Shenzhen adjusts the minimum down payment ratio for second homes to 40% starting from November 23rd How should we view this move? What impacts will it bring?

Violation of rules leads to punishment.

The restrictions imposed on the real estate market have been continuously relaxed, but in reality, the original restrictions did not effectively curb the rise in housing prices. Therefore, I believe that the current series of “rescue” measures also have limited effectiveness.

Going against the rules will always result in punishment according to the rules.

Impact of Policies on the Housing Market: Superficial Measures for Creating Buzz.

This policy has almost no impact on the real estate market. It is a typical insignificant measure added to create a “bullish” atmosphere, and can even be understood as a weird phenomenon created to generate “policy implementation workload”…

Considering the housing prices in Shenzhen, there is no substantial difference between reducing the down payment for the second home to 40% or even 30% or 20%. It is all an attempt to create a multiple-choice question: Can Shenzhen’s real estate market still leverage? Will it dare to leverage?

I really don’t dare…

Now, including Shenzhen, many cities want to completely lift restrictions on home purchases. However, once they do so, it will trigger widespread public debate, forcing local authorities to consider whether these truly effective policies can be implemented.

Therefore, various regions have started a dance with “shackles”, implementing some superficial policies. Seeing that the real estate market has not improved at all, they pass on the phenomena and decision-making power to higher authorities.

Everyone must understand a fundamental principle: the more developed a city is, the less it relies on land finance, and the more it needs to transfer payments to relatively poor areas. So many people feel that the sluggishness of the real estate market in major cities is the most alarming, but upon further thought, it seems not quite right.

In financial circles, there is a widely circulated saying, “Shanghai, you will have more pressure next year”…. That’s how it is.

In the past, it was one thing when major cities and economically developed regions had surplus finance. However, when their own financial situation undergoes changes, it becomes another matter. The crying child has something to eat, not to mention the fact that this time the child is really crying, right?

Thinking in an interesting direction, major cities may not want their citizens to withdraw money saved in the city. Although the money from land sales is not directly transferred, it will have an indirect effect because the overall local fiscal revenue will increase.

At least for now, the finances of major cities can still withstand it. If the citizens are too generous with their donations, this significant income will be so conspicuous that it will be difficult not to transfer payments…

Adjustments in Shenzhen’s Housing Market

In fact, this time Shenzhen’s adjustment is not only about the down payment ratio for second homes, but also about the criteria for defining ordinary residential properties.

This adjustment marks a shift in Shenzhen’s strict housing control policies!

The People’s Bank of China Shenzhen Branch issued a notice that starting from the 23rd, the minimum down payment ratio for second homes will be adjusted. The minimum down payment ratio for individual housing loans for second homes will be uniformly adjusted from 70% for ordinary residential properties and 80% for non-ordinary residential properties to 40%. This adjustment lowers the threshold for residents to purchase second homes, which is conducive to better meeting the demand for both essential and improved housing.

On the same day, the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau optimized the criteria for defining ordinary residential properties, removing the price limit of “total actual transaction price below 7.5 million yuan (including 7.5 million yuan)” condition. The criteria for defining ordinary residential properties only retain two conditions: residential building plot ratio and single residential unit area. This adjustment expands the scope of preferential policies for ordinary residential properties, allowing more homebuyers to enjoy tax benefits and reduce the cost of purchasing homes.

There are several points worth noting:

1. Stimulate the release of demand for improved housing in a more effective way.

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Previously, due to the 70% down payment and the 7.5 million yuan threshold, some homeowners in Shenzhen who had a demand for improved housing were unable to switch homes.

It should be noted that the average age in Shenzhen is 33, and the demand for home ownership and settling down in Shenzhen is much higher than in other cities in China. Generally speaking, the first homes for people in Shenzhen are very small due to the high housing prices. This is especially true for traditional areas in the inner city where the space is even smaller.

At a certain age, when they have children, they usually need their parents to come and take care of the children, so the demand for improvement arises.

High down payments, as well as the increased transaction costs due to the 7.5 million yuan standard for ordinary residential properties, greatly restrict the pace of young people in Shenzhen switching homes!

This adjustment will help release their demand, and there will definitely be a wave of trading in the market.

2. The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen will become active again for a while.

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There was a time when every move in Shenzhen’s real estate market served as a trend indicator for the national market.

