developing relations by earnestly implementing the joint declarations and agreements already made.
• South and North Korea will initiate dialogue and negotiations in various fields, including high-level talks, as soon as possible, and strive to implement the consensus reached at the summit meeting.
• South and North Korea will establish a joint liaison office in the Kaesong area to facilitate official consultations and ensure the smooth progress of civilian exchanges and cooperation.
• Joint participation in international events such as the 2018 Asian Games to demonstrate the intelligence and unity of the nation.
• Holding meetings between the Red Cross societies of South and North Korea to discuss and negotiate issues such as the reunion of separated families. A reunion event for separated families will be held on August 15, 2018.
• South Korean President Moon Jae-in will visit Pyongyang in the autumn of 2018.

As for the military-related content, there is more:

1. South and North Korea have decided to completely cease all hostile acts that may lead to military tension and conflict in all spaces, including the ground, sea, and air. Starting from May 1, all hostile acts in the vicinity of the Military Demarcation Line, including loudspeaker broadcasts and the dissemination of leaflets, will be stopped, and tools will be withdrawn, making the non-military zone a peace zone.
2. South and North Korea have decided to create a peaceful zone in the northern boundary area of the western sea to prevent sudden military conflicts and ensure the safety of fisheries production.
3. South and North Korea will take various measures to ensure military security and promote mutual cooperation, exchanges, and contacts. In order to promptly and effectively discuss and handle military issues between the two sides, South and North Korea will hold frequent meetings between defense ministers and other military department talks, and a generals-level military meeting will be held before May. Building a solid and permanent peace mechanism on the peninsula and ending the abnormal ceasefire state on the peninsula to establish a strong peace mechanism are urgent historical missions.
4. South and North Korea reaffirm the non-aggression agreement of not using any form of force against each other and will strictly abide by this agreement.
5. After eliminating military tension and establishing military mutual trust, South and North Korea will gradually disarm.
6. South and North Korea have decided to announce the end of the war on the occasion of the 65th anniversary of the signing of the Armistice Agreement, promote the transformation of the armistice mechanism, and strive to achieve a three-way or four-way meeting between South Korea, North Korea, and the United States or China, in order to establish a solid and permanent peace mechanism.
7. South and North Korea affirm their common goal of achieving denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through complete nuclear abandonment. South and North Korea agree that the series of measures taken by the North have significant and far-reaching implications for the denuclearization of the peninsula, and both sides will fulfill their respective responsibilities and play their roles. South and North Korea have decided to make active efforts to win the support and cooperation of the international community for the denuclearization of the peninsula.

It is not known which aspects of the agreement South Korea has terminated now. Although it will not immediately have significant consequences, an escalation of confrontation between the two sides is certain.

As a president who adheres to a tough policy towards North Korea, Yu Xiyue probably has no psychological obstacles to tearing up the agreements signed by Moon Jae-in, after all, a child doesn’t care about his father’s fields…

The Increasing Tensions in the Korean Peninsula

I have to admit that the current world situation is developing in an increasingly uncontrollable direction. The international maps and rules established since World War II are rapidly disintegrating.

Following the suspension and termination of a series of arms control treaties by both the United States and Russia, such as the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the hostile relationship between South Korea and North Korea has also escalated.

Although we all know that the relationship between North and South Korea has always been in a state of fluctuation since the Korean War, alternating between periods of easing and tension, we should also be aware that most wars do not break out suddenly, but are the result of years, or even decades, of gradual accumulation until the contradictions between the two sides reach a point of no return – and then war breaks out unavoidably.

Just like the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it went through round after round of NATO expansion in Eastern Europe and countless protests from Russia, and various parties even signed agreements similar to the Minsk Protocol, attempting to avoid a final conflict. But in the end, war inevitably broke out. This was a process that accumulated over decades.

Therefore, although the relationship between the two Koreas can be considered a model for ceasefire agreements among nations, it is also one of the few in the history of warfare. However, we must always remain vigilant, as the fundamental contradictions between these two countries are systemic, stemming from the contradiction between their social systems and beliefs, making them extremely difficult to resolve. Maintaining the current status quo is already the best result achieved through the utmost efforts of all parties to exercise restraint.

Although the current government of Yun Seok-yeol has only suspended part of the effectiveness of the “Panmunjom Declaration Military Domain Implementation Agreement,” it is actually the most crucial part of it.

The original text of this agreement can be found on the Internet, so I won’t go into too much detail here. In general, it is an attempt and declaration of goodwill by former South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un to establish more military mutual trust, reduce military misjudgments, and decrease military activities near the ceasefire line.

Today, the decision of the Yun Seok-yeol government to abolish these goodwill measures is indeed a very dangerous signal. The stability of the Korean Peninsula is not only important for these two countries, but also plays a crucial role in our country, the entire East Asian region, and even the global situation.

