Russian city of Belgorod attacked by Ukrainian forces, resulting in at least 20 deaths and 111 injuries. What key information should be noted?

Analysis of Air Defense in Russia-Ukraine Conflict

During the Russian air raids on Ukraine, some experts claimed that NATO’s standard air defense systems did not intercept all incoming threats, deeming NATO air defense as ineffective.

Now, as Ukrainian forces conduct air raids on Russia primarily using drones instead of ballistic or cruise missiles, questions arise about the efficacy of the Soviet-era air defense systems.

Videos of attacks on the center of Belgorod illustrate the situation.

Experts state that Ukrainian military reports claim interceptions of drones and cruise missiles only, with no ballistic missiles intercepted:

However, Russian military sources are more straightforward, revealing that the Ukrainian attack arsenal consisted solely of drones:

So, what does this imply?

Where are the highly acclaimed S-300/400/500 systems, and the lauded Thor and Pantsir defenses? Why can’t they even intercept drones?

Experts boldly analyze that while cruise missiles and drones are being intercepted, ballistic missiles are not, implying that the focus should be on developing ballistic and hypersonic weapons as cruise missiles like JASSM and JDAM are deemed interceptable and not cost-effective.

What then, is the current situation with Russian defenses? Why can’t they block a saturated attack solely with drones?

After nearly 2 years of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the only consistently successful strategy appears to be saturation attacks, yet discussions on military tactics continue without full understanding.

Underestimating JASSM and JDAM? Reality shows that with sufficient single salvo size and sustained attacks, even drones can break through, making JASSM and JDAM somewhat redundant.

As for ballistic and hypersonic weapons? Let’s discuss breakthrough capabilities when these expensive assets reach the quantity levels of more conventional munitions like the JDAM.

After the bombardment on the 29th led to widespread chaos, Ukraine retaliated, prompting Russia to turn to the United Nations for help.

Belgorod Attack: A Grim Escalation

Little Fox brings an international perspective for the knowledgeable friends.

According to reports from Russian news agency, Reuters, Associated Press, and CNN, on December 30th, the city of Belgorod in Russia, bordering Ukraine, was subjected to massive shelling by Ukrainian forces. The attack resulted in at least 20 deaths, including two children, and 111 injuries. Moscow has warned of retaliation for this attack.

The Russian news agency quoted the Emergency Situations Ministry saying that the city center of Belgorod suffered a “massive” attack. The city is the administrative center of the Belgorod region, located on the Russia-Ukraine border. Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov stated that this was one of the deadliest attacks on Russian territory since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine 22 months ago.

On December 30th, Belgorod Oblast in Russia was subjected to “massive” shelling by Ukrainian forces.

The Kremlin announced that President Putin had been informed of the incident and ordered medical teams to provide urgent assistance. The Ministry of Defence warned in a statement that such crimes would not go “unpunished”, emphasizing that Kyiv is trying to divert attention from its failures at the front and incite similar actions.

The United Nations Security Council will convene a meeting at Russia’s request to discuss the attack on Belgorod.

The shelling caused damage to about 40 civilian facilities in the city, sparking 10 fires, all of which have now been extinguished. Russian authorities reported that air raid alarms sounded in various parts of Belgorod at the time of the attack, and Governor Gladkov urged all residents to move to shelters.

Reuters reported that Belgorod Oblast has been frequently targeted by drone and missile strikes this year, but the scale of the new attacks far exceeds previous ones, causing significant casualties.

Previously, Russia had launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since the full-scale invasion on the nights of the 28th and 29th, resulting in at least 40 deaths and over 150 injuries, with at least 16 fatalities in the capital Kyiv alone, prompting the mayor to declare New Year’s Day a national day of mourning.

Belgorod, located about 30 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, has been repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian forces during the Russo-Ukrainian war. This is one of the most devastating attacks on Russian territory since Moscow’s troops entered Ukraine in February of last year.

So far, Ukraine has not responded to the incident.

Many people have a fantasy of being a giant baby: they imagine themselves as the bringers of justice when they harm others, but view retaliation against them as completely unjust. This style of humor and storytelling in history education leads to a distorted and immature way of thinking. If Israel were to launch 130 missiles to strike Palestine, some people would go crazy criticizing Israel as if they were the embodiment of justice, but when Ukraine is bombed, they applaud the mighty empire, and then blame Ukraine when it retaliates. Of course, if Russia were to bomb China with the same intensity, there would probably be reflections on justifying it for the sake of the motherland or distancing themselves from it, much like when the New Star ship was sunk by Evil Country with 500 shells or when Zhao Rui was killed as expendable.

