How to view the performance of the A-share market on November 21, 2023?

How to evaluate the performance of the A-share market on November 21, 2023?

Market Expectations for Future Recovery

The Shanghai Composite Index is still in a rhythm of fluctuating growth, and we are now waiting for the start of a round of recovery.

Yesterday, the US stock market continued to rise, with the Dow Jones reaching 35,000, just a little distance away from its previous high.

The Shanghai Composite Index has been brewing for a long time here, and there may be a round of recovery.

Therefore, the CSI 300, SSE 50, including many large-cap stocks, are still expected to perform well, and the exchange rate is appreciating rapidly.

All of these factors may continue to push these varieties higher.

The market opened high today, with little change, whether it will rebound or not.

Currently, the situation in all aspects is relatively good. Let’s see if today can have a higher trading volume.

Now it is really the honeymoon period of the capital market. We don’t need to predict how much the Shanghai Composite Index should rise. It should rise now.

The downward pressure of the past has temporarily disappeared, and we can’t even return to 3150; it is really weak.

This is an unreasonable situation in the short-term market, with expectations and probabilities of short-term rises being on the higher side.

Even if we don’t talk about a bull market, a wave of oversold rebounds that completes at least the rebound target near 3150 is not a high requirement.

In practical terms, it means continuing to hold onto this wave of chips that have not yet seen a significant rise and waiting for opportunities.

In the short-term, small and medium-sized stocks are generally relatively expensive, and the best opportunities may only be in robots, humanoid robots, and future household robots.

I haven’t seen any particularly good opportunities in other areas. If you are interested, you can also study them. The short-term logic is relatively clear, and there is also potential for the future. Many major technology companies are also making layouts in this area, which is not the kind of opportunity in the fields of information technology, semiconductors, or new energy.

The government has also been actively promoting it, and we can also identify several truly relevant companies. This is not blind speculation; there is a trace to follow.

Apart from these short-term opportunities, the remaining option is to wait for the market to recover.

In such a short-term environment, there is no reason for us to be bearish.

Everything is favorable for the short-term stock market. Control your position well and wait for the market to behave normally.

Assets Worth Paying Attention to in the Current Economic Cycle

Cash is still important, controlling high-risk positions is crucial, not just stocks, but all high-risk positions need to be controlled well.

Allocate more in reverse repurchase agreements, large-scale deposits, government bonds, and savings-type dividend insurance that can guarantee returns and are relatively safe assets.

These are equivalent to saving money, with low interest rates but steady returns. When there are signs of a good market in the future, there will be a sign of a bull market.

Increase risk in the portfolio only when there is a correction, do not increase the position during rallies.

Today’s Investment Plan

Continue to hold index funds and large-cap stocks, wait for opportunities to recover, do as little short-term trading as possible; it’s not safe. Expect short-term positions to be profitable when the recovery begins and gradually close them.

Add positions during corrections, do not raise the position during rallies.

Stock Market Investment Risk Reminder

Every day, we will discuss some details about risks. Talk about wherever we think of it. In fact, the biggest risk is trading in a bear market, trading during a period without market movements, or trading when the bull market is too crazy.

Stock investment can be discussed in great detail, with many small directions, but most of the money is made in major trends.

It doesn’t work well in bear markets. You can see problems everywhere in a company, and its stock price doesn’t go up.

But in a bull market, most of these problems disappear because stock prices rise.

So sometimes the issues we are concerned about are not that important. What matters more is the timing of investment.

First, understand the overall trend, then make investments, conduct analysis, and control positions.

Focus on the big picture, pay attention to the small details as well, but the big direction is the most important.

In any case, there are risks in all aspects of investment. Investment itself is difficult.

The most challenging part is controlling oneself and controlling positions.

Based on the current market situation, we don’t have a very good profit space until the Shanghai Composite Index breaks out of its upward trend.

What we can expect is some oversold rebound trends, but sometimes they can be quite tough. This is a bear market, it is weak.

Once the Shanghai Composite Index starts its upward trend, the profit effect will be greatly enhanced.