This region is the gateway to Northeast China and the front line of competition in various fields such as Sino-US diplomacy, technology, military, and trade. A slight misstep could lead to irreparable losses.

Overall, since the founding of our country, our policies and measures regarding the Korean Peninsula have been relatively successful. We stabilized the situation on our northeastern border through a decisive war and subsequently avoided the escalation of conflicts in this region through a series of diplomatic efforts, which has resulted in decades of peace and development. We have also developed good diplomatic and trade relations with both North Korea and South Korea, maintaining peace and stable development.

However, the world situation is always rapidly changing. The increasing hostility between North and South Korea is something we must be vigilant of at all times. South Koreans have anxiety about the growing military strength of their northern neighbor, as well as the pain of seeing their own advantageous industries being eroded while our national power continues to increase.

How can we strive to maintain a balance and mutual trust between countries under such changing circumstances? Merely using diplomatic rhetoric is not enough. We should also enhance communication, eliminate misunderstandings, and most importantly, enable all parties to gain more benefits from their respective developments.

South Korea’s Termination of Part of “Panmunjom Declaration” Agreement Raises Tensions.

Translation: South Korea’s Termination of Part of “Panmunjom Declaration” Agreement Raises Tensions. South Korea unilaterally suspending part of the effectiveness of the “Military Domain Implementation Agreement of the Panmunjom Declaration” is actually a result of the impact and influence brought by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to South Korea. Due to Hamas' sudden attack on Israel, causing significant losses to Israel, they are concerned that if someday North Korea launches a sudden attack on South Korea like Hamas, it will be even more difficult for South Korea to defend itself.

In fact, as early as October 11th, when the new South Korean Minister of National Defense, Shin Won-sik, inspected the combat execution system for countering North Korea’s long-range artillery threats, he expressed the need to expedite the suspension of the “919 Military Agreement”. This “919 Military Agreement” is actually a supplementary part of the “Military Domain Implementation Agreement of the Panmunjom Declaration”, which stipulates that both sides of the Korean Demilitarized Zone be designated as no-fly zones, prohibiting mutual reconnaissance, surveillance, and provocation between the military forces of North and South Korea.

From October 11th to November 20th, after more than a month, South Korea finally terminated part of this agreement. It can be confirmed that the part South Korea terminated is the cancellation of the no-fly zones on both sides of the Korean Demilitarized Zone, allowing South Korea to approach and conduct surveillance activities on North Korea. This will enable South Korea to promptly and effectively detect North Korea’s military movements and prevent situations where South Korea does not have enough time to respond to a sudden attack from North Korea.

However, South Korea’s actions will definitely provoke North Korea’s anger. With North Korea’s fearless and bold character, if South Korea can approach and monitor North Korea, then North Korea will frequently engage in cross-border provocations and demonstrations against South Korea. This will further deteriorate the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

朝韩冲突：China-US tensions，US support for South Korea

The Yangtze River and Han River, the 38th parallel line, remarkable historical similarities.

The world has already seen the intense conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and between Israel and Palestine, so the US military-industrial complex will certainly not miss the conflict between North and South Korea.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation has just concluded, and the Biden administration has made a series of political statements on the US-China relationship, hoping to ease the tensions. However, as a pragmatic country, the United States, the Secretary of Defense, has stated that he has received instructions from the president to accelerate the delivery of weapons to Taiwan, China.

As the world’s largest arms dealer, we cannot expect the US to learn from the failures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and other countries, and not disrupt the new order in China, which is what the US president is interested in politically and economically.

As for the conflict between North and South Korea, which has been a hot spot for more than 70 years, it is like a live volcano, and the US factor plays a huge role in the outbreak of the conflict.

The United States currently has important political interests in building a military encirclement of China. The consensus reached by the two parties is to engage in ideological struggle against China and boost the confidence of US allies in the region through proactive actions.

In Northeast Asia, South Korea and Japan are strategic support points for the US in countering China and Russia.

The United States is re-arming Japan. Japan is engaged in territorial disputes with China in the East China Sea and provoking tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

As for South Korea, we have seen the new defense minister’s aggressive stance towards China. This politician threatened that if the Korean War were to happen again, anyone who dares to help North Korea would suffer unbearable consequences.

The confidence of South Korea’s national security offensive comes from the United States, which has deployed tactical offensive weapons to South Korea, which are used for strategic deterrence against North Korea’s nuclear facilities.

We can compare the conflict between North and South Korea to the Chu-Han contention at the end of the Qin Dynasty. As the world hegemon, the United States supports South Korea and Japan to counter China and Russia. The historical issues between South and North Korea have become the fuse, igniting the summit in Northeast Asia to disrupt China-Russia cooperation, thus creating conditions for the US to divide and conquer.

South Korea has received promises from the United States to support the reunification of the Korean Peninsula, as in the Korean War, which is a winning tool for South Korean politicians to gain popular support.

