Institutional forecasts indicate that Huawei's HarmonyOS will surpass Apple's iOS this year to become the second-largest smartphone operating system in China. What are your thoughts on this matter?

At the beginning of the new year, Huawei’s HarmonyOS concept stocks took off again. On January 4th, on the Beijing Stock Exchange, Biyi Kang (870199.BJ) surged by 30%, Yahuadian (301337.SZ) on the ChiNext board soared by 20%, Changshan Beiming (000158.SZ) increased by 4.18%, and the Wind Huawei HarmonyOS Index rose by 1.02%. This year is a critical year for the evolution of the HarmonyOS ecosystem. On January 2nd, Yu Chengdong, Huawei’s Executive Director, CEO of the Terminal BG, Chairman of the Intelligent Car Solutions BU, and Director of the Intelligent Terminal and Intelligent Car Components IRB, mentioned in his 2024 New Year message the start of a new decade for the future development of Huawei’s terminals. He specifically emphasized the need to build a strong HarmonyOS ecosystem and stated that 2024 is a crucial year for the native HarmonyOS, accelerating the development of various native HarmonyOS applications.On the news front, Huawei will hold an important HarmonyOS event in Shenzhen on January 18th, where they will announce the HarmonyOS ecosystem and the next chapter of HarmonyOS NEXT. In September 2023, Huawei announced the comprehensive launch of HarmonyOS native applications, and the HarmonyOS NEXT developer preview will be available to developers in the first quarter of 2024. In recent times, more than 40 top companies such as Meituan, Alipay, Ant Group, and Xiaohongshu have announced the launch of HarmonyOS native application development, preparing for the independence of the HarmonyOS ecosystem.In addition to Huawei promoting the development of HarmonyOS native applications for top internet companies on the consumer side, OpenHarmony for the B-side is also driving the development of HarmonyOS industry-native applications. According to Huaxi Securities' research report, OpenHarmony currently has more than 440 software and hardware products that have passed community compatibility testing, with contributions from more than 220 industry partners. OpenHarmony has become the root community for the next generation of intelligent terminal operating systems, serving as the digital foundation for the Internet of Things.Yu Chengdong also mentioned in his internal message that in the next ten years, Huawei’s terminals will continue to adhere to a strategy of intelligence across all scenarios, focusing on industries, products, and features. He pointed out that Huawei will continue to increase research and development investment, break through from core technology, and focus on four major scenarios: personal intelligence, office intelligence, travel intelligence, and home intelligence.In his New Year message, Yu Chengdong also emphasized the HarmonyOS ecosystem. He said that 2024 is a crucial year for the native HarmonyOS, and they will accelerate the development of various native HarmonyOS applications, focusing on winning two major battles: technological innovation and business model innovation. Through technological innovation, product innovation, and business model innovation, HarmonyOS will provide consumers with a high-end, refined, user-friendly, smooth, and secure experience. Through the integration at the operating system level, key capabilities will be standardized, and universal capabilities will be globalized, driving high-quality development of the Chinese industry.Huawei’s launch of native HarmonyOS applications also means that HarmonyOS will become independent and will no longer be compatible with Android applications. Wu Hao, CEO of Huawei’s Interactive Media Legion and President of Huawei Terminal Cloud Service Interactive Media BU, revealed last month that the number of devices in the HarmonyOS ecosystem has exceeded 700 million. Recently, research firm TechInsights released a forecast report stating that Huawei’s HarmonyOS will replace Apple’s iOS as China’s second-largest smartphone operating system in 2024, forming a tripartite competition in the Chinese market among HarmonyOS, iOS, and Android. HarmonyOS concept stocks are taking off! Yu Chengdong says this year is crucial, and on the 18th, they will announce new developments in the HarmonyOS ecosystem.

HarmonyOS Set to Surpass iOS as China’s Second Largest Smartphone OS

According to data from Counter Point, HarmonyOS is soon set to surpass iOS to become the second-largest operating system in the Chinese market.

