Israeli Cabinet Votes to Approve Temporary Ceasefire Agreement with Hamas What Does This Mean? How Will the Situation between Israel and Palestine Develop?

The Prelude to the Intensified Conflict

For the millions of elderly, young, and vulnerable in Gaza, this is certainly good news. In just over a month of this inhumane war, the number of recorded civilian casualties has already exceeded 12,000, with the vast majority being women and children. These atrocities are simply too numerous to quantify. However, I must make it clear that the fundamental reason this five-day ceasefire was achieved is due to Hamas' tenacious resistance.

Some people have said that Israel’s ceasefire is to ease international pressure. Sorry, but after reading this viewpoint, I couldn’t help but laugh (bitterly). Come on, my friend, Israel has already declared that it is willing to go against the whole world to continue the war until the end. They have thrown hundreds of tons of bombs into the densely populated Gaza in front of the eyes of 8 billion people worldwide. At least several hundred or even thousands of civilian bodies are strewn across the land. Videos of fathers crying holding their daughters'

Haamas gains advantage through ceasefire

It seems that Israel has really been hurt. Calling for a ceasefire actually has a great impact on the morale and will give Hamas an opportunity to replenish. The benefits of a ceasefire are far greater for the defensive side than for the offensive side, as the defensive side has more opportunities to reinforce their defenses.

For Israel, the “absolutely superior side,” to give up on continuing the fight, the situation must have developed far below expectations. Does anyone really think that in Israel’s eyes, 50 hostages are worth a 4-day ceasefire? After this 4-day break for Hamas to regroup, the number of lives lost for Israel will far exceed 50. So, they just can’t continue the fight for now and are just finding an excuse for a ceasefire and regrouping.

It can only be said that Hamas has played the hostage card very well. Not only did they shift public opinion pressure onto Israel, but they also gained precious ceasefire time to reorganize their forces. 200+ hostages can probably buy them a ceasefire of 2-3 weeks, greatly increasing Hamas’s resistance duration.

For Hamas, the longer the delay, the more advantageous it is because Hezbollah is still fighting in the north. That tough battle won’t stop. The longer Hamas delays, the cleaner the towers will be demolished in the north. What Hamas is most worried about is that the Hezbollah towers won’t be completely demolished and they will run out of ammunition first. Now they can directly exchange hostages for a ceasefire, which is a huge boon for Hamas.

For Israel, it’s uncomfortable. The pro-Israel forces on the internet have already started to criticize, believing that the Israeli government has compromised with “terrorists.” Looking back, the boasting by the IDF in the past, it is predictable that Benjamin Netanyahu will certainly step down, and the one who will come to power will be an even more extreme prime minister, who will bind Israel to a war chariot and accelerate its plunge into the abyss.

Israel’s Ground Forces Struggle in Battle, Hamas Gains Advantage.

They all let out a sigh of relief;

Humanitarian aid and supplies can enter Gaza, every life saved counts;

Israel is a bit complicated;

A ceasefire means giving the Hamas militants in Gaza a rare chance to catch their breath, which is not conducive to the next round of Israeli military operations; If Israel does not agree, it is equivalent to giving up the detained hostages, and the families of the kidnapped hostages have long been waiting anxiously, constantly putting pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu.

In fact, Israel itself needs a ceasefire to catch its breath.

First, let’s look at a few points:

1. In the past few days, the Houthi militants fired several long-range missiles at southern Israel. The Israeli military intercepted some of them with the “Arrow” missile defense system, but some of the Houthi missiles still landed in the south of Israel.

The reason why the Israeli Defense Forces did not use the famous “Iron Dome” defense system is because they have ran out of missiles and urgently need to replenish them.

2. Yesterday, about 1,000 ships carrying 4,500 people from 40 countries gathered in Turkey, preparing to go to Israel. These ships and people are not going to fight, but to break through Israel’s blockade to provide humanitarian assistance to Gaza refugees;

Another purpose is to disrupt the Israeli port of Ashdod and interrupt the supply of Israeli goods; The goods referred to here are the large amount of military equipment shipped from the United States to Israel through many port ships in Ashdod.

3. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have started to hijack and detain Israeli ships passing through the Red Sea;

For example, yesterday, Houthi militants hijacked the Israeli “Galaxy Leader” roll-on/roll-off ship and deployed Mi-17 helicopters and airborne special forces, just like in a blockbuster movie.

The Red Sea is a vital route for Israel’s maritime transportation to the Asia-Pacific region. After being cut off by the Houthi militants, cargo ships cannot pass through.

In other words, Israel not only lacks weapons and ammunition but also faces the embarrassing situation of not being able to transport some of the arms.

Second, the aura of the Middle East’s little bully has been shattered; the ground combat capability of the Israeli Defense Forces is simply pathetic!

