Institutional forecasts suggest that Huawei's HarmonyOS will surpass Apple's iOS to become China's second largest smartphone operating system this year. What is your perspective on this matter?

Huawei’s HarmonyOS Poised to Surpass iOS in China

According to data from Counter Point, Huawei’s HarmonyOS is on the verge of surpassing iOS to become the second largest operating system in the Chinese market.

Firstly, let’s verify the authenticity. TechInsights, a corporate certification official Weibo and WeChat account, published this article on January 3rd. While the original link to the WeChat article is provided, a screenshot from Weibo is available for reference.

The article originates from TechInsights' latest research report, “Global Smartphone Sales Forecast 2007-2028: 88 Countries' Operating Systems,” which has been released. This report covers the smartphone sales of 15 operating systems in 88 countries worldwide from 2007-2028. The full content is available here, but access requires becoming a customer of TechInsights:

TechInsights often excerpts some popular content from their paid reports to attract traffic, a normal commercial practice. Since it’s paid content, it’s not visible on the official website, and due to copyright restrictions, it’s unlikely to be found on other websites. However, once registered, you can see a preview of the document on the official website, although payment is still required to view the full report. The preview mentions:
“Android and Apple iOS will continue their duo leadership in global landscape but lose share to Harmony OS in the China market. The latter would become the second largest smartphone OS in the China market from 2024 onwards.”

Now, let’s see what the original text says:

Huawei’s HarmonyOS is set to replace Apple’s iOS as the second largest smartphone operating system in China by 2024

By the first quarter of 2023, HarmonyOS had already achieved an 8% market share in China.

Previously, Huawei’s Wang Chenglu stated that 16% is the threshold for an operating system’s viability. At the beginning of the year, Harmony’s 8% market share was still far from this threshold.

So, why does TechInsights predict HarmonyOS will surpass iOS in market share? This is due to Huawei’s successful navigation of the US 5G ban, and the introduction of new self-sufficient 5G products in Q3 2023. Huawei has been plagued by the supply constraints of the Kirin 9000s chipset, but it is expected that this limitation might ease in the coming months. Numerous reports indicate that by the end of 2023, Huawei will apply its 5G chipset to the mass-market Huawei Nova 12 series. In this context, TechInsights believes Huawei will make a solid recovery in 2024, reshuffling the Chinese smartphone operating system market and capturing shares from Apple and Android manufacturers.

Huawei’s weekly sales already took the lead in October, and subsequent supply sufficiency of the Nova and P series should result in even more impressive shipment volumes. Huawei surpassing Apple in sales isn’t a new phenomenon; in 2020, Huawei’s smartphone shipments already exceeded Apple’s once, and only due to unresolved chip supply issues did its market share subsequently decline.

Considering the ebb and flow of the high-end smartphone market share, as Huawei re-enters, iOS’s market share is expected to decline. As one rises and the other falls, HarmonyOS’s market share is striving to reach the viability threshold of 16%, which would essentially allow it to replace iOS as the second largest smartphone operating system in China.

Currently, the native application ecosystem for HarmonyOS has been fully launched, and next year, Harmony OS NEXT will be put into commercial operation.

The new challenge Huawei faces in the coming years is how to build an independent application ecosystem around HarmonyOS NEXT. Huawei has invested tens of billions in the Harmony ecosystem and has already reached cooperation with leading internet companies like ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, Meituan, NetEase, and Xiaohongshu to develop native Harmony applications. HarmonyOS NEXT will open to individual developers in the first quarter of this year. What native Harmony looks like and whether it will succeed will soon be revealed.

Analyzing the Surge of Huawei’s HarmonyOS Ecosystem Devices

I’m straightforward in my communication, so let me ask directly: I noticed in the problem description it was mentioned that the number of “HarmonyOS ecosystem devices” is about to surpass the number of iOS devices.

Here’s how I understand it: Since it’s “HarmonyOS ecosystem devices”, it means Huawei’s phones, tablets, watches, headphones, TVs, and all other “HarmonyOS ecosystem devices” together are surpassing just the iOS devices, namely iPhones. Is that correct? Can someone help analyze this?

It feels like my brain is growing with all these thoughts!

The description of the problem was changed, originally it stated:

The HarmonyOS ecosystem devices have already reached 700 million, indeed only a stone’s throw away from the 1 billion active iPhones.

For inquiries related to 1 billion active iPhones, please refer here:

Apple announced in its earnings call that the number of active iPhone devices has surpassed 1 billion, revealing several pieces of information.