The 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, initiated by the United States, South Korea, and North Korea, has become a scrap of paper with the change of political power in the United States. The US national credit is like toilet paper. North Korea has realized the reality and returned to a confrontational stance, supporting Russia in the Ukraine conflict as its political choice.

Without positive factors and consensus supporting the relationship between North and South Korea, it becomes exceptionally sensitive, shifting from dialogue to confrontation. Any slight move can cause systemic risks.

South Korea rose to prominence with the support of the US military during the Vietnam War, and it prospered with the transfer of the semiconductor industry from the US and Europe. Now that the US wants to rebuild its domestic manufacturing, the decline of South Korea is inevitable. If South Korea wants to maintain its status as a developed economy, following the US into war is one of the few paths for development.

半岛核裁军与统一前途的复杂性

The greatest significance of this declaration in its foreign propaganda at that time was the mutual efforts to achieve denuclearization and disarmament of the Korean Peninsula. The North has no intention of denuclearization, and the South has no intention of disarmament either. It is very strange for Gaolang to call it a tearing up. There is a kind of Russian claim that the five big countries should maintain the principle of the P5 possessing nuclear weapons, that is, not recognizing the nuclear status of other countries. But in fact, other “violators” have already possessed nuclear weapons, which is itself very ridiculous. In the future, there will only be more and more countries breaking through the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Even from the perspective of colonialism and national independence, it is unlikely that the future of the Korean Peninsula will be peacefully unified. On the contrary, division may cause an even longer tragedy.

South Korea Suspends Part of Panmunjom Declaration

“The Panmunjom Declaration” is a declaration for the peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula, which has now been openly torn up by the government of Moon Jae-in.

Today, Han Dae-su, the second-in-command of South Korea, presided over an emergency cabinet meeting in Seoul. The meeting voted in favor of a motion to partially suspend the effectiveness of the “Panmunjom Declaration Military Area Implementation Agreement.” Moon Jae-in, the leader of South Korea, happily approved.

The core content of the partial suspension is mainly the “Panmunjom Declaration Military Area Implementation Agreement,” which includes:

On the side of South Korea, immediately resume surveillance and monitoring activities on North Korea in the military demarcation zone.

Han Dae-su even proudly said, “The South Korean military’s ability to identify and respond to threats from the North will be greatly enhanced.”

The international political and military situation is always uncertain, with conflicts arising one after another. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ended, and the conflict between Israel and Palestine follows. This is followed by the unrest in northern Myanmar, and then the instability on the Korean Peninsula…

As the saying goes, beauty is the source of evil in this world. The best way for beauty to maintain its hegemony is to provoke regional tensions and prevent everyone from living a good life.

The “Panmunjom Declaration” is a declaration spontaneously signed by both sides of the North and South during the Korean War, aiming to provide a guiding document for the reunification and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

• In April 2018, Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un met at Panmunjom and issued the “Panmunjom Declaration.”
• In September of the same year, they signed the “September Pyongyang Joint Declaration” in Pyongyang.
• At the same time, South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo and North Korean Vice-Minister of the People’s Armed Forces Gwang Pyong-soo signed the “Panmunjom Declaration Military Area Implementation Agreement,” referred to as the “September 19th Military Agreement” by South Korea. This agreement served as a supplementary agreement to the “September Pyongyang Joint Declaration.”

Among them, the “Panmunjom Declaration Military Area Implementation Agreement” aims to eliminate the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula, end military hostilities, including the demilitarized zone, and build the Korean Peninsula into a “permanent peace zone.”

The agreement clearly stipulates that both sides will cease all hostile actions in the border area and establish a no-fly zone.

The North and South Korean sides have reached a consensus on core issues such as promoting the denuclearization of the peninsula, enhancing North-South exchanges and cooperation, and striving to build a permanent peace zone on the Korean Peninsula.

As for the effects, I’m sure everyone already knows. Both sides have dismantled the loudspeakers used for broadcasting hostile messages and ceased propaganda leaflet drops.

The reason for South Korea’s unilateral termination of the agreement is simple. Over a period of time, North Korea has not adhered to the terms of the agreement, causing unfavorable effects on South Korea’s national defense and security.

As observers, we may think that this is your internal affairs, and third parties are happy to see it. But now that one side wants to break the agreement, it is also a great pity.

To both the North and South, it’s fine to argue and fight, but don’t go too far. If you go too far, there will be no good outcome for anyone.

Suspending the North Korean armistice agreement?

The first reaction is to suspend some provisions of the Korean Armistice Agreement. I thought to myself, if South Korea didn’t even sign this provision, why suspend it? Oh, it turns out it was signed later with Kim III. Well, no problem then.

Anyway, treaties can be signed, and they can be torn. As for whether you South and North Korea want to start fighting again, that’s your own business.