The valuation of good companies will naturally go from undervalued to reasonable to overvalued.

This is the key, the overall trend is still the biggest risk.

Since the peak of the Shanghai Composite Index in 2021, reducing transactions, controlling positions, and steadily trading should be given attention.

We must persist until the start of the new bull market to protect our principal.

Stock investment is cyclic, and counter-cyclicality is the biggest risk.

We are likely to make it through now, and next year there may be a turning point.

But we still need to hold on, persevere, control positions well, and wait for the overall market to improve.

Only then can we happily make a relatively stable profit.

Thank you all for your likes

To persist in doing something year after year is really not easy. It is difficult to maintain the enthusiasm for creation without everyone’s support.

Wish you all make money and live a happy life!

That’s all for now. Let’s take a break and continue later.

Personal Position Sharing

Total position: 47%

Long-term position: 30%, Short-term position: 17%

Today marks the 1,019th day of writing retrospective notes [daily check-in]

I hope to meet more like-minded friends here and learn and grow together every day.

Remember: When greed arises, all thoughts become ashes!

Control the risks, and profits will come along.

Risk reminder: Investment involves risks, and entry into the market should be cautious!

Do not invest blindly or impulsively.

Please make scientific and rational investment judgments based on your own comprehensive situation and specific market conditions.

Study more in your spare time and enrich your investment knowledge.

Wish you all health, happiness, freedom, and money-making.

A-share Recovery, Strong Performance of Hot Sectors

Thank you for inviting me. The overall A-share market continues to rebound, and recently it is appropriate to have a slightly larger risk appetite and pursue some hot sectors.

Recent hot sectors include consumer electronics, robotics, Huawei concept, and investment banks.

Other sectors, such as pork, liquor, and real estate, will also rebound to some extent, but they are not the hottest and their upward momentum is not the strongest.

The Relationship between the Main Line Position and High Standards for Automobiles

Three dragons advance to the second stage, with emotions still at a high point.

The main line position of the automobile industry has not been reflected, while the real estate industry has shown low performance. This may indicate a new direction at present.

As the main line is uncertain, it is best not to take action. High standards for automobiles provide a cushion for this round of the cycle’s profits.

It is crucial to trace back the logic behind the high standards for automobiles in order to determine the main line position.

A-Share RMB Exchange Rate Boosts, Individual Stocks Show Mixed Performance

A-shares have experienced three consecutive days of gains, benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. However, individual stocks have shown mixed performance. What will happen next? How should we respond?

On Tuesday morning, A-shares closed with gains. A-shares benefited from the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and achieved three consecutive days of gains. However, individual stocks performed poorly. What will happen next? How should retail investors respond? Please read carefully and patiently, and believe that you will find the answers!

First of all, global stock markets rebounded across the board, and our RMB exchange rate successfully reclaimed the key level of 7.13. The RMB exchange rate has appreciated by over 2000 points in November, which has helped drive A-shares to rise as expected.

Secondly, today A-shares indeed surged to 3089, but encountered technical resistance and retraced slightly. Nonetheless, they still closed with a small positive gain of 13 points. The trading volume reached 628.2 billion yuan during the morning session. The net inflow of northbound funds was 4.246 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.172 billion yuan through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net inflow of 73.49 million yuan through the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. However, the main funds saw a net outflow of 16.745 billion yuan. Among the individual stocks, 2,428 rose while 2,680 fell, with 60 hitting the daily limit-up and 2 hitting the daily limit-down.

So, why did A-shares continue to rise while individual stocks showed mixed performance?

The first reason is that the CSI 1000 index, after rebounding and approaching the half-year moving average, saw an intraday high followed by a retracement and a slight decline of 0.14%. The CSI 1000 index has been rebounding continuously for 21 trading days and has encountered resistance from the half-year moving average, as well as profit-taking pressure from the rebound. As a result, small and medium-sized stocks in the CSI 1000 index began to experience profit-taking pressure and volatility.

