Has Iran experienced a series of bomb attacks, and is it related to the current Red Sea crisis?
Summary of Saudi-Iranian Diplomatic Discussions
The significance is marginal.
After the New Year, the head of the Saudi Security Committee visited Iran to discuss several matters including intelligence sharing, direct flights, the Palestine-Israel conflict, and the Red Sea.
The Red Sea topic involves the Houthi armed forces.
The results of the talks are quite problematic. First of all, the matter of direct flights will not resume immediately due to technical reasons.
In March, there is a major pilgrimage event in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, and about 6 million Iranians are expected to visit. Both sides face challenges. Not only does Saudi face significant security pressures, but dissatisfaction with Saudi and Iran’s roles in the recent Palestine-Israel conflict is prevalent among the Arab population.
The potential for incidents is a worry, with some seemingly hoping for trouble, making prevention difficult.
The second issue is attitudes towards Israel. Iran expressed dissatisfaction with Saudi Arabia’s permissiveness towards the U.S. and Israel using Saudi territory and bases to attack the Houthis. In response, Saudi Arabia effectively challenged Iran to take a more direct action against U.S. interests in the region, which angered Iran.
The Red Sea issue was also discussed. Saudi Arabia’s stance is clear: they do not support either side and wish to avoid any provocations from the Houthis.
Additionally, the topic of Houthi armed forces was brought up. Iran mentioned that some of the weapons have been locally produced by the Houthis and are not entirely Iran’s responsibility. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia highlighted the Houthis' continuous terrorist attacks and blockades in the Red Sea, arguing that these actions undermine the Houthis' legitimacy internationally.
Overall, that’s the general state of affairs.
At the end of December, the Saudi Prince made some remarks about the relationship with Iran in an interview. He stated that reconciliation with Iran does not mean Saudi Arabia aims to dominate the Arab world. He made clear Saudi Arabia’s stance on the spread of Shia Islam by Iran and the nuclear issue. However, efforts to maintain regional reconciliation should not be reversed.
The nuclear issue is of utmost importance to the region, and Saudi Arabia has no retreat. They are firmly against Iran obtaining nuclear capabilities.
Iran Leader Vows Harsh Response to Deadly Bombing
Iranian leader vows a harsh response to the fatal bombing that killed 84 people.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed a “harsh response” to the bombing attack on the crowd commemorating the anniversary of spy chief Qasem Soleimani’s assassination by the United States.
The attack in the southern city of Kerman resulted in 84 deaths and numerous injuries. The head of Iran’s emergency services revised the death toll down from an earlier 95 on Thursday morning.
So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
In a statement on Wednesday evening, Khamenei declared: “The cruel criminals must know that from now on, they will face a harsh punishment, undoubtedly, they will receive a harsh response.”
President Ebrahim Raisi’s political deputy, Mohammad Jamshidi, blamed Israel and the United States. However, the United States has denied any signs of Israel’s involvement and dismissed any suggestions of Washington’s participation.
Suspicions may fall on Arab separatists and Sunni jihadist organizations like the Islamic State (IS), which have launched attacks on civilians and security forces in the country in recent years.
At the time, the Islamic State welcomed the death of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, whose militia fought against the organization in Iraq for many years.
Soleimani was considered the second most powerful person in Iran after the Supreme Leader, later killed in a US drone strike in neighboring Iraq in 2020.
The attack on Wednesday coincided with the death of the deputy leader of the Iran-backed Palestinian organization Hamas in an Israeli drone strike in Lebanon, heightening tensions in the region.
Videos broadcasted by Iranian state television showed a large crowd participating in a march on a road, with banners of Qasem Soleimani hanging on both sides.
After one of the explosions, screams could be heard followed by people running in panic.
Iranian media reported that the first bomb detonated around 15:00 local time (11:30 GMT) approximately 700m (2,300 feet) from the Martyrs' Garden cemetery around the Saheb al-Zaman mosque on the outskirts of Kerman.
They said the second explosion occurred about 15 minutes later, about 1 kilometer from the cemetery, targeting people fleeing from the first blast.
The governor of Kerman province told the state news agency IRNA that both explosions occurred outside of security checkpoints, and authorities are confident that the explosions were caused by bombs. However, it is still unclear whether these bombs were detonated remotely or by suicide attackers.