Firstly, to confirm the authenticity, TechInsights' official Weibo and WeChat accounts both released the article on January 3. The original article is from TechInsights' latest research report, “Global Smartphone Sales Forecast 2007-2028: OS for 88 Countries,” which covers smartphone sales of 15 operating systems in 88 countries from 2007-2028. It’s included here and requires becoming a client of TechInsights to view:

TechInsights often excerpts some of the hot content from its paid reports to attract traffic, a common business practice. Due to it being paid content, it’s not visible on the official website and difficult to find elsewhere due to copyright restrictions. After registration, the website’s file preview is available, but payment is required to access the report. The preview mentioned:
“Android and Apple iOS will continue their duo leadership in the global landscape but lose share to Harmony OS in the China market. The latter would become the second largest smartphone OS in the China market from 2024 onwards.”

Let’s see what the original text says:

Huawei HarmonyOS will replace Apple iOS as China’s second-largest smartphone operating system in 2024.

By the first quarter of 2023, HarmonyOS had already reached a market share of 8% in China.

Previously, Huawei’s Wang Chenglu stated that 16% is the life and death line for operating systems; early in the year, HarmonyOS’s 8% market share was still far from this critical threshold.

So why would TechInsights make such a prediction about HarmonyOS surpassing iOS in market share? It is because Huawei has successfully overcome the U.S. 5G ban and launched new self-sufficient 5G products in Q3 2023. Huawei has been troubled by a tight supply of the Kirin 9000s chipsets, but this constraint is expected to ease in the coming months. There are numerous reports that Huawei will apply its 5G chipset to the mass-market Huawei Nova 12 series by the end of 2023. In this case, TechInsights believes that Huawei will make a solid recovery in 2024 and reshuffle the Chinese smartphone OS market, taking shares from Apple and Android manufacturers.

Huawei’s weekly sales have already taken the lead in October, and with the subsequent supply of the Nova and P series, there should be even more impressive shipment volumes. Huawei surpassing Apple in sales is not new; in 2020, Huawei’s phone shipments had already exceeded Apple’s once, but the market share slid subsequently due to unresolved chip supply issues.

Considering the ebb and flow of the high-end smartphone market, as Huawei returns, iOS’s market share is expected to decline. With one rising and the other falling, HarmonyOS’s market share striving to reach the 16% life and death line could essentially replace iOS as China’s second-largest smartphone OS.

Currently, the native HarmonyOS application ecosystem has been fully launched. Next year, Harmony OS NEXT will be put into commercial operation.

The new challenge Huawei faces in the coming years is how to build an independent application ecosystem around HarmonyOS NEXT. Huawei has invested tens of billions in the Harmony ecosystem and has reached cooperation with leading internet companies such as ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, Meituan, NetEase, and Xiaohongshu to develop native Harmony applications. HarmonyOS NEXT will be open to individual developers in the first quarter of this year. What native Harmony will look like and whether it can succeed will soon be seen.

Understanding the “HarmonyOS Ecosystem” Compared to iOS Devices

I’m straightforward due to my low emotional intelligence, and I have a question that’s been bothering me: I noticed that in the problem description it mentions the number of “HarmonyOS ecosystem devices” is about to surpass the number of iOS devices.

Here’s how I understand it: since it refers to “HarmonyOS ecosystem devices,” it means Huawei’s phones, tablets, watches, earphones, TVs, and all other “HarmonyOS ecosystem devices” surpassing just the iOS devices like iPhones. Is this the right understanding? Can someone help analyze this?

It feels like my head is itching, like I’m about to grow a brain.

The problem description has been changed; originally, it said:

The number of HarmonyOS ecosystem devices has reached 700 million, indeed only a stone’s throw away from the 1 billion active iPhones.

For questions related to the 1 billion active iPhones, please refer to this:

Apple announced in their earnings call that the number of active iPhones has surpassed 1 billion, which reveals several pieces of information.