When Shenzhen started to rise, the rest of the country followed suit with a delay. When Shenzhen started to decline, other places in the country inevitably experienced a downward trend too!

In fact, Shenzhen’s dependence on the real estate industry is not that great, but it has once had the most active real estate transaction market. The young people in Shenzhen are at the forefront in terms of their perception and sensitivity to the market.

Whether it is speculation or investment, the activity of the real estate market indirectly promotes the activity of the financial market.

This is also a symbol of Shenzhen’s economy, as the skyrocketing housing prices reflect the rapid development of Shenzhen’s economy.

3. Shenzhen’s relaxation is a further reflection of the national real estate market situation.

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Without going into specific details, I have previously predicted that more cities will adopt more relaxation measures, which is an irreversible trend.

The real estate markets in Guangzhou and Shanghai have already loosened, so will cities like Beijing and Shenzhen relax their restrictions? The high inventory of second-hand houses in Shenzhen indicates something, doesn’t it?

Moreover, there is indeed a need to alleviate the high inventory of second-hand houses in Shenzhen.

But now, I wonder if the people in Shenzhen still have confidence in once again lifting the real estate market?

Shenzhen’s property market faces challenges; policies aim to stabilize prices.

Shenzhen has seen a significant drop, directly transitioning from a logic that suppresses speculation to a logic that encourages self-occupation.

Although it is a top-tier first-tier city, Shenzhen’s real estate market is also filled with coldness under the background of a general downturn. From January to October this year, the overall supply of newly built residential properties in Shenzhen reached 4.6155 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 30.74%, while the transactions totaled 3.0955 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.29%. The overall trend clearly leans towards a buyer’s market. It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain the existing price system.

Although the policy opposes skyrocketing housing prices, it is more alert to a sharp decline.

In fact, the official property control policy has always aimed at stabilizing housing prices rather than lowering them. The goal is to exchange time for space, gradually release pressure, use income growth to lower the housing price-to-income ratio, and solve the problem of real estate bubbles. However, as a highly financialized and investment-oriented commodity, it is difficult for the price to remain stable in the long term. As long as it is a financial market, as long as there is investment speculation, there are various aspects of human nature, including herd behavior and irrational enthusiasm, as well as various forms of “irrationality” and chasing after rises and falls.

The relatively active market transactions maintained under various suppressive policies by the government for a long time are due to the expectation that the “housing prices will always rise” is at work. The reasons are nothing more than “excessive monetary issuance, money will definitely lose value in the long run”, and “urbanization is in progress, there is always a constant influx of population into large cities, and there is never a shortage of purchasers”.

However, now, various economic and population data have greatly shaken the confidence of the bullish market, and the three-year pandemic has disrupted residents' balance sheets, leaving more and more people with no money. Meanwhile, the official policies to control housing prices still have strong inertia, resulting in some trends that do not align with the regulatory goals, and even hidden concerns about systemic risks.

The importance of real estate to China is beyond doubt. As a consumption sector, it has an extremely long industrial chain, driving various heavy industries in the upstream and various light industries, electromechanical industries, and related services in the downstream. As an asset, the real estate market is, in fact, China’s largest capital market. Real estate and land are the most important collateral in China’s circulation of debt, they are the most important carriers of China’s credit expansion and monetary endogenous growth (yes, real estate is a money-printing machine rather than a so-called “water reservoir”. Mortgage loans themselves create a large amount of new money), and real estate is also the largest part of household wealth, directly affecting consumer and investment confidence.

Land transfer fees are an important component of China’s local finances and the main source of funding for large-scale infrastructure projects. Without substantial financial support from land transfer fees, the “infrastructure frenzy” is unimaginable. No public tax system can afford China’s intensity of infrastructure construction in the past two decades.

Although asset bubbles can bring negative effects, in reality, no one will voluntarily burst their own asset bubbles and self-destruct. Because in the competitive environment, a large asset bubble means high equity valuation and low financing costs, compared to competitors with smaller asset bubbles (low equity valuation and high financing costs), it means stronger credit expansion and resource mobilization capabilities.

