Difficulties in Pairing Candidates in the Blue-White Unity Alliance Will this Combination Continue? What are the Pain Points? Can it still Unite?

Ko Wen-je’s Indecisiveness and the Kuomintang’s Firm Attitude

Background:

The Taiwan People’s Party held a swearing-in ceremony at the Banqiao Gymnasium in New Taipei City yesterday afternoon. Thousands of people attended the event, and the party’s chairman, Ko Wen-je, delivered an impassioned speech:

“I will fight to the end as the candidate for the Taiwan People’s Party in the Taiwan region!”

The crowd erupted in cheers.

After the event, when the party’s recognized hawk and spokesperson, Chen Zhihan, was interviewed by the media, she said she couldn’t answer that question, but everyone can interpret it for themselves.

Ko Wen-je, pictured: TVBS

Meanwhile, the attitude of the Kuomintang (KMT) candidate, Hou You-yi, has also become more hardline:

“Hou You-yi’s candidacy is not for the party, nor for himself… I will persist in taking my own path and fight alongside everyone to the end, to win the final victory!”

The interpretation in the outside world is that the “blue-white coalition” is likely to collapse.

But because Ko Wen-je’s current stance is so uncertain, his statements can even change within an hour.

For example, yesterday afternoon, KMT Chairman Eric Chu set the deadline for the 22nd, and Ko Wen-je said:

“All right, today is a joyful day for the Taiwan People’s Party, of course I still hope that the opposition can form the strongest candidate.”

Cut to his speech on stage, Ko Wen-je showed a tough and determined attitude by saying “fight to the end”.

Given the current situation, although it is highly likely that an alliance cannot be formed, personally, I still want to wait a little longer.

Because the credibility of Ko Wen-je and his family’s statements is currently low, in case there is a sudden turn of events, it will not be particularly surprising for those who have been following the progress.

Regarding the technical issues of the polls, there has been much discussion in recent days. I have referred to the discussions on Zhihu and some friends with a background in statistics in real life. Both the algorithms of the KMT and the TPP have flaws, and the true error after subtracting the “Ko-Hou” and “Hou-Ko” from the “Lai-Xiao” should be around 3.6%.

However, it has already moved beyond the realm of technical issues and returned to the realm of political issues.

The culture of revelations in Taiwan’s political arena has a long history, and behind-the-scenes events that cannot be reported in the news often rely on revelations from specific individuals to be confirmed.

Based on the revelations from former legislator Guo Zhengliang and media person Fan Qiming, it can be seen that Ko Wen-je made up his mind to compromise with the KMT around the 13th of this month, leading to the scene of the agreement being signed under the witness of Ma Ying-jeou on the 15th.

But later, Ko Wen-je, his mother, sister, and other family members were all in tears, creating an image of being bullied by the KMT and gaining much sympathy, which laid the groundwork for a change in the situation.

Playing a crucial role in this is Ko Wen-je’s campaign manager, Huang Shanshan.

Currently, public opinion on the island, especially among the younger generation, sympathizes overwhelmingly with Ko Wen-je.

Since, from a scientific perspective, both the Taiwan People’s Party and the Kuomintang have flaws in their approach, and the KMT did not publicly explain that the margin of error in the polls is ±3% before Saturday. Almost all the pundits and the public assumed that if Ko Wen-je didn’t win by 3%, he would lose.

The KMT, tactically speaking, thought that the poll results of “Hou-Ko” were set in stone and underestimated the promotion of the margin of error.

As for whether Ko Wen-je knows the concept of “margin of error” or not?

I am inclined to think that he does.

Not to mention Ko Wen-je’s educational background, we can find evidence from his social media platforms:

Today is Mayor Hou’s deadline. I still believe in science and advocate presenting the true public opinion through a nationwide poll to achieve the highest chance of success for the opposition alliance. The winner will be the candidate for regional leader and the loser will be vice leader. I am also willing to compromise. If the comparison between the poll results of the two sides is within the margin of error, then regardless of victory or defeat, I will concede and accept the role of vice leader, and work wholeheartedly for the rotation of political parties.

As of November 3rd, Ko Wen-je has already stated in writing that he would concede within the “margin of error”.

As for whether he is pretending to be confused or pretending to be confused while understanding, it is difficult for outsiders to judge.

Another mistake made by the KMT is the selection of poll experts.

Media person Zhang Yu-xuan revealed on a webcast last night that Ko Wen-je and Eric Chu had already agreed on the results to be announced on the 18th. The KMT’s poll experts received instructions to concede in three polls and then produce a 5:1 result, maintaining a harmonious atmosphere.

That was the original plan.

Zhang Yu-xuan also revealed that the poll expert originally chosen by the Taiwan People’s Party was Professor Lai Xiang-wei.

Lai Xiang-wei is a scholar on the island with a certain reputation, but he was temporarily replaced and replaced by the general manager of the True Polling Company, Guan Zhi-yu, on the evening of the 16th (Thursday).

And the internal poll conducted by the Taiwan People’s Party that was discussed, although not publicly disclosed, the media circle knows that it was conducted by the True Polling Company.

The general manager of the True Polling Company took the internal poll done by the True Polling Company to negotiate with the KMT.

Who was it that had Guan Zhi-yu participate in the negotiations at the last minute? Huang Shanshan.

