It's 2023, how many more years do you think gasoline cars will be phased out?

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Oil is currently seen as a strategic material, yet it is, in fact, a type of energy with very low costs, even cheaper than water in oil-producing countries!

The gasoline we currently fill up at gas stations is about 55% taxes and fees. If more than half of the household vehicles switch to batteries, do you think the cost of charging will remain as it is now?

Don’t be naive. It’s like a disabled person who needs the help of passers-by to walk, yet claims they can walk faster than those assisting them. Isn’t this the current state of electric vehicles!

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Fuel vehicles will not be phased out, but the era of having only the option of fuel vehicles has passed.

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Here’s an overlooked piece of data

I believe it will take at least 20 years or more.

Currently, there are 300 million fuel vehicles, with a lifespan of at least a dozen more years, while the penetration rate of new electric vehicles has already reached 44%, but the total number in use is still relatively low.

I often see many owners of fuel vehicles criticizing the tax exemptions for green license plates, which is simply foolish.

The reason fuel vehicles are so cheap now is because manufacturers offer tax incentives. Otherwise, why do you think the Lavida sells for 70,000 yuan while the Camry sells for 130,000 yuan? It’s all because of the competition from the 80,000 yuan Qin Plus with a green license plate.

In fact, these are not the main points. There are three main reasons why electric cars can truly replace fuel vehicles:

1. At the national level, it promotes energy security and reduces dependence on petroleum.

2. At the societal level, electric cars are environmentally friendly, with emissions being only half of that of fuel vehicles.

3. At the individual level, electricity is really cheap, significantly saving money per 100 kilometers.

The tax reduction policy for green license plate purchases has become increasingly stringent and will likely be discontinued around 2027. However, these three driving forces mentioned above will always exist, leading to a continuous increase in the number of electric vehicles.

In conclusion, I believe that the majority of commuter vehicles will eventually become electric cars, while fuel vehicles will become niche vehicles and utility vehicles in the future.

This morning, when I got up for work, the temperature was -14 degrees Celsius. I checked the battery indicator, and it still showed more than 300 kilometers of range. I distinctly remember that it also showed more than 300 kilometers of range before I parked last night. How come it hasn’t dropped at all after a night in the cold? Oh, I remember now! I’m using 95-octane gasoline, so I confidently turned up the heater to the maximum and set off to work, ready to earn back that fuel cost! (^_-)

First, let’s get rid of the policy that favors electric vehicles and lower fuel prices. Currently, with gasoline prices soaring, a significant portion of it comes from traditional vehicle owners subsidizing electric cars. Constantly advocating for the elimination of gasoline-powered cars now is akin to an elementary school student in combat gear taking down a muscular man with a single shot and then showing off to the world how superior they are. What needs to be done now is to disarm the elementary school student and have them compete one-on-one with the muscular man barehanded. However, the elementary school student’s skills are certainly no match, so let them grow up and become competitive on an equal footing with the muscular man.

The coverage of electric vehicles is shifting from major cities to second-tier, third-tier, fourth-tier, fifth-tier, sixth-tier, and seventh-tier cities, ultimately expanding to rural areas. This expansion follows the deployment of charging infrastructure.

Currently, in the first half of 2023, the market share of new energy vehicles in Shanghai is 47%, with pure electric vehicles accounting for 43% of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that traditional gasoline vehicles will be marginalized in Shanghai in the next 3-5 years, with pure electric vehicles representing half of the total sales.

Source: Insights into Automotive Consumer Preferences in Shanghai in the First Half of 2023 - Gaisei Automotive

Nationally, as of January to November 2023, electric vehicles already account for 31% of total vehicle sales, and the exit of gasoline-powered vehicles from the market is only a matter of time. It is estimated that in 6-8 years, the sales of traditional gasoline vehicles will decrease to 30%.

Source: Over 20 Million: New Energy Vehicles Pave the Way for the Future of the Automotive Industry - Xinhua News

Then, in the next 10 years, the share of gasoline vehicles will decrease to 20%, and in 15 years, gasoline vehicles will be completely marginalized. The slower progress in the latter stages may be due to the potentially high cost of deploying charging infrastructure in rural areas.