In the face of two balance sheets with large and mutually competitive asset bubbles, it is a matter of who can hold out longer. The party whose bubble bursts first will have its ownership rights taken over by the other party, the latter will restore its own balance sheet and “solidify” the bubble. In the new era of the cold war, as a major rival, the United States is desperately maintaining its asset bubble. Preventing the collapse of the real estate market from causing China to fall into a Japanese-style balance sheet recession is also an important policy goal for China.

Of course, including Shenzhen, the most stringent purchase restriction policies in several first-tier cities, for products that are of first-time homebuyer nature or for property improvement, their theoretical purchasing power can be further released. However, whether the purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will return to the policy environment of the 2000s with unrestricted purchases still remains to be seen. After all, in the era of the 2020s when strict control over spatial scale has been greatly enhanced and the spatial limits have generally been reached in many first-tier cities, the contraction of real estate supply is different from that of more than a decade ago.

As an economic and industrial center, a capital and financial center at the national and even global level, Shenzhen provides high-income jobs far surpassing other cities, and it is a city of affluent people. Its purchasing power has remained strong in the long term, and in fact, the asset bubble is not significant (it may not be reasonable to measure the vulnerability of housing prices in these cities by using average income indicators that include a large number of medium and low-end jobs). As long as the supply side does not undergo fundamental relaxation, the basic situation of real estate shortage will persist. It would be easy to lose control of housing prices if policies such as purchase restrictions are lifted. The real control of housing prices in first-tier cities happened only in the past two years.

As for the vast majority of third- and fourth-tier cities, as well as some second-tier cities where supply and demand are relatively balanced in the long term and often face oversupply, it is a completely different story.

“Old for New” Policy: A Potential Solution for Housing Market

Useless, I suggest learning from the “Upgrade with old” in Taicang.

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In November, a central enterprise real estate company conducted a marketing campaign called “Upgrade with old”, mainly targeting people who want to replace their old houses.

The main idea is that homebuyers pay a certain amount of earnest money to lock in the housing resources, and then entrust their old houses to the developers for sale. After the developers complete the sale of the old houses, the purchase contract becomes effective, and the buyers make up the remaining purchase payment.

To be honest, the person who came up with this idea did have some brains. However, this plan is still not mature enough because in the current market, what is needed is not just a sale on behalf of others but a “guaranteed sale”. So, if developers can directly purchase second-hand houses like second-hand cars, it will most likely greatly help with sales.

I have compiled some materials and found that Taicang has already come up with an “Upgrade with old” plan at the official level, and it is particularly attractive.

“The person concerned will sell the eligible ordinary commodity housing registered under their name to a designated state-owned company and purchase the newly built commodity housing specified by the state-owned company.”

It’s like directly deducting the price of the new house with the old house.

And this policy is not yet complete. From the perspective of the policy makers, the old houses purchased by state-owned enterprises will be used for “affordable housing supply”.

Doesn’t it give a taste of “internal circulation”? The essential logic is a “housing ticket” logic starting from second-hand houses. In Taicang’s plan, the deduction amount of the old house does not exceed 60% of the price of the new house.

Let’s summarize the whole chain:

Local land auction, state-owned enterprises winning the land, constructing new houses, urban residents deducting the price of old houses for purchase, making up 40% of the purchase price, and then using the purchased old houses (understood as 40% discount) for “affordable housing”.

In this way, land auction is solved, new houses are solved, buyers pay only 40% of the housing price and live in bigger and new houses, the local government obtains old houses for “affordable housing” and solves the housing problem for low-income people.

The entire real estate industry chain is opened up, and the market activity naturally increases. It not only solves the sales problem in the market but also solves the affordable housing problem, achieving a “hierarchy” of real estate.

Moreover, the affordable housing generated from the repurchase of old houses is more competitive than directly building affordable housing. It enriches the category and selection of affordable housing, making it suitable for different affordable housing needs. Diversified housing sources can also weaken the label of “affordable housing”.

Some people may ask, what if no one participates in the replacement?

First of all, this plan targets the “house owners” who own “ordinary houses”, and the success rate is very high. Because in the past two years, most of the actual transactions have been based on replacement. Now, with the addition of an official replacement channel, it naturally carries more influence.

Therefore, if the market continues to be sluggish, the innovative “Upgrade with old” plan in Taicang will most likely be imitated by other cities, because in the past three years, most of the land reserves have been controlled by state-owned enterprises and city investment companies. Therefore, there are almost no obstacles or settlement issues in implementing this upgrade plan.