朝鲜与俄罗斯的联盟对中国来说既有利又有挑战。它对于中国在台海问题上的压力分担有好处，同时也能够让中国争取时间来完成产业升级和能源安全。然而，一旦局势恶化，中国需要收拾朝俄对中国和平发展造成的烂摊子。因此，尽管朝俄联盟对中国可能产生一些潜在利益，但中国需要保持警惕，并寻求在复杂的局势下保持稳定和中立。

In his second year in office, Moon Jae-in reached the Panmunjom Declaration with North Korea. However, pushing for the signing of a “peace agreement” between South Korea and North Korea is the ultimate goal that Moon Jae-in desires to achieve.

According to people around him, the ultimate goal of the “peace agreement between South and North Korea” is to make the US withdraw from the Korean Peninsula. Unfortunately, this is just wishful thinking; it’s plain and simple that the US is not going to agree to this.

Moon Jae-in’s stance is completely at odds with the current policies of the US government. If South and North Korea sign a peace agreement, the US will lose its legitimate reason to stay in the Korean Peninsula, and even the US forces stationed in Japan will be shaken. This is fatal to the US global strategy.

Furthermore, if South Korea no longer faces the threat from the North, there will be less need for the construction of a US-Japan-South Korea military alliance, and US military expansion in Northeast Asia will be severely affected. For the current Biden administration, which has the established goal of “containing China,” it will also lose a vital strategic position for close-range containment of China.

Unfortunately, not only has Moon Jae-in’s pursuit of a “peace agreement” not been achieved, but his own political legacy has also been gradually abandoned by the government of Yoon Seok-yue. Although South Korea has only partially suspended the effectiveness of the “Military Domain Implementation Agreement of the Panmunjom Declaration,” it is the most crucial part of it.

The future situation on the Korean Peninsula is full of variables.

Here is an article about the Korean Peninsula. Have a look if you are interested.

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Lately, there has been frequent interaction between Russia and North Korea.

First, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu visited North Korea, where Kim Jong-un showed him the weapons he was proud of, such as drones that looked a lot like “Global Hawk” and the Mars-series missiles that have been making headlines.

Actually, Vice Chairman Li of China also participated in the 70th anniversary commemoration of the Korean War victory in North Korea. However, Kim Jong-un first met with Shoigu in person and hosted a banquet for him. It wasn’t until the day after the military parade ended that Kim Jong-un met with Chairman Li.

But there’s more. On September 12th, Kim traveled to Russia by a special train and arrived at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s Far East Amur Oblast. He visited the “Soyuz-2” rocket launch site and observed the progress of the “Angara” rocket launch pad construction together with Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, after receiving the news, the United States went crazy and issued “warnings” to North Korea five times, saying that there would be consequences if they supplied weapons to Russia!

So, why did North Korea and Russia suddenly get closer?

And why did the United States get anxious when North Korea and Russia got closer?

What impact does this have on China?

First and foremost, we need to consider the interests of Russia. From Russia’s perspective, Kim Jong-un’s visit is considered unprecedentedly significant.

The distance between the place where Putin and Kim Jong-un met, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, and Moscow is 5,800 kilometers. It takes 6 to 7 hours to fly by plane. When have we ever seen “Great Putin” leave Moscow thousands of kilometers away to meet another head of state?

Because Putin has a request of North Korea.

Let’s fast forward to September 21st, 2022. Putin announced a “partial mobilization” and called up 300,000 reserve personnel to participate in a special military operation.

However, with the mobilization underway, the Russian military has encountered numerous issues in logistics support and mobilization work. First, Russian media reported that 1.5 million sets of winter clothing in Russian army reserves had disappeared, causing an uproar within Russian society.

Then, Russian media revealed that there were serious issues with local conscription offices and training bases. For example, there was a severe shortage of various materials, and mobilized soldiers were forced to pay for their own bulletproof vests, winter clothing, sleeping bags, moisture-proof mats, and warm boots, resulting in price hikes for these items in military product stores.

Some mobilized soldiers received severely damaged AK-47 rifles that were totally unusable, and in some regions, new recruits weren’t provided with any military training by local conscription offices and were sent directly to the front lines.

But as news of the deaths of the newly mobilized soldiers began to reach the country, this act of treating soldiers as “disposable” triggered great anger among the Chinese people! Putin had to urgently replace one of his trusted confidants, the Deputy Minister of Defense in charge of logistics supplies for fifteen years, Bulgakoff, and appointed Mitsuzake as his successor.

The above only represents a part of the problems that have been exposed in the face of war in Russia.

Russia is not faring well on the Ukrainian battlefield, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is turning into a World War I-like situation, with neither side making substantial progress. It has become a war of attrition, with both sides constantly needing more ammunition and sending more lives to the front lines, and we’ll see who can sustain this until the end.