On November 21st, the Houthi rebels affiliated with Hamas released footage of their attacks on the Israeli Defense Forces, which was as fiery and exciting as a blockbuster movie.

A large number of Israeli special forces boarded “land aircraft” and infiltrated into buildings; but the Kassam Brigade had planted bombs in advance, and then the entire building was directly blown up.

One Israeli special forces soldier, without any tactical action, was blown up in a routine manner.

By comparing the Israeli Defense Forces with Hamas on the battlefield, their tactics and mental

Israel agrees to limited ceasefire for hostage release.

The Israeli cabinet finally agreed to a temporary ceasefire through a vote, in exchange for the release of hostages. This indicates that Israel has made limited concessions under pressure from the international community and the United States.

Earlier, Israel had insisted on a tactical, localized temporary ceasefire, allowing aid to be delivered only to the southern part of Gaza and not to the northern region. Hamas, on the other hand, demanded a comprehensive ceasefire that included all areas and requested aid to be delivered to all parts of Gaza, including the north. The two sides remained deadlocked and could not reach a ceasefire agreement.

Now, Israel has agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, but with temporary conditions. It is estimated that aid will still not be allowed to be delivered to the northern part of Gaza. Hamas, facing suppression from the Israeli military, is in urgent need of rest and strategic preparations. Although their expectations have not been fully met, they have no choice but to accept this compromise. After all, only some hostages have been released, not all of them. As long as hostages are in their hands, Hamas still has leverage to negotiate with Israel.

However, regardless of the circumstances, both sides have made concessions and have ultimately been able to rescue some hostages and deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. This is a significant progress and a relief for some Palestinian refugees. We hope that this trend can continue and that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can come to a comprehensive end as soon as possible.

Israel’s Purchase of Pry Axes from China Sparks Speculation

Let’s take a look at an interesting piece of information.

On November 8th, the Israeli Ministry of Economy and Industry released information about the procurement of pry axes in China (the article has since been deleted).

The same procurement information has also been released on other platforms (which have all been deleted).

According to investigations, pry axes are portable and versatile tools. They can not only open gaps, twist door locks and latches, and be used with various parts, but they can also cut metal sheets and penetrate thin walls. They are commonly used by fire departments, rescue teams, and police forces around the world.

In addition, pry axes are commonly used tools in urban warfare, such as breaking doors and creating openings. They have also been used in wars before.

For example, the famous American “5.11 Tactical Axe” is one of the handheld axes used by the U.S. military. From official to unofficial use, small axe tools have played a role in every war fought by the United States.

Currently, the Israeli Air Force has consumed over 2500 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) smart bomb kits in the airspace over Gaza, and they are running out. However, Hamas, relying on the underground facilities built earlier, has achieved its strategic goal of disrupting the Arab countries' process of reconciliation with Israel with a small number of people and extremely outdated equipment.

In order to achieve further military gains, Israel must launch an offensive against Hamas’s complex underground fortresses, and this is where pry axes will come into play.

Based on the current public opinion within Israel, the temporary ceasefire is more likely an opportunity for Israel to reorganize its military and conduct logistical supplies. It is highly probable that Israel will launch a more fierce and intense attack on Gaza City a few days later. At that time, the Israeli army may not even worry about “accidentally” injuring hostages.

But it’s strange that pry axes are not something rare, so why would Israel go to China to procure them when they can easily obtain them closer? They even specially translated it as “prying axis”.

Considering the rumors that have appeared on social media platforms last month, such as “Israel has ordered a large quantity of Chinese tactical equipment” and “Chinese-made bulletproof vests have appeared on the Israeli-Palestinian battlefield”, there may be someone behind the scenes pushing this matter to escalate.

At this sensitive juncture, we should pay special attention to some media outlets with ulterior motives taking advantage of the situation to release false reports like “China providing weapons to Israel”, stirring up China’s relations with Arab countries, and putting our country in a diplomatic passive position.

On the other hand, domestic companies should also be cautious when accepting orders. After all, not all money can be made.

Israeli Military and Strategic Failure

In military terms, it means only one thing: IDF indeed lacks the capability to retake Gaza. In strategic terms, it means another thing: Israel’s cumulative theory of deterrence since the establishment of the nation has completely failed.

For the Israeli people, it means that IDF indeed lacks the ability to truly protect everyone now. In the future, they will have to coexist with rockets that come from who knows where.

Possible Title Translation: “Prospects for Tactical Ceasefire in Israel-Palestine Conflict”

Note: The translation is a summary and may not encompass all aspects of the text. Translation:

As early as today, Hamas, Nazi Judea, and the United States had intensively leaked that an agreement was to be reached, so this news is not surprising. The main contents of the agreement actually boil down to two points: hostage exchange and a five-day ceasefire.