Without discussing the top globally, just focusing on China’s second largest operating system, is there a dedicated HarmonyOS section in various major software market apps?

HarmonyOS? Where is it?

Upon reminder, including the download page for the 360 Mobile Browser.

When it comes to One Piece, I don’t even need to look at it. There are enough modifiers to make it the top.

Surprising Data about HarmonyOS Adoption

I was quite surprised by this data.

Then, I checked the official website of Juchang.

I didn’t expect that there are already so many devices supporting HarmonyOS 4.0.

I remember the Mate 20 was a phone from five years ago, and it’s surprising that it still supports HarmonyOS.

Fun fact: Apple has iOS for phones, macOS for computers, and watchOS for watches…

While Juchang’s HarmonyOS is now used in almost all their products.

This is also why Juchang has the confidence to claim that it will be even better.

Having a unified system for all devices and multiple different systems is indeed a different user experience. At least, for now, we can’t have the functionality Juchang offers, like projecting the mobile interface onto a computer. I also want to play mobile games on my computer; there isn’t much to play on Mac.

I seem to recall that two years ago, to support Juchang, I bought a pad for my wife, although she mostly uses it to watch dramas.

But looking at the list, it seems that it can be upgraded. I’ll find some time to upgrade her MatePad.

Being able to cover devices from five years ago, it’s not surprising to see Juchang surpassing Apple in terms of users. After all, Juchang’s sales were indeed higher than Apple’s five years ago. In the first quarter of 2019, they even achieved the highest global sales, but in the second quarter, they were suppressed by the Americans.

With so many users, I believe many other manufacturers will voluntarily join the HarmonyOS ecosystem.

I remember in the past, it was Juchang who had to negotiate with manufacturers for compatibility. It’s great, and I hope they continue to improve the system.

In the future, I’ll have another reason to switch from the Apple ecosystem to the Juchang ecosystem.

HarmonyOS Faces Challenges in Becoming China’s Second Largest Mobile OS

I deleted it myself.

Because I registered as a member of TechInsights

Then I saw the original article was like this.

TechInsights does indeed have this report.

But here’s the problem: Currently, China’s largest mobile operating systems are Android, with a market share of 70% to 80%, and iOS, with a share of 20% to 30%. Huawei’s self-developed HarmonyOS, despite being called the third-largest, has a share that can be almost ignored.

Under these circumstances, HarmonyOS cannot possibly become the second-largest mobile operating system on its own. This is because Huawei cannot take such a large share in a short period of time.

Unless the government strongly promotes and bans the use of Apple, causing the iOS percentage to drop, only then Huawei can become the second-largest.

In fact, there have been ongoing rumors that the Chinese government will ban Apple within its system. Next, China is likely to prohibit government employees from purchasing Apple products for official use (including Tesla cars).

Once Apple is banned within the government system, the iOS market share will naturally decline. This way, HarmonyOS can capture Apple’s share, as well as a very small part of the Android share, and rise to become China’s second-largest mobile operating system.

Nevertheless, Android is likely to maintain its position as the number one operating system in China.

In fact, when it comes to Huawei, I don’t think their technology is a problem. However, Huawei’s promotion and aggressive marketing tactics have made many young and middle-aged people resentful.

Huawei always boasts of its victories, capturing the attention of the older generation because they tend to fall for it. But the younger generation doesn’t like Huawei’s approach, which seems unreasonable and gives the impression of a company that takes advantage of its size, akin to bandits and rogues.

Huawei can rely on the government to secure a large number of orders, but that doesn’t mean we like Huawei.

Some people might say, “HarmonyOS is so smooth.”

That’s because you don’t know that modern Android phones are also smooth.

Many people enjoy grand narratives and that feeling of winning. But if you ask me to pay a price within this context, it’s not impossible. I can pay a price while spitting on it for a year.


What rank does it achieve when it is no longer compatible with Android?

Great, I support it! I estimate that in another two years, “Apple” and “iOS” might become prohibited words.