Without mentioning the world’s largest, but speaking of the second-largest operating system in China, is there a dedicated HarmonyOS section in the major software market apps?

HarmonyOS? Where is it?

After being reminded, add the download page of the 360 Mobile Browser.

I don’t even need to look at anything related to One Piece. There are enough modifiers to tell me it’s the first.

Surprising Discoveries About HarmonyOS

I was quite surprised by this data.

So, I went to the official website of Huawei to check it out.

I didn’t expect there to be so many devices supporting HarmonyOS 4.0.

I remember that the Mate 20 was a phone from five years ago, and I didn’t expect it to be supported.

Fun fact: Apple’s iOS is only for phones, their computers run macOS, and the smartwatches use watchOS…

Meanwhile, Huawei’s HarmonyOS is now applied to almost all of their products.

This is also why Huawei has the confidence to claim that it will be even better.

Having a single system across multiple devices does indeed have a different user experience. At least for now, there’s no functionality like Huawei’s ability to project the phone interface onto a computer. I also want to play mobile games on my computer, and there’s really not much to play on a Mac.

I seem to remember that two years ago, to support Huawei, I bought a tablet for my wife, even though she mainly uses it for watching dramas.

But looking at the list, it seems like it can be upgraded. I’ll find some time to upgrade her MatePad.

Being able to cover devices from five years ago, it’s not surprising that the user base surpasses Apple. After all, Huawei’s sales were indeed higher than Apple’s five years ago, and in the first quarter of 2019, they even claimed the top spot in global sales. However, they faced pressure from the United States after the second quarter.

With so many users, I believe many manufacturers will voluntarily join the HarmonyOS ecosystem.

I remember it used to be Huawei approaching manufacturers for adaptation talks. It’s great, and I hope they continue to improve the system.

In the future, I have one more reason to switch from the Apple ecosystem to the Huawei ecosystem.

HarmonyOS and the Chinese Mobile Operating System Landscape

I deleted it myself.

Because I became a member of TechInsights, And then I saw that the original article was like this.

TechInsights does indeed have this report.

But here’s the problem: currently, in China, the largest mobile operating systems are Android, with a market share of 70% to 80%, and iOS, with a market share of 20% to 30%. Huawei’s so-called self-developed HarmonyOS, although it’s called the third, has a market share that can be almost ignored.

Under these circumstances, HarmonyOS cannot become the second-largest mobile operating system on its own. Because Huawei cannot capture such a large market share in a short period of time.

Unless the government strongly promotes it, bans government personnel from using Apple, and reduces the iOS market share, only then Huawei can become the second.

In fact, there have been constant rumors outside that Apple will be banned within the Chinese system. In the near future, it is highly likely that China will prohibit government personnel from purchasing Apple products for official use (including Tesla cars).

Once it is forbidden to use Apple within the system, the iOS market share will naturally decline. This way, HarmonyOS can take over Apple’s market share and a small portion of Android’s market share, becoming the second-largest mobile operating system in China.

However, in any case, Android should still maintain its position as the largest mobile operating system in China.

Actually, when it comes to Huawei, I don’t think their technological development is the issue. But Huawei’s propaganda and coercive consumer tactics have left many young people deeply disgusted.

Huawei always wins in its propaganda, targeting the middle-aged and elderly, because they are more susceptible to such tactics. But young people don’t like Huawei’s approach, this kind of unreasonable behavior only makes me feel like we’re being taken advantage of, and the whole company’s behavior is reminiscent of bandits and thugs.

Huawei can rely on the government to secure a large number of orders, but that doesn’t mean we like Huawei.

Some people might say, “HarmonyOS is so smooth.”

That’s because you don’t know that modern Android phones are also smooth.

Many people like grand narratives, they enjoy the feeling of winning. But if you make me pay the price within this narrative, that’s not impossible either. I can pay the price while spitting on it for a year.

Ugh!

What ranking does it get when it is no longer compatible with Android?

Great, I support it! I estimate that in another two years, “Apple” and “iOS” will become taboo words.

Approximately 600 million people in China earn a monthly income of 1000 RMB, while over 900 million people earn less than 2000 RMB per month. Are there really so many “leeks” willing to spend 1999 RMB to buy a Nova 11 SE?

Could you please not live in your own world, HiJun?

If there are still some people replying to Hongmeng-related content under this post as if it’s a matter of “business competition,” then don’t bother reading such replies.

Really. Because such responses are just pretending to be deaf and dumb, deceiving themselves and others.

Whether Hongmeng will replace iOS as the world’s second, let’s not discuss that for now, but Hongmeng is definitely not allowed to fail.