Hamas will release fifty hostages, and Nazi Judea will release even more, so the latter has made a concession in this regard. Does this mean that Hamas has won? Of course not, otherwise the cabinet of Nazi Judea would not have agreed to a ceasefire so easily.

Foreign media reports that “Hamas leader claims ‘close to reaching’ ceasefire agreement with Israel.” What information is worth noting? Is there a high possibility of a complete ceasefire agreement?

If my assumption is correct, it should have encountered some logistical problems of its own, after all, the intensity of ammunition consumption between the two sides is completely disproportionate. In the past few battles, it often faced ammunition shortages, and in this larger-scale conflict, it is only natural for it to continue.

Of course, the United States can provide support, but they also have to abandon Ukraine, and objectively, there is a time lag in transporting support. It’s similar to many companies that undertake projects worth billions but have to borrow money and sign an agreement with creditors due to cash flow problems worth only millions.

Biden claims that the US can support both Ukraine and Israel because “the US is the most powerful country in history.” How should we view this statement?

There are two possibilities for a short-term ceasefire: either continue to fight or both sides give each other a way out and silently come to a complete stop. Currently, the international community is putting pressure on implementing the latter, but if Netanyahu chooses it, he will face blame for inadequate defense.

So I think ground warfare should continue. It will either clearly determine the winner or exhaust the Jewish people to the point where they call for a ceasefire to protect Netanyahu’s political life. In the end, I still anticipate the role of the United States.

Biden spoke with Netanyahu on the phone to discuss the possibility of a “tactical ceasefire.” How should we interpret this? How will the conflict develop further?

稻草希望中的救命暂时停火 - Straw of hope in a life-saving ceasefire

However, regardless of the outcome achieved by either side’s efforts, this is a very positive thing for both sides of the conflict, and of course, it is also very, very difficult.

Salute to those who have been fighting on the front line, who have not given up their responsibilities and efforts even in the face of great difficulties!

According to previous statistics from local organizations in northern Gaza, there are estimated to be about 100,000 to 200,000 civilians in the area—most of whom have become refugees, hiding in their own dangerous buildings, or in hospitals, schools, and refugee camps.

These civilians are either the elderly, weak, and infirm, or the injured who cannot move, or the Palestinians who refuse to leave their homes, or the local people who do not know where to flee even in the face of war.

Under the tight blockade and relentless bombing by Israel, they can only receive 50 milliliters of drinking water and a small amount of food from relief every day.

What is 50 milliliters of water? Let me show you with a measuring cylinder:

It’s just a few sips to finish it. This is the daily life that all Palestinians in Gaza City face. And even so, these supplies are not stable because Israel can cut off the passage of supplies into Gaza at any time. The stock of humanitarian supplies from the United Nations has been running low for a long time.

Therefore, this hard-won 5-day ceasefire is definitely a lifesaver for these people.

In 5 days, perhaps they will have enough time to find another place where the artillery fire is not so intense. Or maybe more supplies can enter Gaza, bringing hope for the people in the city. It can also provide medical personnel with more medical equipment and supplies, so that the injured have a certain amount of time for treatment.

In short, after more than a month of Israel’s rampant anger, people finally see a glimmer of life.

Of course, everyone also knows that a temporary ceasefire of 5 days is also a good opportunity for Israel to reorganize its army, replenish its ammunition, and adjust its offensive strategy.

After 5 days, they will undoubtedly launch a more fierce and crazy attack on Gaza City. At that time, it will inevitably cause an even more intense humanitarian disaster.

Because by then, they won’t even have concerns about “accidentally injuring” hostages. They can bomb with impunity any place they believe Hamas might be hiding.

Israel-Hamas Temporary Ceasefire and Possible Peace

Actually, the ground forces were severely defeated by the locals, so they wanted to find a way out. The Israeli army is exhausted and needs to rest and recuperate.

Israel is also releasing imprisoned Palestinian women and children. It turns out that Israel is also doing this.

This time, the main purpose is to exchange prisoners/hostages. The exchange ratio is 1:3, meaning that for every Israeli person exchanged, three imprisoned Hamas members need to be released.

In addition to the exchange of prisoners/hostages, a ceasefire period is also being granted, and this period can be extended with further exchanges.

Basically, the goal is to transition from a temporary ceasefire of a few days to a short-term ceasefire of 10 to 15 days.

The Israeli army has been severely beaten in Gaza, suffering heavy losses, with over a hundred armored vehicles destroyed. They can no longer continue fighting. They are in desperate need of reinforcements, adjustment of their battle plans, and regrouping. Of course, they’re also waiting for military aid from the United States.