The second reason is that the main funds saw a net outflow of 16.7 billion yuan. This means that some sectors have seen the main funds choose to reduce their positions to take short-term profits. Specifically, we can clearly see that sectors that have recently shown strong gains, such as lithography machines, Huawei’s computing power, chips, Huawei’s Harmony OS, and robotics, have experienced minor adjustments after reaching their highs. This indicates that profit-taking and selling-off signs are emerging.

So, what will happen next? First of all, let me tell you that the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise slightly, but it faces technical resistance at 3090, so there will likely be a period of consolidation and a change in trading style. As 3090 is a level of technical resistance, chasing after gains is not advisable.

Secondly, in terms of sectors, the real estate sector, which was mentioned as offering positive news in the morning review, has shown a leading increase in share price. Short drama game companies, which have performed well recently, continue to experience strong gains. Securities firms and automobile manufacturers, on the other hand, have seen their share prices rise and then decline.

So, how should retail investors respond?

First of all, we need to pay attention to the fact that the Shanghai Composite Index faces technical resistance at 3090. The rebound period of 21 days has now entered a phase of consolidation, and the three consecutive days of gains in A-shares were expected.

Secondly, after 21 days of continuous gains, small and medium-sized stocks represented by the CSI 1000 index will experience short-term profit-taking pressure and volatility. Therefore, pay attention to the positions of individual stocks. You can appropriately reduce positions if they are at high levels.

Finally, just like the decline in share prices of securities firms, individual stock positions are crucial. Stocks that have risen sharply in the short-term can be sold for profits, but those positioned at the bottom or in the middle still have potential. Therefore, the key is to consider the positions of individual stocks from a comprehensive perspective.

In summary, the overall market is expected to continue rising today, but individual stocks will show mixed performances. Pay attention to the positions of individual stocks, avoid chasing after gains, and be cautious.

A-share Outlook for Wednesday: Market Signals Trend Reversal, but Individual Stock Market Remains Depressed.

I sincerely remind stock investors! A-shares rose and then fell on Tuesday, will it continue to fall on Wednesday? Whether you are currently empty or full, I will give you a distinct directional judgment!

  1. Straight to the point, A-shares rose and then fell today, with the market breaking through the 60-day moving average but not stabilizing. The market can only be described as pierced rather than breaking through. In addition, the market lacks the strength and intensity for explosive reversal that investors have been eagerly anticipating. The upward momentum is far from enough, and market volume has not been stimulated. After waiting for such a long sideways trend, the reversal ends weakly. It is definitely false to say that there is no regret. A-shares did not find stability after the opening surge, but the fact that signals were nevertheless released is positive. The market still chose to go up, and the next task is to turn current pressure into support in order to gain the momentum to target the annual line.

  2. Taking a look at the current market data, there were 1947 rising stocks and 3146 falling stocks in the two markets. The index showed a reversal, but individual stocks have consistently declined more than risen. It can be seen that while the index has been rising, today’s market is much weaker than yesterday’s. Therefore, we can say that the breakthrough of the index lacks a certain level of color, and the fundamental reason is that enough individual stock market trends have not been stimulated. Foreign capital inflow is close to 1 billion, while large-scale capital outflow exceeds 30 billion, with a resulting sluggish individual stock market. This pulling and tugging has exposed the most critical problem in the market. We still need to work hard to overcome it!

  3. In terms of sector trends, the market’s main focus is still on super short-consecutive leading stocks, attracting the attention of all investors. On one hand, it is certainly eye-catching that the leaders in the new year have taken the initiative. This unmissable wealth is impossible to avoid for any stockholders. On the other hand, it is now evident that thematic individual stocks tend to rotate and have not stimulated a leading market trend. Under the lack of collective strength, the market naturally lacks attractiveness. Today, real estate, media, infrastructure and other old patterns emerged, and there is indeed no need for in-depth interpretation. It is expected that the follow-up will affect various sectors, being driven by the high standards set by these super short-term stocks.