Around 600 million people in China earn a monthly income of 1000 RMB, and more than 900 million people earn less than 2000 RMB per month. Are there really so many people willing to spend 1999 RMB to buy the Nova 11 SE?

Please, can we ask HiJun not to live in their own world?

If there are still people replying to Hongmeng-related content under this post in the context of “business competition,” then don’t bother reading such responses.

Really. Because such replies are just playing deaf and dumb, self-deception.

Whether Hongmeng will replace IOS as the world’s second, that’s not the point for now. But one thing is certain, Hongmeng cannot fail and is not allowed to fail.

This is a result inevitably born out of the competition between China and the United States, not just a simple “business competition.”

Not to mention those who still implicitly or explicitly hint at Hongmeng being a shell, they understand even more.

This news has really caught Zhang Xuefeng off guard.

Hypnotizing cannot be compatible with Apple’s iOS, and I do not approve of it.

Huawei’s HarmonyOS: A Remarkable Journey to the Second Largest Smartphone OS

I don’t find it surprising at all; it’s the result of Huawei’s own efforts.

From its official release on August 9, 2019, to the latest HarmonyOS 4.0 launched on August 4, 2023, Huawei’s HarmonyOS has finally positioned itself to possibly replace Apple’s iOS this year. HarmonyOS has become the second-largest operating system for smartphones, thanks to support from over 90 Huawei smartphone models.

Hold your astonishment!

During the four years of the U.S. blockade, Huawei worked tirelessly to adapt HarmonyOS even to older Huawei phones, enabling them to run HarmonyOS. This strategy contributed significantly to the steady increase in HarmonyOS installations.

HarmonyOS 3.0 Update List

Surprisingly, the HarmonyOS 3.0 update list includes 71 Huawei phones that support the update. The oldest model on this list was released in 2017, and Huawei has provided substantial system update support for some older models for up to six years, surpassing the longevity of iPhone’s system updates.

This demonstrates Huawei’s commitment to adapting HarmonyOS to any eligible older models to gain more users. Starting from the first adaptation of HarmonyOS, Huawei has updated HarmonyOS for over a hundred Huawei phones.

HarmonyOS 4.0

It wasn’t until the release of the Huawei Mate60 series phones with the Kirin 9000s chip that Huawei turned the tide. Huawei’s smartphone sales began to lead by a considerable margin. HarmonyOS has evolved to version 4.0, matching the functionality and user experience of current top-tier flagship phones. Additionally, it’s preparing to remove both the Linux kernel and Android kernel in this year’s new HarmonyOS NEXT, operating independently and exclusively running software developed for HarmonyOS.

Applications of HarmonyOS

Huawei’s achievement of becoming the second-largest smartphone operating system with HarmonyOS was the result of their genuine efforts, not a conspiracy. The future of HarmonyOS is even more promising, with the potential to be adopted in computers, smart homes, wearables, smartphones, smart TVs, smart cars, and more, attracting the attention of many manufacturers.

Currently, numerous domestic software developers are choosing to develop applications for HarmonyOS, including big names like Xiaohongshu, Bilibili, and Tencent. This will make devices running HarmonyOS smoother and more comfortable to use. Moreover, with Huawei’s continued success, advertisements for HarmonyOS are likely to decrease or even disappear in the future.

We can all look forward to the Huawei Developer Conference in 2024 to see what astonishing surprises await us! HarmonyOS becoming the second-largest smartphone operating system is just the beginning!

The Prospects and Challenges of HarmonyOS in the Smartphone Market

While I recently wrote about the bearish sentiment towards Apple, it’s important to acknowledge that the explosive growth in Huawei’s smartphone shipments is unlikely to happen overnight. Scaling up production capacity is a gradual process, and there haven’t been reports of other brands switching operating systems. Additionally, the replacement rate of smartphones has significantly declined, making it likely to take 5 to 10 years to become the second-largest in China.