Of course, the “Upgrade with old” plan also has its drawbacks. If this plan can be implemented in the long term, it also means that the commercial housing market will gradually become more “commercialized”. The more the old houses in the original community are used for replacement, the more the community will gradually become “settled and guaranteed”. This will force the original homeowners to sell their houses through “replacement”, and they will be forced to join the “upgrade” operation.

From certain perspectives: “First-tier cities rely on inflating three to four-tier cities within the city circle. Three to four-tier cities can only preserve the transaction of new houses by offering second-hand houses.”

What if I rent a house? I can’t say for certain about the third and fourth-tier cities, but if this policy is implemented in first-tier cities, it is highly likely that the mass repurchased old houses will be packaged and given to third-party urban renewal companies.

After renovation, they will be rented to you.

So, “Upgrade with old” may not be the optimal solution, but it is indeed a good solution under the dual logic of “no speculation in real estate” and “no decrease in housing prices”.

Smart people are truly within the system.

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Cancellation and Adjustment of Property Policies

This type of problem feels like I’ve written about it many times before, and today’s policy gives me the same impression.

1/ All administrative or overly strict home purchasing restrictions will gradually be lifted in the future. This is because faced with the objective reality of a historic shift in housing demand, these measures, which were originally meant to prevent overheating, are unnecessary. Instead, the focus in the future will be on preventing excessive cooling.

2/ However, the cancellation of policies needs to take into account human factors, so they cannot be all cancelled at once. Instead, they will be gradually phased out based on market conditions. The characteristic of this approach is that if housing prices stabilize, there is no need for stimulus policies. If housing prices rebound, there is no need to relax further controls. In summary, the goal is to maintain transaction volume in the housing market and consequently regulate land auctions.

3/ The best-case scenario for these policies, including the two mentioned earlier, is a short-term rebound, followed by a return to the reasonable value of housing prices in the medium to long term. This trend is driven by objective factors, unless there is a sustained improvement in the population or another supply-demand imbalance in the real estate market. In that case, the trend is likely to be determined by rules rather than intentions.

4/ However, I estimate that there will be a group of people who want to swoop in and buy at the bottom, even though those who did so at the beginning of the year are already halfway up the mountain arguing.

5/ The introduction of these policies not only reflects the reversal of housing demand but also indicates that the previous policies did not achieve the desired goals. Therefore, ordinary people should consider these pieces of information when purchasing a house and avoid blindly following others.

6/ Unlike real estate, consumer data continues to show marginal improvement. As I mentioned before, if housing prices decline, there will be bright spots in consumption because everyone’s disposable income has increased. It appears that this theory still holds true. This also signifies that the economy is going through a transformation. Real estate is still important, but not as important as it was in the past two decades.

7/ Some people in the market believe that we will have another interest rate cut. I think this is unlikely because we are not currently facing a water shortage or a lack of low interest rates. What we lack is the confidence to borrow money and put it to use. I believe this will improve gradually after a few months of positive economic data and expectations of a interest rate cut in the United States.

8/ However, these policies are probably a response to the previous reforms in the new housing market. They relax price requirements for commercial properties, but in reality, most of the genuine demand will be met by affordable housing. Therefore, the key factor to consider is the progress of affordable housing.

Real estate crisis in China: Bubble burst and debt accumulation.

The houses in Shenzhen cannot be sold again, so they continue to relax conditions and continue to deceive people into buying houses.

The northern metropolitan area of Hong Kong is a technological living area designed to attract a population of 2.5 million people. It can attract both Shenzhen and Hong Kong residents. At the same time, it increases the land supply in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, and lowers housing prices in both cities. The same applies to future first-tier cities such as Xiong’an New Area and Shanghai Lingang New Area. The deepening development of the internet and mobile internet, and its equalizing effect on land, has led to the decline of central business districts (CBD) and long-term decrease in housing prices in core areas. Many central business districts in cities already lack vitality and have become even more lifeless during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has intensified this trend. The business model of shared cars and the new productivity of remote work have already broken down geographical barriers. Similarly, the future development of the internet, with the emergence of the metaverse, will further contribute to the long-term shrinkage of the real estate industry.