Rabbit Friends Have Clearly Gained the Upper Hand

Regardless of what the Goose Friends and Ukraine Friends may think, Rabbit Friends have undeniably gained the upper hand.

Take a look at this map and consider the distance from Belgorod to the Russia-Ukraine border, which is only about 30 kilometers.

This means that Ukraine doesn’t even need to bring out any Storm Shadows; they can simply grab a howitzer, load it with extended-range projectiles, and reach Belgorod.

This attack clearly demonstrates that Ukraine has no intention of compromising and has a strong determination to reclaim its territory.

For Russia to prevent Ukraine’s attacks, it would have to advance north to capture Kharkiv, Sumy, and even Poltava.

Based on the current military situation between Russia and Ukraine, capturing these places would take at least another five years.

So, there’s no need to worry about Russia and Ukraine reaching a compromise; this conflict can continue.

Some Russian fans often said last year, “Anyway, the war didn’t reach Russian territory, it’s Ukraine that gets bombed every day.” So, this year, let the Russians also taste the feeling of being attacked! Reciprocal counterattacks, no debts owed to each other.

In a naive illusion, the NAZIs entered the war - they could bomb others, while others could not bomb them. - Arthur Travers Harris. It was only when Dulitt’s bomber fleet now hovered over the skies of Tokyo, and the thunderous cannons enveloped Konigsberg, that the fanatical supporters of the imperial war began to ponder whether they themselves were the true sacrificial victims of this carnal frenzy…

A Form of Tit-for-Tat

Russia had previously carried out a large-scale missile strike on Ukrainian territory, resulting in the deaths of more than 30 Ukrainian civilians and over 100 injuries. This prompted Ukraine to retaliate by striking inside Russia.

The casualties inflicted on Russia in this attack were relatively low, with the number of casualties even slightly less than the civilian casualties caused by Russian forces in Ukraine a few days earlier. It is evident that the Ukrainian military exercised some restraint, resulting in a retaliatory strike that caused less than 200 Russian casualties.

If Russia had only engaged in frontline combat with the Ukrainian military, it is clear that Ukraine would not have targeted Russian territory. Therefore, this attack was entirely provoked by Russia, with full responsibility lying on the Russian side. If Russia had not initiated attacks on Ukrainian cities in the rear, causing civilian casualties, would the Ukrainian military have struck inside Russian territory? Clearly not.

Hence, if Russia wants to avoid repercussions within its own borders, it would be wise to refrain from attempting long-range missile attacks on Ukrainian rear cities. Ukraine will undoubtedly respond in kind. As Ukraine acquires more long-range weaponry, its ability to launch remote attacks will continue to strengthen.

Therefore, it is advisable for Russia to limit its military actions to the frontline of the Russia-Ukraine battlefield and refrain from targeting civilian targets in the Ukrainian rear. Otherwise, the repercussions within Russia will only become more devastating, and deliberately provoking Ukraine appears to be an unwise choice.

The effect of bombing Tokyo and Berlin back in the day was similar. The ordinary Nazi citizens thought that by supporting their aggressive government, they could sleep peacefully.

When they themselves were bombed daily and didn’t know if there would be a tomorrow, they had to consider whether the Putin government should have a tomorrow as well.

Of course, observers still continue to cite certain Russian media for deception.

News from Zhao Rui still doesn’t catch the eye of the observers.

Evolving Dynamics in the Russia-Ukraine War

The situation in the Russia-Ukraine war has taken a different turn, extending beyond the battlefield.

The Russian military has conducted large-scale airstrikes in Ukraine, prompting Ukrainian retaliation targeting the Russian border city of Belgorod.

Ukrainian forces have used multiple rocket launchers, such as the “Red Poplar” with prohibited cluster munitions and the Czech-made “Vampire,” launching them from multiple rocket systems in Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine. These rockets struck a square in the center of Belgorod, hitting a shopping center and several residential buildings.

Russia is likely to retaliate once again, leading to a vicious cycle of violence.

However, there is one thing to note: take a look at the location map of the attacks on Belgorod – they mostly target densely populated city centers.