After running out of ammunition supplied by the US and the West, Biden urgently mobilized Eastern European countries to start up arms factories to produce ammunition for Ukraine.

Russia is also facing an ammunition shortage.

In 2022, Russia spent nearly 12 million rounds of ammunition on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, and it is estimated that nearly 7 million rounds will be spent this year. However, Russian ammunition factories can only produce 2.5 million rounds per year. Given Russia’s current industrial production capacity, there is a severe shortage in this area.

Many people wonder why there is such a large gap in strength between Russia, which inherited 70% of the wealth from the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union itself.

Because the Soviet Union adopted a planned economy, each member republic was only responsible for producing one item in the planned production initiative. Even though Russia inherited 70-80% of the wealth, the loss of some critical links has disrupted many industrial chains and industrial processes.

When we observe the Russian military offensive in the Ukrainian battlefields, we can see a pattern of staggered missile launches. The reason is simple: Russia cannot produce a large number of missiles at once and can only accumulate a stockpile before launching them all at once.

Since they cannot meet their own needs and have to rely on foreign aid, there aren’t many countries capable and willing to “assist Russia with military supplies” under the watchful eyes of the US and the West. China has repeatedly reiterated its position that it will not provide military assistance to either side in the Russia-Ukraine war, leaving only North Korea.

However, North Korea’s industrial capabilities are not strong.

North Korea’s steel production in 2022 was about 700,000 tons, equivalent to one-third of Belarus, one-tenth of Ukraine, one-twentieth of Iran, and one-sixtieth of South Korea’s crude steel production. South Korea’s naval vessels alone are worth more than all of North Korea’s naval vessels.

However, North Korea knows how to spend its limited resources wisely, such as on the defense industry.

The North Korean military adheres to “the age of artillery,” and artillery is the backbone of the North Korean military. It’s not widely known, but North Korea is the world’s number one artillery power. According to reports from US media, the North Korean People’s Army is equipped with over 20,000 artillery pieces, ranking first in the world.

Crucially, North Korean weapon systems originate from the former Soviet Union and are compatible with Russian weapon systems. For example, various types of multiple rocket launchers, the Type 73 light machine gun, AK-47 assault rifles, and other old-fashioned weapons are still in strong production capacity in North Korea. Especially the 152mm long-range cannon produced by North Korea can be directly used by Russia.

There are also ammunition for Soviet-made weapons stored in North Korea. Although many of them have turned into duds due to their age, the large quantity still remains, and it wouldn’t be a problem to find a few million live rounds among them.

Additionally, besides the shortage of ammunition, there is another powerful weapon on the Ukrainian battlefield: drones.

Recently, Moscow has been repeatedly hit by drone attacks, and Ukraine has been using drones to attack targets within Russian territory on a regular basis.

In terms of attack power, drones are not as effective as weapons provided by the West, such as the Hellfire missile or the “Storm Shadow” cruise missile. But it’s difficult for the Russian military’s air defense systems to detect and intercept these harassment attacks. Therefore, drone attacks have become an important means for Ukraine to counterattack against Russia.

Later, after being informed, the Russian military launched counterattacks against the Ukrainian military with drones imported from Iran, which also achieved good results.

However, although cheap and effective in attacks, drones consume a lot of resources. So besides running out of ammunition, Russia also needs a large number of drones.

Now let’s look at North Korea. In July of this year, they announced their first domestically-produced drones: the “Sinseong”-4 and “Sinseong”-9. From their appearance, they are very similar to the US Global Hawk and “Reaper” drones. This may be because North Korea obtained the technology through special channels and then reverse-engineered it.

So, drones and ammunition, these are the two things that North Korea can provide to Russia, making North Korea the only country that can help Russia to keep up the fight in the Ukrainian front and the most viable option.

What does North Korea want in return?

If we look at the geography of North Korea, we can see that there are more mountains than plains, leading to two consequences.

On one hand, there is less arable land, with less than 1.9 million hectares, and the soil is mainly brown soil, with 60% being acidic soil.

On the other hand, mechanized agriculture cannot be effectively implemented due to the geographical conditions, resulting in a significant decline in food production. North Korea cannot sustain itself through self-sufficiency in food production, so it can either rely on assistance from its big brother or purchase food internationally.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, assistance to North Korea was cut off, and the US started imposing sanctions on North Korea after they obtained nuclear weapons. This made it impossible for North Korea to obtain foreign exchange or buy food, leaving them to rely on China and humanitarian aid from the United Nations to survive.

In the past, North Korea had no substantive economic value to offer Russia, and their economic and trade cooperation was limited, with even less assistance provided. Even when the United Nations imposed sanctions on North Korea, Russia did not use its veto power.

But now, the situation has changed.

Russia urgently needs ammunition from North Korea, and North Korea needs food from Russia (as Russia is one of the largest grain producers in the world).