  4. In summary, the current market trends seem to be dwindling. The main reason is that the super short-term sentiment today has become diversified, and the individual stock benefits in the market have not been stimulated. As a result, the upward momentum of the index is not strong enough, and the pressure points cannot hold. Of course, it is also possible that the market has chosen to operate in a slow rising trend, because A-shares have come down unilaterally from above 3400 points. There are indeed massive trapped positions that need to be consumed. As long as we proceed steadily, a slower speed is not a problem. As long as we can cross the line of the year, there is still a chance for an explosive and intense market.

That’s about it, recently all my attention has been focused on the leading stocks in the new year. Friends familiar with me know that we never miss this feast every year. I will also announce the complete strategy in my evening article, so be sure not to miss it. That’s all, if you like my analysis, please like it!

Here, I will discuss a meat-eating opportunity that was clearly identified in November!

Starting in June, Huaxi Shares, which I led my fans to strategically invest in, gained more than 90%. In late August, Kua Yue Ban’s Zhongma Transmission also gained 5 boards. Recently, the Fang [stock], Hengrun Shares, which I led my fans to invest in, has also gained 57%. These are all reviews of actual trades, and everyone can see the strength. I never boast!

Recently, I spent 15 hours selecting a stock that can double in value. The characteristics of this stock are: continuous inflow of large funds in recent times, in line with the hotspots for the next round of market speculation, currently in a trend of oscillating upward with a high degree, technically forming a curved bottom, good, trend breakthrough above the platform resistance. It is expected to have at least a 60% increase in the short term, with a potential to double. Tomorrow is the best time for those who want to feast on meat!

It is presented in the chart, please carefully observe the chart, it will definitely be helpful to you.

The above personal opinions are for reference only and should not be used as a basis for buying or selling. Profits and losses are your own responsibility. The market is risky, so be cautious.

I am someone who has experienced three bull and bear markets, and I am good at logical stock selection and technical timing. I only engage in trades within my knowledge range, and every direction I take has been confirmed by the market.

On my WeChat public account (ZuoshouXiaoyu), I interpret the outlook for the day and the subsequent direction selection from different perspectives in detailed posts. They are all very valuable content, and I recommend interested friends to read them attentively.

Capital Playing the Stock Market at the Beijing Stock Exchange

Follow the trend, with continuous upward movement, shallow pullbacks, difficult to take a bearish view, go long with the trend;

Today’s highlight is the Beijing Stock Exchange. What kind of capital is playing at the Beijing Stock Exchange? It is mostly a battleground for market makers. This is mainly due to the recent restrictions on stock financing at the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, causing large funds to move to the Beijing Stock Exchange. Therefore, the CSRC 50 Index has soared and almost all the stocks at the Beijing Stock Exchange have risen.

However, the sentiment in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is not that bad. Northbound funds have resumed inflow, mainly buying some weighted blue chips. Therefore, today saw strong performance of large-cap stocks, which had the most obvious impact on the index. Today, the index broke through the pressure of the 60-day moving average, mainly due to the strength of the weighted stocks.

The strength of the weighted stocks has diverted attention from small-cap themes. Today, stocks with limit-up also showed differentiation, and strong stocks showed divergence at high levels. On the other hand, there was a rebound in the previously less-rising weighted rotation, which can be considered as a normal market rotation.

Considering that the index is facing pressure to break through the 60-day moving average, it needs the weighted stocks to lift the index. Therefore, it is normal for small-cap themes to voluntarily step back, waiting for the 60-day moving average to stabilize, which will allow the index to climb up to a new level. At that time, when the weighted stocks provide a strong support, the themes will continue their performance.

So, don’t worry, this wave of market is still operating normally. The real acceleration has not yet appeared. As long as you are not chasing the rising and falling frequently, even if you lie still, you have been recovering in the past month.

Having dreams of making profits should not stop at just being excited, but should also be put into action!!

Looking at the content of yesterday’s article, I talked about Keli earlier, and it turned out that there were more stocks and larger gains than I imagined:

With my consistent reminder, everyone is now aware of it, and today we enjoyed the fourth daily limit-up of Keli!

The advantage of laying ambushes compared to chasing stocks is that here, we always have the initiative. Latecomers will always carry our sedan chairs for us, instead of forcing us to chase after rising stocks.