In other words, Ukrainian attacks are primarily focused on non-military targets.

Will the Russian military launch retaliatory strikes on Ukraine once again?

The Russian armed forces will respond.

On December 30th, after the Ukrainian military targeted the civilian area of Belgorod with cluster bombs, Russian forces began another round of large-scale airstrikes on various Ukrainian cities just hours later. The explosions echoed through Kharkiv, and multiple missiles struck Odessa’s Shkodyne Airport.

But Russia will not respond in the same, or even more aggressive, manner.

Currently, Russian forces are still limited to targeting military facilities and related objectives.

The reason is simple: apart from drawing international attention, Ukraine’s aim in attacking non-military Russian targets is to provoke Russia into responding in a similar manner.

If Russia were to fall into this trap, it would lead to several outcomes:

1. If innocent Ukrainian civilians are harmed, Russia’s moral high ground would be compromised, as evident in Israel’s current situation.

2. Ukraine would capitalize on civilian sacrifices to garner sympathy and increase Western assistance.

3. It wouldn’t aid the current battlefield situation but instead divert attention from the unfavorable situation on the Ukrainian frontlines, focusing on the endless and unrestrained “mutual harm” between the two sides.

Hence, Russia is unlikely to fall for this trap.

What Russia’s armed forces can do is:

Firstly, prevent and intercept further Ukrainian sneak attacks, assisting innocent Russian civilians affected by the attacks.

Secondly, turn sorrow into strength by engaging Ukrainian forces on the main front.

Lastly, expose Ukraine’s sinister intentions.

Escalating Developments in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

According to Russian news agency TASS, Ukraine has employed the “Red Poplar” multiple rocket launcher with cluster munitions and Czech-made “Vampire” multiple rocket launcher in their attacks. Russian air defense systems intercepted the rockets from the “Red Poplar” and most of the “Vampire” rockets. The intercepted “Red Poplar” rocket and its cluster components hit the city of Belgorod.

Belgorod, located approximately 30 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, has been repeatedly targeted by Ukrainian forces. This attack marks one of the deadliest on Russian territory since Moscow’s involvement in Ukraine in February last year.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova has alleged that the UK is the mastermind behind this terrorist attack, collaborating with the United States to incite Kiev to undertake such actions, as the Ukrainian armed forces' counteroffensive has failed.

Despite consecutive rejections of military aid to Ukraine by the United States and the European Union, Russia remains confident, and Ukraine shows no signs of backing down.

On the 26th, Ukraine carried out an attack on the Russian landing ship “Novocherkassk” docked in Feodosiya using NATO-supplied “Taurus” air-launched cruise missiles, destroying the vessel. This is the second large landing ship lost after the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship, the ‘Moskva’. There are only four of these large landing ships in the Russian Black Sea Fleet, often used for transporting “Kamikaze-136” suicide drones.

Following this blow to the Black Sea Fleet, not only is the number of large warships scarce, but it also affects Russia’s ability to launch long-range attacks from the sea.

On the 28th and 29th, Russia conducted its largest-scale airstrikes on Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war, resulting in at least 40 deaths and more than 150 injuries in Ukraine. In the capital, Kiev, at least 16 people lost their lives, and the mayor declared New Year’s Day a national day of mourning.

Ukraine retaliated swiftly on the 30th, and in the future, both Russia and Ukraine may engage in more attacks targeting cities and civilians.

In times of war, this cycle of retaliation seems endless, with only the civilians in the rear bearing the brunt.

Western countries take pride in providing rockets and missiles to Ukraine, enabling them to launch attacks on Russia using Western technology and guidance. They themselves are not likely to face retaliation, which is the most frustrating aspect for Russia.

What Russia did not anticipate is Finland’s firm alignment with the United States, joining NATO. NATO forces can now legitimately enter Finland, coming closer to Russia’s borders. The straight-line distance from Finland to Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg, is only 180 kilometers.

The Turkish parliament has already approved Sweden’s accession to NATO, turning the Baltic Sea into an internal sea of NATO, posing challenges to the entry and exit of Russian warships.

In times of war, anything can happen. Russia finds itself increasingly on the defensive, with only one way to break free - cooperating with China to take down the United States completely.

Impulsive Snacking While Reading Headlines

Whenever I come across such headlines, I can’t help but immediately grab a snack from outside.

Wasn’t it around this time last year that attacks on Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure began?