This is an inevitable outcome in the context of China-US competition, not just a simple “business competition.”

Not to mention those who still imply or hint at Hongmeng being a copycat… they understand even better.

This news has really surprised Zhang Xuefeng.

I do not approve of compatibility issues with Apple’s iOS caused by misleading information.

The Future of HarmonyOS: Challenges and Opportunities for Huawei

While I wrote about being bearish on Apple a few days ago, it’s a fact that Huawei’s smartphone shipments can’t skyrocket overnight. Ramping up production capacity takes time. No other brands have announced a switch in operating systems, and with decreasing smartphone replacement rates, it may take 5 to 10 years for Huawei to become China’s second-largest player in terms of market share.

However, we must acknowledge that HarmonyOS has enormous potential. If it can truly achieve an interconnected world, Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android will undoubtedly face stiff competition. Huawei leverages the advantage of being in the era of China’s manufacturing dominance, something other companies simply can’t match.

While both iOS and Android have their ecosystems, there will always be significant cultural differences in multinational ecosystems. If Huawei can create a larger and more efficient ecosystem within a smaller circle, the results are likely to surpass iOS and Android.

In terms of shipment volume alone, as long as Huawei’s chip production can keep up and convince other domestic smartphone brands to adopt HarmonyOS, climbing to the second position in the market could happen relatively quickly, although achieving it this year might be challenging.

At the same time, we must recognize that the smart home is still somewhat distant from the lives of ordinary people. If you buy a HarmonyOS phone but have no smart home devices to connect to, you won’t experience its advantages. Therefore, in the short term, the market is likely to underestimate HarmonyOS’s value.

Next, the focus should shift to the source of Huawei’s chip supply. HarmonyOS needs hardware support to thrive, but China is still subject to U.S. restrictions on chip manufacturing. Increasing production capacity and reducing costs will directly impact HarmonyOS’s market acceptance.

Furthermore, building the HarmonyOS ecosystem is crucial. An interconnected world requires the support of other smart products to showcase its value, making life more intelligent and encouraging more people to buy phones with HarmonyOS.

HarmonyOS represents a unique opportunity for China’s tech talents in this era. Missing out on it would be a great loss, but the challenges ahead are unprecedented. It’s worth looking forward to.

The Software Culture Origin and Challenges for HarmonyOS

As the birthplace of the hardworking culture, Huawei has been considered subpar in the software realm and now adds stubbornness to the mix.

HarmonyOS is user-friendly, but it’s inevitably looked down upon by purists. It stems from open-source roots, offering plug-and-play functionality with a UI and operations that some find uninspiring. Some even wish for more originality. Claiming it’s self-developed will require several years of refinement and gradual improvements, but it’s not too late for it to succeed in the long run.

It’s essential to acknowledge Huawei’s decent R&D efforts while addressing the existing gaps. Avoid being complacent in your bubble. Comparing yourself to iOS is acceptable, but do you genuinely believe there’s no significant difference? Beware of using populist sentiment to compensate for your own shortcomings, as that can be detrimental to the nation.

Blanket opposition is baseless, and blind support is lamentable.

Is this prediction feasible? There is a chance of success. It’s a simple notice: all government-funded personnel are prohibited from using Apple products while working and must switch to Huawei’s HarmonyOS smartphones.

Even seeking opinions can be omitted, or verbal communication may be more effective.

Isn’t it just said to be the third largest globally? Why look down on oneself so quickly?

To avoid any system clashes with all of you, I have decided to gradually resume using the Symbian system. Feel free, everyone.

New Huawei Inequality Emerges:

Huawei with 700+ Million > 1 Billion+…

And they’re just in the mobile business, Huawei probably counts NFC cards sent out through Huawei devices as misleading devices…

Huawei executives claim a total of over 700 million devices in the HarmonyOS ecosystem, expected to reach 800 million to 1 billion next year. What information does this reveal? Apple, in its earnings call, stated that the number of active iPhone devices has already exceeded 1 billion. What insights does this data provide?

What? Are you telling me China is second? Well, what’s there to boast about being number two in your own backyard? Is making money through government procurement at the expense of taxpayers a skill? Learn from Xiaomi, participate in global competition!

Yes, I did see the words “China’s second” in your question, but do you think there’s any meaningful value in answering such purely PR-driven organizational predictions? What’s the credibility of such institutions in the domestic market worth?

Now, do you understand why Huawei isn’t going public? Would you dare to pull such stunts with a publicly traded company?

Harmony OS becoming the second-largest operating system is as real as 30 answers trending on Zhihu.