Since September, we have been focusing on Huawei, from Hualitech to SiliSolar, OFILM, and then to Rapoo Technology and Keli. Although the rhythm is slow, the profit is more stable, and holding them for the medium term has brought us profits of more than 20 points.

Especially, I can confidently say that everyone has participated in these stocks!

Now that the RMB is appreciating, the opportunities ahead are consistent with last year’s rhythm, playing the main themes. At this stage, we should gather funds and concentrate our positions in order to lay ambush for the next main phase.

Chinese people all have a preference for a good year. Lao Suo is no exception. There is still an offline field research at the end of November. I am still arranging it for now, but if I decide to go, it will definitely disrupt your schedules for the rest of this month.

Lao Suo doesn’t hide anything. I will also inform you in advance about my personal arrangements. The study group is not open for anyone who wants to join, after all, if it is not suitable for you, it would be a waste of space.

I have mentioned a lot in yesterday’s article about what the study group has to offer and what the future holds. I believe everyone already has a certain understanding based on the past individual stock returns.

Talking about how much money the study group can make for everyone in the future is too shallow!

The only expectation for joining the group is that each friend can learn the skills to make a living in the group!

In the age of quantification, rotations happen quickly. If you can’t make money or keep getting harvested repeatedly, it is because you lack the confidence to take the big opportunities:

Money is only a small part; more importantly, it is the confidence and understanding that profit gives you after making a big profit once!!

Today, Lao Suo won’t talk too much about grand speeches, various sentiments, or income statistics. What I can give you, I will tell you. There can’t be any falsehood here. Every time the study group starts, the blessings are always similar:

I hope you can achieve something and make a change from here on!!

Running Away and Trading Skills

Running away early means enjoying the benefits, while running away late means facing the consequences, my friend.

Buy when the market is trending down, don’t buy when it’s going up. Selling is only profitable when prices are rising.

Welcome to follow my knowledge platform “A-Stock Trend” to seize opportunities and escape unharmed.

Reasons for the market rebound: changes in real estate policies, appreciation of the RMB, Moutai’s dividend distribution.

Important changes in the market! Three reasons behind today’s market rebound.

First, there has been a major shift in real estate policies. The previous “three red lines” have changed to the following requirements:

  1. The growth rate of real estate loans granted by each bank should not be lower than the industry average.

  2. The growth rate of loans granted to private real estate developers should not be lower than the bank’s own real estate loan growth rate.

  3. The growth rate of mortgages granted to non-state-owned real estate developers and individuals should not be lower than the bank’s own mortgage growth rate.

This policy shift indicates a significant change in the direction of real estate policies, from suppression to support. Additionally, recent personnel appointments in the financial sector have also shown strong focus from the management on real estate and a clear determination to stabilize housing prices.

If real estate does not decline, there is no reason for banks to fall. When real estate stabilizes, macro data will improve as well. This is a general market logic, and today the real estate sector has contributed at least half of the overall increase.

Can we invest in real estate then? To be honest, a truly good industry does not rely on policy support to survive.

Would you invest in a healthy person or someone in the ICU? Ha! Currently, real estate is still not a viable investment. Whether real estate makes money or not depends on how crazy people are about buying houses.

Second, the RMB has appreciated significantly. Today, the RMB continued to appreciate to around 7.13, with an overall appreciation of more than 3%. When the RMB appreciates, foreign capital stops flowing out, and there will be more funds converting into RMB to invest in the A-share market. When the RMB depreciates, foreign capital flows out; when the RMB appreciates, foreign capital flows in. The rise and fall of the stock market lingers in the inflow and outflow of funds. This has basically become a trend.

Third, Moutai announced dividend distribution, which has driven the entire liquor industry. In addition, Citigroup in the United States estimated its target price for Moutai at 2272 yuan, while domestic brokerage firm Jun’an provided a target price rating of 2312.92 yuan. This upward trend in the liquor sector has driven the entire consumer sector.