Ukraine took down 5 Russian planes and a ship – Russia responded with missile launches, targeting Kharkiv and Kyiv. Ukraine, in turn, launched drone strikes on Russia’s Belgorod. That’s the rough sequence of events.

Ukrainians claim it happened on the 31st, so it seems Russia wasn’t quite ready; their air defenses weren’t prepared.

(Links and videos have been omitted from the translation.)

At least two trips are needed for it to be effective. What’s the use of firing a few cannonballs?

Ukraine Responds to Russian Attacks, Tensions Escalate

Yesterday, Russia sent a “gift” to Ukraine for the New Year, and today Ukraine responded in kind.

Yesterday’s Russian attacks on residential areas, hospitals, shopping centers, and metro stations in Ukraine were all places closely tied to civilians. These attacks resulted in at least 39 deaths and 159 injuries.

Today, Ukraine retaliated by targeting civilian areas in Russia. Ukrainian forces went to great lengths, using the Vampire MLRS rocket artillery system and deploying cluster bombs on civilian targets in the city center of Belgorod.

In response to Ukraine’s attack, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated: “This crime will not go unpunished. The Kyiv regime is trying to divert attention from its failures on the front lines and provoke us to take similar actions.”

Russia accuses Ukraine of hypocrisy, allowing itself to attack Ukraine but deeming Ukraine unjust for retaliating.

As for Russian retaliation, it is unlikely to involve indiscriminate bombings, as it seeks to maintain global public opinion. Pro-Russian sentiments in Ukraine and those who are neutral will shift towards opposition, potentially leading to domestic instability. Mass attacks primarily harm civilians, and anti-Russian sentiments in Ukraine have been growing.

Therefore, Russia will continue its attacks on Ukraine, but likely with restraint.

Yesterday, Russian missiles hit Ukraine, and today Ukrainian artillery struck Russia, highlighting the ongoing nature of the conflict. Both sides have suffered civilian casualties, making it clear that war is on their doorstep.

In the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, neither side seems willing to back down unless one is completely defeated, a scenario that the West hopes to avoid, as it does not want to witness Slavic people tearing each other apart.

I’ve always been unable to understand why Russia refrains from attacking Kharkiv. Is it due to insufficient military strength?

Ukraine is also puzzling. Since the opponent isn’t launching an offensive, they are not retaliating from here towards Russia’s mainland.

Both sides have remained in this state of inaction for over a year.

There’s nothing noteworthy. Russia’s homeland has already been bombed a long time ago. Even if you don’t remember the following question, you should at least remember that the Kremlin was hit by two suicide drones.

How do you view the drone night attack on Moscow on July 30th?

You might say that the last time it was Moscow, and this time it’s Belgorod City. But the Russian Free Army was just causing trouble in the Belgorod region a few months ago.

Why is the Russian Free Army invading Russian territory?

At first, I didn’t read the title clearly and thought this question was too trivial. Ukrainian cities have been bombed for nearly two years, and hundreds of thousands of people have died in the war. Are you asking me to focus on this death and injury?

It wasn’t until I read the answers that I realized it’s a Russian city.

I strongly condemn the Ukrainians for harming Russian invaders!

Is that it? I thought Moscow had been nuked.

The Situation in Ukraine: Escalating Conflict and Potential Targets

NATO has promised that its weapons will not attack Russia’s mainland, but Ukrainian artillery seems to be an exception to this commitment.

After the defeat in Kharkiv last year, Russian territory was already within the range of Ukrainian artillery fire.

During this time, the Ukrainian military has been attempting negotiations with Russia, which has clearly irked President Biden.

Zelensky promptly indicated his intention to expand the conflict into Russian territory.

So, unless Russia mobilizes its forces or launches a full-scale attack to drive Ukraine out of the Kharkiv region, the Russian city of Belgorod is the next potential target after Donetsk.

The people of Donetsk have endured artillery attacks for nine years, and Putin’s war aims to restore the constitutional borders of Donetsk and remove Ukrainian forces from the Avdiivka area to spare the Donetsk capital from further bombardment.

Now, Belgorod is another addition to the list.

In summary, in 2024, the Democratic Party is unlikely to end the war until the end of the U.S. elections, making it unlikely that the shelling of Belgorod will cease anytime soon.

Only through engagement can China achieve more benefits. Support efforts to involve the Americans.