So, the “ammunition-for-food” exchange is a natural consequence, and it will most likely be a long-term agreement. The longer the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, the longer North Korea will exchange ammunition with Russia. This allows North Korea the rare opportunity to address its domestic food security issues. However, does North Korea only want food?

Kim’s appetite is much larger than that.

Why is the US continuously warning North Korea five times not to supply weapons to Russia?

In fact, what the US is afraid of is not only North Korea providing weapons to Russia but also that Russia will provide advanced weapon technology to North Korea.

Although Russia seems to be lagging behind, it still holds many technologies at a high level in the world.

For example, satellite technology, nuclear submarine technology, high-performance fighter jet technology, and so on. Once applied to North Korea, these technologies will quickly unleash tremendous combat power. The US is most afraid of this.

This visit by North Korea with high-ranking officials is of extraordinary significance. Individuals such as Li Bingzhe, the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, and Park Jung-tae, the Minister of the Military Advisory Committee, rarely appear in North Korea’s past diplomatic visits.

South Korean media described it as “a pouring out of North Korea’s military and political power.”

From space to the navy to military supplies, these high-ranking officials can directly negotiate and discuss cooperation details with Russia. Their presence indicates that North Korea’s visit to Russia aims to “get something from Russia.”

Actually, this kind of “transaction” between the two countries didn’t start now. In recent years, North Korea has successfully conducted three nuclear tests, and the yield of the explosions has become larger and larger, even achieving the weaponization of plutonium. Without the support of Russia, North Korea’s nuclear weapons would have been difficult to significantly advance in a short period.

After Kim Jong-un’s first meeting with Putin in 2019, North Korea quickly produced three improved versions of their Pukguksong-class submarine-launched ballistic missiles and achieved hypersonic missiles less than two years later.

In 2022, North Korea was the first to recognize the independence of the two “Donetsk” and “Luhansk” provinces in Ukraine. Less than a year later, they successfully tested the “Hwasong-18” intercontinental missile. The timing is quite interesting.

Currently, North Korea is working on a spy satellite. Although the first two launches failed, it is highly likely that North Korea will have a successful spy satellite soon after Kim’s visit to the Vostochny Cosmodrome.

In addition, five days before Kim’s departure, North Korea showcased the scene of launching its first ever nuclear-powered submarine. South Korea and the West unanimously believed that it was an “exaggerated fraud” and that North Korea could not have produced a nuclear-powered submarine so quickly.

We do not know if it is fake, but North Korea will certainly discuss “nuclear submarine technology” with Putin, further strengthen North Korea’s submarine capability, and allow North Korea to form a more threatening “triad strategic nuclear strike capability.”

Then there is the Mars-18 intercontinental ballistic missile mentioned earlier, which is a solid fuel missile with a range that covers the mainland United States. Its performance is significantly better than the Mars-17.

However, Mars-18 has significant stability flaws. When we look at the thousands of kilometers it needs to cover to hit a city target, it’s smaller than a needlepoint. Can the US GPS even be effective, as Russia itself cannot even develop a guidance system, so how can it ensure accuracy?

Moreover, a few intercontinental missiles are far from enough; for it to be truly effective, there must be at least dozens of them. Intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with conventional explosives make no sense; they must be armed with nuclear warheads, with each missile carrying eight warheads. So miniaturizing nuclear warheads is also a problem.

Although China developed nuclear weapons in the 1960s, it wasn’t until the 1980s that they achieved miniaturization. The first hydrogen bomb was a practical nuclear weapon, but it was not a miniaturized one. The practical nuclear weapons were several tons in weight, dropped from planes. On the other hand, miniaturized nuclear weapons were several hundred kilograms and could be launched by missiles. It wasn’t until 1999 when the Dongfeng-31 was completed that we were able to launch miniaturized nuclear warheads at the United States, but it was still relatively difficult. In 2018, with the maturity of the upgraded Dongfeng-31 and the Dongfeng-41, we truly possessed a reliable nuclear deterrence, and it has only been a few years since then.

Moreover, for North Korea, there is the THAAD system on land, the Aegis system at sea, and satellites in the sky. This extremely bulky missile, along with the huge flames produced during launch, would easily be detected, and the ballistic trajectory would be calculated the first time, making it highly likely to be intercepted. The nuclear warhead wouldn’t even be able to be launched.

Therefore, this inevitably involves cooperation between Russia and North Korea in the satellite and aerospace domain to help North Korea improve the successful launch rate and accuracy of its intercontinental missiles.

If it is agreed upon, North Korea will truly possess the direct capability to launch a nuclear strike on the mainland United States.

Is Putin willing to give such a great gift?

In the past, it was impossible, but now the situation is hard to say.

If Russia provides advanced technology to North Korea, North Korea’s military capabilities would be enhanced, and this would inevitably divert the attention and resources of the US, which is clearly in Russia’s best interests.