Israel is most likely looking for a breather. Regardless of the number of casualties or the losses of their advanced weaponry, it must be much greater than what Israel has publicized. Not to mention the enormous economic losses that they dare not mention.

Furthermore, the international pressure faced by the small bully is getting increasingly stronger, and they need a release valve.

Therefore, they were forced to reach a temporary ceasefire agreement with Hamas.

Peace is always achieved through struggle.

Of course, Israel has played this delaying tactic in its five Middle East wars. They take a breath and then strike even more fiercely.

Israel has a population of about 9.5 million, with 1.5 million ultra-Orthodox Jews who do not work or pay taxes, and 2.5 million Arab citizens who cannot be relied upon politically. The remaining mobilizable population is only 5.5 million.

The Israeli army currently has 200,000 regular troops and 360,000 reservists, making a total of 560,000, which is equivalent to having one out of every ten people being soldiers.

No country would allow such a large proportion of its working-age population, representing 6% of the total, to be detached from the economy for a long time, as it would undoubtedly cause a heavy burden on the national finances.

Even without external pressure, Israel’s size determines that they can only fight short and decisive wars (this has been the case in their previous five Middle East wars). Once they enter a long-term standoff or conflict, Israel’s national strength is simply inadequate to sustain its war ambitions.

In the Israeli territories closest to Gaza, two-thirds of the businesses have closed or reduced their operations. More than half of these companies have experienced revenue losses of over 50%.

Israel has only been fighting for a little over 40 days, and its finances are already stretched to the point where they have had to borrow $6 billion at high interest rates from international investors.

The war is far from over. Israel’s finances are already running out of options.

One of the hardest-hit sectors in Israel is its tourism industry, which is one of the pillars of its economy. Currently, it has come to a standstill.

Israel’s energy industry has also been severely affected. Due to the closure of the Tamar gas field, electricity prices in Israel have risen, natural gas exports have decreased by 70%, resulting in an economic loss of approximately $200 million per month.

Aside from these two major industries, almost all sectors in Israel have been burdened by the war. The Israeli central bank predicts that the annual economic growth rate will decrease from 3% to 2.3%.

Therefore, Netanyahu’s claim of a long-term war is just a scare tactic.

To maintain peace and protect their own interests amidst complex conflicts, one can only rely on resolute struggle and even sacrifice in battle to achieve these goals.

Sitting together and negotiating, just like those Arab “brother” countries with empty initiatives, continuous statements, appeals, condemnations, concessions, compromises, or forced and far-fetched demands, will never fundamentally solve the problem.

Struggle is the means for peace, and peace is the goal of struggle. They are both indispensable.

Temporary Ceasefire Offered in Israel-Gaza Conflict

Yesterday, Hamas claimed that it was “close to reaching” a ceasefire agreement with Israel. Many people were skeptical and believed that Israel would not easily agree to a ceasefire.

At this time, Israel is accepting a temporary ceasefire agreement, and the United States is exerting pressure behind the scenes. Biden made remarks about it yesterday.

The temporary ceasefire is expected to start on Thursday and last for five days. The official ceasefire time may change, depending on whether the Israeli military on the front lines listens or not.

The temporary ceasefire agreement is just a window for both sides to adjust their strategies and provide them with a period of relief. It does not mean that Israel has given up its attack on Gaza, nor does it mean that the Israeli military will withdraw from Gaza.

Although this agreement is a phased victory for Hamas, the Israeli military has surrounded Gaza, making it difficult for Hamas to obtain supplies and weapons assistance.

For the civilians in northern Gaza, it is undoubtedly good news. These days of temporary ceasefire are enough time for them to escape to the south.

After the Israeli ground forces entered Gaza, they did not quickly achieve the result of annihilating Hamas. They even repeatedly missed key locations such as the parliament building and Shifa Hospital. They couldn’t find any hostages or Hamas members, which raises doubts about the motives of the Israeli military.

Israel has no choice but to solve the hostage problem first, otherwise it will cause dissatisfaction from various parties. Because Israel is using the excuse of rescuing hostages and eliminating Hamas to surround Gaza with ground forces. The ground forces have been fighting for almost a month, but they have not achieved any “results.” It is difficult for Israel to appease the growing anti-war sentiment domestically.

Now Israel has no choice but to accept the temporary ceasefire conditions proposed by Hamas, which also indicates that the Israeli military has suffered heavy losses, definitely more than the death toll announced by Israel. Too many people have died, and they can’t continue the fight. They are just using the opportunity of the temporary ceasefire to redeploy their forces.

Blinken will visit Israel for the fourth time next week, which is quite frequent. It is estimated that he will “persuade” Israel not to occupy northern Gaza and not to extend the war outside of Gaza.