In 2023, I think it’s better to discuss when solid-state batteries can enter mass production. How many more years will lithium-ion batteries be replaced by solid-state batteries~

The question of when gasoline cars will be phased out cannot be definitively answered because there is currently no clear possibility of gasoline cars being phased out. However, all electric vehicles, including hybrid plug-in models, are expected to be phased out within the next 3-5 years in the current market.

The privilege of green license plates, sooner or later, will be dismantled by these ignorant electric vehicle enthusiasts…

What’s the point of it all…

I only believe in one thing: if the day comes when gasoline cars are phased out, pure electric vehicles will inevitably be phased out in sync.

It will definitely be a new source of energy and propulsion, or even a new product design, completely altering the way we travel.

Respecting the laws of nature is quite simple, but most people cannot do it; they are simply unwilling to admit it.

If pure electric vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) were truly in line with the natural order and beneficial, why have we been subsidizing automakers for 15 years, offering various policies (license plate restrictions, tax exemptions), and spending countless amounts of money, yet the penetration rate remains below 40%?

If it were truly a great product, shouldn’t it be in high demand without the need for subsidies? Why do we still need to spend money to incentivize people to buy it?

Pure gasoline can only solve the problems of pure gasoline, and pure electric can only solve the problems of pure electric. It’s not a matter of life or death between the two.

For example, the extreme acceleration that used to be exclusive to million-dollar gasoline cars can now be enjoyed by electric vehicles that cost only a few hundred thousand.

However, pure gasoline vehicles offer virtually unlimited range without significant time costs, a feat that pure electric vehicles still cannot achieve. The mechanical structures of pure gasoline vehicles, which have been problem-free for decades, are still unmatched by the electrical systems of pure electric vehicles.

Let’s first remove all the subsidies for new energy before discussing further.

You’ve taken a knife and killed Tyson, and now you’re asking me who’s stronger between you and Tyson.

How do you expect me to answer that?

I drive a gasoline car, and the displayed range shows 70 kilometers. Regardless of the weather, I dare to drive up to 70 kilometers away to refuel.

If a round trip doesn’t exceed 30 kilometers, I’m willing to make the round trip and then find the nearest gas station.

Even when the displayed range shows only 10 kilometers, if there’s an urgent matter that requires me to drive, I would immediately agree and then head to the nearest gas station to refuel, ensuring that no time is wasted.

20 years.

The previous new energy source,

Should be natural gas used for combustion in the engine…

For most people, buying a car is still a matter of budget consideration, taking into account operating costs and resale value.

The day when electric vehicles or hydrogen-powered cars can offer overwhelming advantages in terms of vehicle price, operating costs, and other factors compared to gasoline cars, might truly mark the end of the era for gasoline cars.

After all, when there are affordable options, there’s no need to choose expensive ones, right?

If you traveled back 100 years, people at that time would tell you that electric cars were about to be replaced by gasoline cars, entering the era of gasoline cars.

Electric cars were invented 5 years before gasoline cars and were very popular in the early 20th century, but they were later replaced by gasoline cars. Now, electric cars are making a comeback, much like the revival of dinosaurs.

Electric cars accelerate like road killers, brake like a Wuling Hongguang, have the safety of an oil tanker, provide elderly joy on highways, make passengers seasick like pirates, and are essentially the most outdated mode of transportation. I wouldn’t even take one if it were given to me for free.

So, gasoline cars are like nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, while electric cars are like coal-burning warships. The worst gasoline car is still better than the best electric car.

Therefore, it’s gasoline cars that are phasing out electric cars, and electric cars can only survive with the pressure of policies and subsidies.

Gasoline cars won’t be phased out, but their market share will definitely decrease.

Just look at the new cars being released now; electric cars or plug-in hybrids are truly the next generation. Take the BYD Han, for example. When it first came out, the chassis was in a terrible state, but later, with the introduction of FSD (Full Self-Driving), it became entirely different. Then came the Han EV, which improved upon it. This is all on the much-criticized chassis of new energy vehicles. I won’t even mention things like the three-electric system, intelligent driving, and comfort features. Electric car owners have gotten used to being disappointed.

Gasoline cars? Oh, this time they changed the front grille.

Haha.

In this Gansu earthquake, were the vehicles used for disaster relief gasoline or electric ones?

Gasoline cars will never be phased out.

The energy density of gasoline is something that batteries can never match. This means that in situations requiring extreme range, sensitivity to weight, or lack of electrical infrastructure, only gasoline vehicles can truly perform.