Moreover, the US itself has initiated the first move in nuclear proliferation by deciding to transfer nuclear submarine technology to Australia, and the fuel used by nuclear submarines can actually be used to produce nuclear weapons. Since they have broken the rules of the game, there is no need for them to worry about my concerns.

However–

It is necessary to deal a dose of cold water. In terms of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, the actual effectiveness may not meet expectations.

It has been 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the weapons and equipment that the Soviet Union provided to North Korea remain in the era of T-62 tanks from 50 years ago. Therefore, North Korea’s defense industry is still based on improvements made to weapons from the previous generation, such as artillery, rockets, rifles, machine guns, and the ballistic missiles for which North Korea is known, all of which are from 50 years ago.

Additionally, North Korea’s defense industry mainly refers to its ground forces, while its air force equipment has still not been fully developed. Even second-generation fighter jets like the MiG-21 were directly provided by the Soviet Union as complete products.

Military drones require precise target identification, real-time data transmission, and the ability to guide other weapons. The technological level of remote control platforms for drones far exceeds that of the cockpit of a MiG-21. Controlling the drone requires two pilots, and the technological content of the remote control cockpit far surpasses that of a MiG-21 cockpit. The display screen in the remote control platform requires a large-scale industry.

It is impossible for a country that cannot even produce MiG-21 fighter jets to establish a complete industry for mass-producing military drones. It is nearly impossible, and the only explanation is that they are producing exhibition pieces for their domestic population to see.

There is one other point. Even if North Korea is willing to supply Russia with its stockpile of old-fashioned weapons, the distance between North Korea and Ukraine is 8,000 kilometers, and the only transport route available between Russia and North Korea is the highly seasonal Trans-Siberian Railway. This would make the surveillance of large-scale ammunition transfers very easy and also significantly raise transportation costs.

This determines that, even if North Korea intends to provide this kind of consumable weapons aid, it is unlikely to become a norm in military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. The symbolic significance of this behavior far outweighs its actual significance.

Therefore, what Russia and North Korea need is a–

Deeper strategic appeal from Russia.

Russia’s diplomatic focus has always been on Europe, and it has never been particularly interested in North Korea, whether it was the Soviet Union or present-day Russia. In the end, North Korea has always been on the periphery of Russia’s political and diplomatic sphere, and they would only pay attention to North Korea when the Soviet Union (and now Russia) faces setbacks in Europe.

During the US-Soviet competition for supremacy in the 1970s and 1980s, relations between the Soviet Union and North Korea were quite close. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and as Russia sought to align with the West in the 1990s, the relationship between Russia and North Korea became less meaningful.

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the external environment for Russia has worsened dramatically, with almost all of Europe and the US collectively alienated from Russia. As a result, Russia has once again turned to North Korea to raise its flag.

This has always been the way the Soviet Union and Russia have treated North Korea and is also a “pragmatic” diplomatic approach.

Even–

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Through years of experience in the Cold War, Russia has developed a keen sense of geopolitics and knows how to fight against the US. North Korea is undoubtedly an effective tool for the US confrontation. When it comes to playing the “proxy” game, both Russia and the US have already mastered it.

Considering the comprehensive sanctions that the US has imposed on both Russia and North Korea, currently, there is no substantial way for the US to prevent their cooperation. The US has even referred to these sanctions as “toothless.”

From this perspective, Russia remains a true global power.

It can still “deeply penetrate” into East Asia through its influence on North Korea, inputting advanced weapons and technology and making the US sanctions on North Korea instantly “collapse.” In Europe, Russia is almost single-handedly facing the entire West. In Syria and Africa, the military presence of Russia continues to be significant. Russia maintains a considerable influence over major powers such as China and India. This is enough to prove Russia’s enormous global influence.

And this is precisely the influence that the US has been trying to eliminate since the Ukraine conflict. It is a deeper strategic appeal that Russia pursues.

North Korea’s demands are twofold: ensuring that its political power is not subverted and finding a way to lift the sanctions and gain recognition from the international community.

To achieve these two points, the key does not lie with China or Russia; it lies with the US. Therefore, all of Kim’s decision-making considerations, including his continuous missile launches to get the attention of the US and force the US to recognize their regime and lift the blockade, are both exasperating and helpless.

After more than a year of observation and contemplation, North Korea has decided to interfere in the Russia-Ukraine conflict to provoke the US.

For Russia, based on the current war situation, it is basically impossible for them to expand their gains by their own efforts alone.

Therefore, it is most beneficial for Russia to form some kind of alliance, even though Putin is building relationships all over the world. Besides North Korea and the ambivalent Iran, there are few countries willing to stand on Russia’s side.

So Russia has started playing the North Korea card. Coincidentally, Kim also needs someone to help him attract the attention of the US. Therefore, the two countries have embarked on close interaction.