Youth is the most valuable thing in life, and each young person only has it once. Youth should be spent like this: looking back on the past, one should not regret buying houses or feel ashamed of being a mortgage slave. At the end of life, one should be able to say, “I have dedicated my entire youth and energy to the most magnificent cause in the world - the fight against the housing price bubble in China.”

The year-on-year growth rate of China’s actual GDP has been lower than the growth rate of government debt as a percentage of GDP. China’s future actual GDP growth in the next ten years will only be 3%. The probability of the Chinese government properly solving the real estate bubble, debt accumulation, and tax reform issues simultaneously is less than 5%.

Since Moody’s adjusted the outlook ratings of six Chinese state-owned real estate enterprises, including China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., China Resources Land Ltd., Yuexiu Property Co. Ltd., Greenland Group, Poly Developments and Holdings Group, and Shenzhen Huiyang Industrial Development Co. Ltd. from “stable” to “negative” in September, there is no longer any “stable” outlook rating for real estate developers in China. All ratings are negative.

All private real estate companies in China have already defaulted, including Vanke, Longfor, and Greenland. In the past four years from 2018 to 2021, they bought land at high prices. Vanke ranked first in land acquisitions for three years and second for one year. It is no surprise that Vanke has defaulted now, and it still has a large amount of US dollar bond principal and interest waiting for it in 2024 and 2025! If the houses cannot be sold, what will they use to repay? Will you buy a house to save Vanke?

There is a precedent for bankruptcy among state-owned holding companies: Guangdong International Trust & Investment Corporation, which is extensively involved in real estate. Vanke took over the land from Guangzhou R&F Properties, but who will take over Vanke’s land reserves? No one! The difference between the value of real estate companies' land reserves, costs, and market value is too large, and it essentially means that assets do not cover liabilities. The short-term solvency indicators and short-term liabilities of Vanke that they boast about are useless when it comes to insolvency. They don’t even work when it comes to selling houses! The objective reality and trend of China’s real estate industry determine the ultimate fate of real estate enterprises. Vanke will continue to default! Will you buy a house to save Vanke?

China’s real estate collapse will inevitably lead to deflation in debt and austerity measures, which will keep China in a deflationary state for a long time. Cash is king, and the US dollar is the king of cash. The US dollar will continue to hike interest rates aggressively, so the interest rate differential between China and the US will persist in the long term. There will be a 12th interest rate hike in December, with at least 25 basis points, pushing the benchmark interest rate to above 5.5% and maintaining a high interest rate level for years, continuously inflating the Chinese real estate and financial bubble. Any rebound in the RMB to USD exchange rate in the future will be a good opportunity for capital outflows to exchange RMB for US dollars to buy US bonds and stocks with joy.

The minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve were published, and participants agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5% in order to achieve maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate over the long term. Participants unanimously agreed to continue assessing new information and its impact on monetary policy, and would consider appropriate additional policy tightening. The participants are committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target, and by 2026, both overall and core PCE price inflation rates are expected to approach 2%. If future information indicates insufficient progress in achieving the committee’s inflation objective, further monetary policy tightening will be appropriate.

Effects of Downpayment on Real Estate Market

From the perspective of academic literature, reducing the down payment ratio is likely to improve the liquidity of the real estate market. As early as 1995, Jeremy Chaim Stein, a professor at Harvard University and former board member of the Federal Reserve, published a paper in the top economics journal (QJE), in which he used mathematical models to demonstrate the impact of down payments on both housing prices and transaction volumes. In the opening stages of his paper, he provided a vivid example to illustrate the disturbance caused by down payments in the real estate market.

Assumptions:

1. The initial value of the house is $100,000; the remaining mortgage is $85,000; there are no other assets.
2. The goal is to improve the school district environment by swapping houses; the down payment ratio for the swap is 10%.

Inference:

If the housing prices remain the same, the household can sell the old house, repay the mortgage, and still have over $15,000 in funding to cover the minimum down payment (10%) for the new house. Therefore, they can afford a luxury house worth $150,000. However, if housing prices fall by 10%, the household will only have enough funds to pay a down payment of $5,000, and will be able to afford a rundown house worth $50,000. Therefore, the homeowner has two options:

1. Instead of moving to a much smaller house, the homeowner may rationally choose to give up the swap.
2. Engage in “fishing” by forcibly listing the old house at a price higher than the market price, with a low probability of finding a sucker willing to purchase it at a higher price. The opportunity cost of “fishing” is very low.