The hardline Tasnim news agency, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, earlier quoted sources saying that “two bags filled with explosives” were apparently “detonated remotely.”
Isna news agency quoted a witness saying: “We were walking towards the cemetery when a car suddenly stopped behind us, and a garbage bin filled with bombs exploded.”
“We only heard the explosion and saw people falling.”
The Iranian Red Crescent reported that the dead included at least one caregiver who was sent to the scene of the first explosion and hit by the second blast.
Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi stated that the second explosion caused the most deaths and injuries and an investigation has been launched to determine the masterminds behind the attack.
President Ebrahim Raisi called the bombing incident a “cowardly act” perpetrated by “criminals who hate Iran and followers of terror and darkness.”
Former UK ambassador to Iran, Rob Macaire, told BBC that it is still unclear who is behind the bombing.
He said: “Obviously, opposition groups are capable of violent attacks, although limited.” “I don’t think they are attacks threatening the regime, but they will certainly exacerbate the situation.”
The spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres strongly condemned the attack and expressed deep condolences to the “families of the victims, the people, and the government of Iran.”
The EU condemned the bombing in the “strongest terms” and expressed solidarity with the Iranian people, while Russian President Vladimir Putin described the attack as “shocking in its cruelty and cynicism.”
Some Gulf countries and Turkey condemned the attack.
The leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah movement stated that the victims were “martyrs who died on the same path, cause, and fight led by Soleimani.” Hezbollah is a powerful armed organization, supported by Iran, like Hamas.
As the commander of the Quds Force, the overseas operations branch of the Revolutionary Guard, Soleimani was the architect of Iran’s regional policy.
He was responsible for the Quds Force’s clandestine missions and provided guidance, funding, weapons, intelligence, and logistical support to ally governments and armed groups, including Hezbollah and Hamas.
Then-US President Donald Trump ordered the 2020 drone attack, describing Soleimani as the “number one terrorist in the world” and claimed that his forces had killed hundreds of American civilians and soldiers over the past two decades.
The Iranian government accused the United States of engaging in international acts of terrorism and issued arrest warrants for Trump and other officials.
(Translated from BBC “Iran leader vows harsh response to deadly bombings that killed 84”)
Complex Dynamics of the Middle East: Iran’s Chess Moves
The serial bombings in Iran and the Red Sea crisis are part of the Middle Eastern chaos, primarily rooted in the Israel-Palestine conflict, itself a manifestation of the strategic tussle between the United States and Iran. The entire Middle East serves as the chessboard for this struggle, with Iraqi militia, Houthi forces, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, and Hamas acting as Iran’s pawns. The Red Sea crisis is merely one move in this grand strategy, as are the serial bombings within Iran.
Many are unaware that before the Islamic Revolution, Iran was one of America’s most significant allies in the Middle East. It was a high-level ally, equipped with F-14 heavy air superiority fighters, exclusive to the United States, a testament to its status. The American strategy then was to support Israel and Iran while suppressing other Middle Eastern nations.
However, the 1979 Islamic Revolution unexpectedly overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty, establishing an Islamic theocracy and severing ties with the US. Despite losing Iran, the US found a silver lining. Iran’s Shia identity put it at odds with Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, leading to a tripartite division in the Middle East among Israel, Sunnis, and Shias.
In response, the US promptly adjusted its strategy, allying with Sunnis to isolate Iran and encouraging Sunni-Israeli reconciliation. After the revolution, Iran engaged in an 8-year long war with Iraq, while the US imposed decades-long harsh sanctions. Iran’s survival was arduous. Meanwhile, Israel didn’t face any more significant Middle Eastern wars. After rallying Sunni spokesperson Saudi Arabia, the US continually pushed for Saudi-Israeli peace, somewhat successfully balancing Iran with a Sunni coalition.
The US’s Middle East strategy, while mostly sound, faltered at two critical points: the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the indulgence of Israel.
Saddam was an enemy to both the US and Iran, initiating the Iran-Iraq War. The US’s successive Gulf and Iraq wars toppled Saddam’s regime and left Iraq in ruins, unable to counterbalance Iran. The end result was ironically beneficial to Iran, as Iraq fell into its sphere of influence, becoming a critical part of the Shia crescent.