Nevertheless, we must recognize the tremendous potential for HarmonyOS. If it can truly achieve a connected world, Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android will face stiff competition. Huawei benefits from the era of China’s manufacturing prowess, which other companies can’t easily replicate.

While both iOS and Android have their ecosystems, an international ecosystem will undoubtedly have cultural differences. Huawei’s ability to create a larger ecosystem with a smaller user base will likely result in a more effective system compared to iOS and Android.

In terms of shipments alone, as long as Huawei’s chip production keeps pace and convinces other domestic phone brands to adopt HarmonyOS, climbing to the second position in the market may happen relatively quickly. However, achieving this in the current year may be challenging.

Furthermore, it’s crucial to realize that smart homes are still somewhat distant from the lives of most people. Even if you own a HarmonyOS smartphone, if there are no smart home devices to connect with, you won’t fully experience Harmony’s advantages. Therefore, in the short term, Harmony’s value may be underestimated in the market.

The focus should now shift to the supply source of Huawei’s chips, as hardware support is essential for HarmonyOS to thrive. However, the U.S. still has a grip on chip manufacturing in China. Increasing production capacity and reducing costs will directly impact HarmonyOS’s market acceptance.

Additionally, Huawei’s strategy for building the HarmonyOS ecosystem is crucial. After all, the true value of a connected world is realized through the support of other smart products, making daily life smarter and encouraging more people to buy phones with HarmonyOS.

HarmonyOS is a unique opportunity for Chinese tech talent in this era. It’s not an opportunity that comes around often, and the challenges it presents are unprecedented. It’s worth looking forward to.

The Origin of Hard Work Culture and the Rise of HarmonyOS

As the birthplace of hard work culture, China has excelled in hardware but is now making strides in software.

HarmonyOS is user-friendly but may not appeal to purists. It emerged from open-source roots, offering plug-and-play simplicity. Some find its UI and operations imitative. To claim it as a homegrown product, it needs years of refinement. Gradual improvements are key, and it’s never too late to achieve greatness.

Acknowledging China’s software development prowess is important, but recognizing gaps is equally crucial. Don’t be confined within a cocoon of self-assuredness. While emulating iOS is acceptable, assessing the gap between the two is necessary. Beware of using popular sentiment to mask your own capabilities, as deceiving the masses can be detrimental and even traitorous.

Blanket opposition is base, and unquestioning support is lamentable.

Is this prediction achievable? There is a possibility of success. It’s a simple matter of notification - all financial support personnel are prohibited from using Apple phones when they are working and must switch to Huawei’s HarmonyOS phones.

Even seeking opinions can be omitted, or verbal communication may be more effective.

Isn’t it just mentioned that it’s the third-largest globally? How come it’s looking down on itself so quickly?

To avoid system conflicts with everyone, I have decided to gradually resume using the Symbian system. Feel free, everyone.

New Huawei Inequality Emerges:

Over 700 Million Huawei vs. Over 1 Billion+…

And they’re just talking about smartphones, Huawei probably counts NFC cards sent through their devices as part of their ecosystem…

Huawei executives claim that the total number of HarmonyOS ecosystem devices exceeds 700 million, with an estimated 800 million to 1 billion expected next year. What does this reveal? Apple, during its earnings call, stated that the number of active iPhone devices has already surpassed 1 billion. What insights can we glean from these numbers?

What? You’re telling me it’s the second largest in China? Well, what’s so impressive about being a big fish in a small pond? Making money by sucking taxpayers dry through government procurement, is that a skill? Learn from Xiaomi, participate in global competition!

Yes, I did see the words “second in China” in your question, but do you think there’s any meaningful response to such pure PR-driven organization forecasts? What’s the credibility of such organizations in the domestic market worth?

Now you understand why Huawei didn’t go public, right? Can you afford to mess around like this with a publicly traded company?

HarmonyOS becoming the second-largest operating system is as real as 30 answers surging to the top of Zhihu’s trending topics.