It can be seen that when the housing market is doing well, it is ideal to quickly and decisively move to a new school district instead of engaging in “fishing”. Therefore, in phases of booming housing prices, the liquidity of the real estate market is also good, and transaction volumes are usually high. However, when real estate prices are sluggish, due to the presence of down payments as a financial friction in the system, whether it is homeowners choosing to give up the swap or engage in “fishing”, it will further reduce the transaction volumes of the entire real estate market.

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Ah, typing is so tiring.

Shenzhen Housing Market Challenges

The effect, in my personal opinion, is average. Because now if someone wants to buy a second house, they would generally sell their own house first before buying, unless they really can’t live there anymore.

So most people have to sell their house in order to buy a new one.

There is a considerable amount of inventory in Shenzhen.

In October, Shenzhen had 4,189 new residential units available for presale, compared to 9,470 units in September, which is a decrease of nearly 56% month-on-month. LeYouJia Research Center indicates that the current inventory of newly built houses in Shenzhen remains high, at nearly 5 million square meters, with a clearance period increasing to 18.5 months.

Luxury homes in Shenzhen are currently experiencing a decline as well. Many residential areas have definitely experienced a decrease in value of more than 10% compared to the beginning of the year. What do you think?

Is the birth rate in Shenzhen high?

The actual birth rate for registered residents in Shenzhen is not high.

Some people have said that in 2022, the total permanent population of Shenzhen will be 17.62 million, with a birth rate of 13.52%, which is actually quite high and consistently ranks among the top three in the country in the long term.

However, the current number of first-grade students in Shenzhen’s primary schools is only around 200,000, and the population in Shenzhen is mostly young.

In the past few years, the number of births has been visibly higher.

So is the birth rate in Shenzhen high or low?

Most of the permanent population in Shenzhen is not prepared to stay in the city for the long term. When I go to Shenzhen to help clients negotiate house purchases, I often see educated families in their thirties buying houses without children.

I have also seen cases where men in their forties and women in their twenties sell houses and buy new ones.

The down payment for buying a house in Shenzhen is always around 1 million RMB, and the houses are usually old and small.

Shenzhen is large, but living there is not easy.

In terms of per capita wealth, both Jack Ma and I have billions of dollars.

In the W

Impacts and implications of the action.

How should we view this move? What impact will it have?

Why are you asking this question?

What do you want to achieve by asking this question? Who instructed you to ask it? Who are you working for? What is your agenda? Who is your leader?

Be straightforward and honest, explain everything in detail. Don’t act like you don’t know anything. Bring your household registration and ID card and come with us, don’t say that we are falsely accusing you.

If we can catch you, it’s all based on evidence and reason.

I know you’re anxious, but don’t be in a hurry. They can reduce it from 70% to 40% today, and it will be reduced from 40% to 10% tomorrow. If 10% is still not enough, then there won’t be any down payment.

After all, that pile of steel and cement isn’t worth that price, who’s in a hurry to sell it? Who knows!

The one who’s in a hurry knows!

The one who’s in a hurry knows!

Anyway, those who want to buy a house are not in a hurry, worst case scenario, we don’t get married, we don’t have children.

That pile of broken steel and cement of yours costs millions, are you trying to deceive us? There aren’t that many fools anymore!

Since the prices aren’t going up, why hurry?

Besides, buying a house also means worrying about whether it will be poorly constructed. Even if you spend your money, you won’t be able to live in it for decades, and you’ll have to pay the loan on time every month. Is this how people live?

This unfinished building, whoever wants to buy, can buy!

They say the customer is always right, well, not only did you spend money to buy a house, but you also get beaten up! Is this how you treat a god?

We don’t want to spend money to get beaten up.

Whoever wants to get beaten, can get beaten, but normal people won’t go.

So,

We know you’re anxious, but please don’t be in a hurry.

We know you’re unreasonable, but we won’t be reasonable either.

I know you want to sell, but we won’t buy.

I know what you want to do, but we won’t cooperate!

I know you want to get rid of it, but we won’t take over!