Israel’s greed and territorial expansion exacerbated the Israel-Palestine conflict. With the US’s backing, Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and Egypt ceased hostilities with Israel. Had Israel restrained itself, reconciliation with Saudi Arabia might have been possible, potentially ending its conflict with the Sunni world. Instead, Israel’s aggressive expansions and blockades led to significant attacks from Gaza, igniting the Israel-Palestine conflict.
While the US’s efforts to broker peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel stumbled, China’s endeavors to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran progressed smoothly. In March 2023, under China’s mediation, Iran and Saudi Arabia resumed diplomatic relations after seven years of severed ties. Saudi Arabia now speaks for the Sunnis, and although Egypt’s influence has waned, it remains significant within the Sunni bloc. If Iran further restores relations with Egypt, it could essentially achieve reconciliation with Sunnis. This would shift the tripartite dynamic to a Sunni-Shia alliance against Israel, potentially enveloping Israel in isolation and collapsing the US’s strategic layout in the Middle East.
The serial bombings in Iran are like a stone thrown into an already turbulent lake, likely to further destabilize the Middle East and impact the Red Sea crisis and the Israel-Palestine conflict.
ISIS has come forward to claim my actions.
This…
Iran is Shia, and ISIS is Sunni. Iran was actively involved in combating ISIS as early as 2017.
Over the years, ISIS has also been carrying out attacks within Iran’s borders. It seems that ISIS is wondering why they were ignored when I was tirelessly trying to make a big headline. After all, why did you never consider me?
Speaking of which, why was ISIS ignored?
Boomerang Effect
ISIS has claimed responsibility for this series of consecutive bombings, citing Iran’s support for the Shiite sect, which ISIS considers heretical.
ISIS released a statement claiming that they carried out the suicide attacks using explosive vests, targeting Shiite Muslims attending the Soleimani memorial ceremony.
What happened to Israel’s involvement?
Iran wasted no time in accusing Israel of the attacks without even conducting an investigation. It’s astonishing how blatantly they shifted the blame, and yet some people believed it.
This is not the first time Iran has resorted to such tactics. When the killing of an unveiled Kurdish girl by religious police sparked outrage in Iran, they repeatedly tried to shift the blame, alleging that subversive forces were inciting riots, but they couldn’t provide any evidence.
Amusing Turn of Events
Blaming Israel Again
Israel has always been quick to retaliate against its enemies, specializing in targeted missions that minimize civilian casualties.
In the case of these consecutive bombings, one must question if it were indeed Israel behind them, what was their intended target? Iranian civilians?
Iranian civilians have been simmering with anger for the past few years due to incidents involving religious police and headscarves. Would Israel really aim to elevate the religious regime by bombing them?
Moreover, Israel typically operates openly to ensure that the world knows it’s responsible, seeking a deterrent effect. Just last year, rumors circulated that Israel was behind the drone attacks on Iranian arms depots and factories, and Iran did nothing in retaliation.
In simple terms, this incident is advantageous for whoever benefits from it. Currently, there are three parties with vested interests: Iran itself, Hamas, and Russia.
Claiming that the United States and Israel were involved, one has to wonder, what benefit do they gain from attacking Iranian civilians and turning the Middle East into chaos?
The verdict is in, it’s the work of ISIS, and they’re even more despicable than heretics.
Planned Terrorist Attack: Speculation and Analysis
First and foremost, this is undeniably a well-planned act of terrorism, far from being an ordinary series of bombings.
Disclaimer: The following is purely speculative with no evidence to support it. Treat it as a work of fiction.
The Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, has a long history of operations within Iran. Previously, with the presence of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, it was convenient for them to conduct operations across the border. After the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the Taliban in Afghanistan and Iran found common ground in combating the creators of terrorism. There have been successful captures, and there are certainly more individuals like those already detained. Remember, there were even lingering spies from the days of Chiang Kai-shek. As Iran is a key player influencing the Middle East, it’s highly unlikely that there are no covert operatives within its borders. Many of Iran’s domestic terrorism activities are linked to the CIA and Mossad.