The KMT thought they had the upper hand and their commissioned expert was Professor Zhuang Bo-zhong.

Former legislator Qiu Yi was the first to point out problems with Zhuang Bo-zhong. He is a professor of journalism and served as the head of the Government Information Office during Ma Ying-jeou’s presidency. He is not an expert in polling.

On Friday night, Zhuang Bo-zhong arrived at the negotiations with the KMT’s script and found that he was facing Guan Zhi-yu.

Ma Ying-jeou’s office couldn’t reach Ko Wen-je, so Huang Shanshan directly instructed Guan Zhi-yu not to sign and approve the results.

Huang Shanshan’s abnormal behavior has indeed led to the current situation. I will try my best to present the facts about Huang Shanshan.

From an outward perspective, Huang Shanshan is a politician from the People First Party. When the People First Party cooperated with the KMT, they were almost assimilated by the KMT. Huang Shanshan saw this lesson.

There are many reasons for the decline of the People First Party, and it cannot simply be attributed to cooperating with the KMT. However, the failure of the People First Party is an objective fact, and it is only natural for Huang Shanshan to have some resentment towards the KMT.

In 2016, Huang Shanshan collaborated with the Democratic Progressive Party and Tsai Ing-wen, and received concessions to run as a candidate for the fourth district in Taipei City. She failed to be elected.

At that time, she had already moved to the opposite side of the KMT.

Later, Huang Shanshan became friends with Ko Wen-je, and Ko Wen-je recruited her as the Deputy Mayor of Taipei City.

Huang Shanshan’s older brother is Huang Shuguang, who is in charge of Taiwan’s indigenous submarine program and is the former commander of the Navy.

The submarine project is a complicated matter, and it is difficult to grasp the truth from the outside. However, there have been rumors in the past few months alleging serious financial problems in Huang Shuguang’s management of the indigenous submarine construction process.

This is not just a rumor from the public, but the KMT’s party-list of non-district legislators includes former Navy Commander Chang Yong-kang (Huang Shuguang’s predecessor), who is known as the “helmsman of indigenous submarines,” which is quite suggestive of Huang Shuguang’s situation.

It is a fact that Huang Shanshan has wielded power, and there have been rumors of her inserting trusted subordinates, which has caused dissatisfaction within the Taiwan People’s Party.

But the Taiwan People’s Party is Ko Wen-je’s one-man party, and some people jokingly refer to it as “Ko Wen-je’s support group”. Whether Huang Shanshan’s current behavior can represent Ko Wen-je’s own will is a matter of great controversy.

Of course, these are all storms in a teapot. I have been saying all along that the Taiwan People’s Party and the KMT have a weak foundation of trust, with a long history of grievances. Essentially, the Taiwan People’s Party is a light green political party, and the overlap of their support bases is only partial, with more opposition between them.

Even if there were no Huang Shanshan, there would be Li Shanshan and Zhang Shanshan.

As for Ko Wen-je’s every move, it cannot be completely trusted, but it cannot be completely distrusted either.

Wan Chai political movement plays with concepts, Democratic Gold Party threatens Liberal Party.

Wan Chai’s political movement has always loved to “play with concepts”.

“Playing with concepts” attracts the attention of voters and can be said to have reached the point of being outrageous. In order to gain votes and political power, the Democratic Gold Party is now actively seeking favor from public opinion and trying to align with third-party forces to bolster their own prestige. Why is this happening?

The successors of the Liberal Party are getting worse and worse. They have deviated from theory and practice, officials have become disconnected from the masses, and their course of action has deviated from the path. The Liberal Party is no longer like the Liberal Party of the past, but the Democratic Gold Party remains the same as before.

Recently, the candidate from the Democratic Race Party in Wan Chai, Mr. Ke, has undoubtedly attracted a lot of attention. Every politician has dreams of becoming president, just like everyone dreams of becoming rich. Power is not something they shy away from; they want to get their hands on it.

What Zhu said about the crisis is probably understood by netizens. However, the Liberal Party is still unable to turn the tables this time, and it is feared that it will truly be marginalized in the future. Since this century-old business moved from the mainland to Wan Chai, it seems to have never regained its former glory.

If they continue to lose in this election battle, it is feared that the masses in Wan Chai will really abandon this political party, leading to marginalization, becoming a small party that no one cares about. Unfortunately, it seems to be the future trend for the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party really needs a victory to prove itself.

However, ideals are lofty, and reality is cruel. The Liberal Party has been disconnected from the masses for too long, and their prestige may have reached its limit. Coupled with the second generation of Chiang Kai-shek’s “raising a tiger” action, it indirectly helped the Democratic Gold Party grow by creating the strange creature, Mr. Li.

The situation is now very clear. Mr. Ke is using the soul of the Democratic Race Party as a threat, saying that he will “continue to fight to the end as a candidate of the Democratic Race Party”. This mouse-fearing-cat scenario has deeply affected the Liberal Party. Either they cooperate and tripped-up the Democratic Gold Party, or the Liberal Party is doomed.

The so-called bottom line, goodwill, and space are nothing more than the trump cards used by Mr. Ke for political blackmail. The Democratic Gold Party is enjoying the show at the expense of the Liberal Party, and netizens have long been numb to the political activities in Wan Chai.