Therefore, A-shares have surged today… Does it mean that a bull market has arrived? As for me, I don’t believe that there will be any major market trends on a macro level, and I don’t think the current stock market will become a big bull market either. The positioning of the margin financing market has not been resolved.

The above are the trading experiences accumulated over 16 years of stock trading. I have gone through many ups and downs, and these are heartfelt words of realization. I hope they are useful to everyone. Produced by Yiyue Studio, it is guaranteed to be of high quality.

Follow our official account (Trader Xiaoyu), and you will definitely gain something. Helping others is helping oneself. I hope that no matter how the market changes, we can continue walking together and still be able to laugh at the stock market in ten years' time!

A-share market has a good opening trend

A-share: Be prepared! A gap-up breakthrough in the morning, and there may be another good show in the afternoon!

The market trend in less than five minutes after opening this morning is unfolding as the best scenario. Many skeptics have completely shut their mouths. Anyone who has read Lao Yang’s article last night would not be surprised at all. Because Lao Yang made it clear last night that there is no doubt about today’s market, it will continue to rise and close in the positive.

He also mentioned that from the trend of the Shanghai 50 and the CSI 300, the second time they hit a bottom and rebounded yesterday, it is obvious that the short-term bottom of the weighted stocks has been successfully determined, and there will be a recovery next. Therefore, the weighted stocks that have been suppressing the index recently have started to cooperate. Thus, it will be easier for the market to move upwards, and opportunities will emerge in the recovery and rebound of the weighted stocks.

Furthermore, he mentioned that yesterday the index hit a bottom and rebounded strongly, and the most crucial point is that the index spanned the entire recent volatile range from low to high. Moreover, yesterday’s weak-to-strong rebound was clearly a test of support and resistance, indicating that the market has reached a key turning point. The index has reached its limit and will surely exert upward pressure, thereby opening up the space for further increase.

It is obvious that Lao Yang’s prediction was completely accurate last night. So, for the afternoon market, Lao Yang continues to make the following points:

1. There is no doubt that, for the afternoon market, the opinion from last night remains unchanged: it will close in the positive.

2. Looking at the short-term trend, the center of gravity of the index has successfully moved up. The 20-day moving average crossing above the 30-day moving average has formed a golden cross, and the moving averages have formed a perfect bullish arrangement. In addition, looking at the trading volume, as of now, the trading volume has reached 5560Y, which is an increase of 670Y compared to yesterday. Therefore, with sufficient support, the index will definitely close in the positive.

  1. The yuan will continue to rise. Yesterday, the northbound funds chose to flow out, which Lao Yang mentioned was highly illogical. Therefore, this phenomenon will not persist, and there is a greater possibility of asset allocation preparation: leaving from one place first and then entering another. It is obvious that yesterday’s situation coincides with what Lao Yang said at noon yesterday. Yesterday afternoon, the northbound funds began to flow back, and today, the highlight is the continuous inflow of northbound funds.

  2. Last night, it was mentioned that from the trend of the Shanghai 50 and the CSI 300, the second time they hit a bottom and rebounded yesterday, it is obvious that the short-term bottom of the weighted stocks has been successfully determined. And now, the weighted stocks that have been suppressing the index recently have started to cooperate. Therefore, with the help of the weighted stocks, the index will not perform poorly today.

Alright, as someone who never follows the crowd, and with clear views and a sense of responsibility, I have warned everyone in advance of the big ups and downs several times. What are the results? The market has given the answer. I have always been firm in my analysis and have never been shaken in the slightest. The market will eventually validate my analysis. This is the significance of your attention.

I won’t say much more about the rest, because I have never failed to predict the explosion before. That’s it, thumbs up!

Difficult to Predict the High Point of Rebound

My analysis on November 15th remains unchanged.

“Novice investors die chasing price increases, while experienced investors die trying to catch the bottom!” The most difficult part about catching the bottom is accurately predicting the high point of the rebound. Even experienced investors cannot do it.

By the time everyone realizes that the high point has not yet been reached, it will already be too late. There will be a precipice or an opening with a subsequent decline, and everyone will be trapped at the high position, slowly standing guard.



My historical analysis