At the present moment, Israel is facing conflicts on both its northern and southern fronts. The crucial northern front consists of Lebanon, followed by Syria, and further back, Iran. In Yemen, the Houthis are backed by Iran. To alleviate pressure along the Red Sea and the northern front, creating acts of terrorism within Iran to destabilize the country or launching attacks against key figures and high-value targets is a plausible strategy. It would be difficult for the United States to intervene militarily in Yemen at this time. If key individuals within Iran or coordinators on both the Lebanese and Yemeni fronts were targeted, the pressure on both fronts would significantly decrease.
In the news reports about this attack, Iran specifically mentioned that there were no casualties among key figures. This indicates that the terrorist attack was highly targeted, and Iran’s media deliberately conveyed this message.
The attack occurred at the Soleimani memorial event, where core members of the Quds Force would naturally be present. Soleimani had played a significant role in anti-American armed movements in Iraq and Syria and in regional conflicts. He was a constant thorn in the side of the United States and Israel. Under such circumstances, orchestrating a terrorist attack is a clear indicator of the likely culprits.
In essence, this appears to be a meticulously planned act of terrorism targeting key individuals (likely the Quds Force), and it failed.
P.S.: Some things are evident even to the naked eye, and the official designation of this as a terrorist attack raises the question of why the media continues to refer to it as a series of bombings. Upon further examination, the answer becomes clear.
Speculations on Recent Events
Let’s start by discussing the most likely scenario.
Firstly, there was the incident where Iranian drones silently approached a U.S. aircraft carrier. Surprisingly, the U.S. aircraft carrier did not detect the drones approaching and did not attempt to intercept them.
Then, the Iranian drones directly threatened and ordered U.S. helicopters to land on the aircraft carrier. They provided a warning to the U.S. aircraft carrier, after which the carrier moved away from the Israeli coastline.
This action by Iran, forcing a retreat of the U.S. aircraft carrier using drones, had a significant impact on Israel. Without the support of the U.S. aircraft carrier, Israel’s military actions would be significantly constrained.
Subsequently, the U.S. promptly withdrew the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier from the Mediterranean. It seemed futile since the possibility of Iranian drones approaching silently and having a significant impact in actual combat was low.
Following these events, we witnessed an explosion in Iran that resulted in nearly a hundred casualties. Iran believes it was carried out by Israel. Indeed, Israel is the most likely perpetrator, possibly as retaliation for Iran’s drone intimidation of the U.S. aircraft carrier. This could potentially shift the balance in the Israel-Palestine conflict, making Israel’s advantage less significant.
Therefore, the most significant event related to the explosions in Iran is the Iranian drone’s intimidation of the aircraft carrier. Its connection to the Red Sea crisis may not be substantial. It can be said that because these events occurred in the same timeframe, they may collectively influence the comprehensive assessment of both sides.
To say it’s related, it’s indeed unrelated, but to say it’s completely unrelated, that does have some relevance.
The thing is, if we speculate that Mossad is the mastermind behind it, the direct trigger for the explosion in Iran was that Xiao Ba Wang (Hamas) wanted to bring Iran down, and then achieve the goal of forcing the United States to intervene. From this perspective, it does seem unrelated.
However, it’s also true that Houthis (Huthis) severed Xiao Ba Wang’s (Hamas) major trade routes, causing Xiao Ba Wang (Hamas) to struggle in the Gaza conflict, indirectly leading to Xiao Ba Wang’s (Hamas) desperation. So, the Houthis (Huthis) did play a significant role in this regard.
Geopolitical Implications of the Red Sea Crisis
Many events seem to be shrouded in uncertainty, and conspiracy theories are unreliable. From the current information available, it’s indeed challenging to determine its direct connection to the Red Sea Crisis, but there is undoubtedly some level of association. After all, all politics are geopolitics.
To understand this, we need to remember when our former President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, leading to multiple clashes between Iran and Israel. This time it’s an explosion in Iran, but before that, Israel had attacked Iranian vessels several times, more than a dozen times to be precise.
The Red Sea Crisis, an extension of the Israel-Hamas conflict, involves the targeting of Israeli merchant ships. Naturally, shipping costs increase as they must detour around the Cape of Good Hope.