As a result, North Korea and Russia have been in the same trench long ago, participating in the game in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the peninsula situation, which has actually achieved further political interests and goals for each side.

The above is the underlying logic behind the recent rapprochement between Russia and North Korea.

What impact does this have on China?

Is it a good thing for North Korea to possess a powerful “triad of nuclear deterrence”?

Of course, it is not a good thing.

The larger North Korea’s nuclear deterrence capabilities become, the more unpredictable they will be. In the event of a nuclear war, the countries around the Korean Peninsula would be the first to suffer.

However, if the US continues to refuse to change its policy toward North Korea, then Kim can only seek an alternative and try to drag neighboring countries into the conflict, gaining an advantage in the game and relying on China as a last resort.

Because once the nominal “North Korea-Russia alliance” is formed, the West will see China as a member of the North Korea-Russia-China trilateral alliance, regardless of whether China recognizes it or not. China cannot simply act independently.

It is evident that this is what Russia wants, to have the countries in the East share part of the pressure when they lack their own share of the problems. If the US remains unchanged in its policy toward North Korea, China has no choice but to step forward and clean up the mess caused by North Korea’s confrontation with the US.

However, everything has two sides–

Does North Korea’s rapprochement with Russia have any benefits for China?

Of course, there are some.

Because China’s reunification has not been completed yet, the best situation for us is to have Russia and North Korea hold back the US and the West, while we seize the opportunity to complete industrial upgrading and achieve energy security, making our final preparations for the last sprint.

Suppose a Taiwan Strait conflict erupts. The best way for us is also to evenly distribute the pressure.

Looking at the world as a whole, Russia, North Korea, and China are the only ones capable and bold enough to confront the US head-on.

Although Russia appears to be lagging behind, if a standoff occurs, as long as we allocate a portion of our huge manufacturing capacity to supply Russia, combined with Russia’s national mobilization, the combat power of the Russian military won’t be at its current level.

Then there is North Korea, although relatively weaker, their determination and momentum cannot be underestimated.

When the Ukrainian battlefield, the North Korean battlefield, and the Taiwan Strait battlefield erupt simultaneously, the US will have to divide its forces to cope with all three directions.

When the US was at its peak during the time of President Bush, the US military was walking across the globe. However, even during that time, their official position was that the US would hope to win two local wars at the same time.

Now, 20 years later, the overall strength of the US has declined significantly, and if they need to win the wars in Ukraine, North Korea, and the Taiwan Strait simultaneously, it would mean the death of the US.

And it may not just be three battlefields; if the US gets trapped in these three directions, the Middle East will not remain peaceful either. Israel, without its foothold, will become a prime opportunity for revenge within the Arab world.

That means a fourth front would emerge, and if we add the fact that the US' backyard in Latin America is in turmoil, it may indeed be more than just three battlefields.

Therefore, there is a strategy at play.

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So, we must consider things from a dialectical point of view and seek key points of advantage in unfavorable circumstances.

The first publishing channel: Dianping Xiaowei

The Impact of Including Nuclear Weapons Policy in North Korea’s Constitution

As we all know, when the Armistice Agreement was signed years ago, it was the United States, South Korea, and China who actually entered into a legally binding ceasefire, while there was no formal ceasefire agreement between North and South Korea. Therefore, from a legal perspective, the war is still ongoing, and the Panmunjom Declaration is a patch for this situation.

This was signed by North Korea and the Moon Jae-in government. The direct action clause is to stop border hostilities, and the long-term vision is denuclearization of the peninsula and permanent peace. From this perspective, it is normal for the South Korean government to suspend certain clauses, as both visions may not be practical.

The United States has issued a “warning” stating that the cooperation between Russia and North Korea on satellites is “very concerning” and that it will “not hesitate” to impose sanctions. How do you evaluate this?

Ultimately, the key to denuclearization is not in the hands of South Korea, but in the hands of the United States. As long as the United States does not proactively change its hostile policy towards North Korea, North Korea will always be in a state of survival anxiety. Whether peace is achieved or not, even the United States itself cannot guarantee, it depends on both countries, including the United States.

If termination is going to happen, then let it happen, because if permanent peace is achieved, it will completely deprive the opportunity for the North Korean people to liberate South Korea and reunify the entire peninsula. Even under such circumstances, peaceful reunification would still result in historical legacy problems due to incomplete liquidation of the bourgeoisie, and sooner or later, the truth will come to light.

Some people always mock North Korea with remarks about the standard of living in South Korea, but they overlook the fact that a country must first stand up in order to truly become prosperous and powerful. Otherwise, fate is not in their own hands, and any temporary glory is nothing more than a castle in the air. Let history make a fair judgment.

How do you view North Korea writing its nuclear policy into the constitution? What impacts will it have?

Stopped fighting: 80s generation refused to continue

Post-80s Generation: Did everyone see that? I said I wouldn’t fight him, but he wouldn’t let it go.