The Suez Canal and the Red Sea are crucial global waterways, much like the incident with the Ever Given container ship grounding in the Suez Canal some time ago, causing a partial disruption in global shipping. The crisis arising from the conflict, known as the Red Sea Crisis, entails the cost of rerouting merchant ships. According to the maritime security company Dryad Global, this narrow chokepoint is vital to global shipping and trade, with approximately $1 trillion worth of trade passing through it annually. Such attacks not only pose regional geopolitical risks but also constitute significant global economic threats.
To put it mildly, this is mischief; less charitably, it’s piracy. A year ago, Yemen made false claims about blocking the Red Sea to pressure the United States and Israel, and now it’s truly blocked. Major shipping companies have suspended operations.
Similar to the recent container incident in Shanghai, suspensions in shipping are disruptive.
Iran’s involvement at the head of the Suez Canal has led some to speculate that the United States is behind it. Attacking Iran, speeding up the Red Sea Crisis, could potentially allow the U.S. to manipulate oil supplies, but this is only a possibility. With international oil prices on the rise, the U.S. could gain leverage.
However, it might not be the work of the United States, as a month-long blockade would undoubtedly lead to price increases and expose the fragility of globalization. Inflation would likely affect Europe and the United States simultaneously, which might not be beneficial for the United States either.
Let’s take another look at the situation.
Three words to describe Iran:
No retaliation allowed Unfathomable depths Ninja turtles
Previously thought it was Israel’s doing, Iran didn’t dare to retaliate, but now ISIS has taken the blame. Does Iran still dare not to strike?
If they truly fight ISIS, even the United States would cheer them on a bit, after all, it’s global counter-terrorism.
I just wonder, where is Iran’s bottom line?
Iran and the A-share market, whose bottom is deeper?
After the explosion, the United States quickly disclaimed responsibility, and Iran has not yet released a factual investigation report. Therefore, we are patiently awaiting the official investigation results.
Explosions Occur at Commemoration Ceremony for Iranian Commander Soleimani
At a ceremony commemorating the fourth anniversary of the death of Iranian Quds Force Commander Soleimani, who was killed by a US drone strike in 2020, two explosions occurred, resulting in nearly a hundred casualties and multiple injuries. Iranian officials have blamed these incidents on unidentified “terrorists.”
The commemorative event, held at the mausoleum where Soleimani is buried in the southeastern city of Kerman, was marred by two explosions that occurred just 20 minutes into the proceedings. Iran has previously accused individuals or entities, possibly linked to Israel, of attacks on its border – though Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement. Currently, there is no evidence suggesting foreign involvement in the mausoleum explosions.
The explosions were triggered remotely by the terrorists, who had planted explosive devices along the road leading to the Kerman Martyrs Mausoleum. In a statement, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its commitment to using all international means to identify those responsible for the attacks and their supporters, vowing to bring them to justice.
Lebanon warned Israel of consequences and urged it not to attack Lebanon, stating, “If the enemy wants to wage war on Lebanon, we will fight without restraint, rules, or limits, with no restrictions whatsoever.”
The Iranian explosions have had a significant impact on global markets, causing international oil prices to rise by over 3%. Israel and Iran are longtime adversaries, and following a unprecedented attack by Hamas on southern Israel on October 7th last year, which led to the Gaza War, violence linked to Iranian-backed militant groups has surged in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
The Iran explosion has been trending for a whole day. Can we get a trend for the Myanmar artillery attack on Yunnan? Don’t our own compatriots deserve attention?
A group of people were analyzing assumptions one after another, from geopolitics to the Red Sea crisis, from American conspiracies to Israeli retaliation, talking as if they knew it all.
But unexpectedly, ISIS came forward to claim responsibility.
ISIS claims responsibility for boomerang attacks
Let me give you an example:
In my hometown of Yunnan,
There is a real estate development dispute in Honghe Prefecture,
Han Chinese villagers took dynamite and clashed with the office of the developer’s underworld associates
Overseas Uighurs claim that they did it, and it’s not the first time
Every time there is an explosion in a Yunnan civilian dispute, they claim it’s their doing
They have been saying this since 2001, for the past 22 years,
Regardless of whether the mastermind behind the explosion has a feud with the Uighurs or is just targeting the Uighur underworld.