Did the series of bombings in Iran relate to the current Red Sea crisis?
Summary of Saudi-Iran Relations Post-New Year
The significance is not substantial.
After the New Year, the head of the Saudi Security Committee visited Iran to discuss several matters: intelligence sharing, direct flights, Palestine-Israel issues, and the Red Sea, involving the Houthi rebels.
The outcomes of the discussions were somewhat problematic. For starters, the direct flights will not be resumed temporarily due to technical reasons. In March, a large pilgrimage event is set to take place in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, with around six million Iranians expected to visit. Both sides face challenges. Not only is Saudi facing immense security pressure, but Iran too. The Arab public is generally dissatisfied with the performance of Saudi and Iran in the recent Palestine-Israel conflict. There are concerns that if an incident occurs, it would be due to deliberate sabotage.
The matter is highly troublesome.
Furthermore, Iran expressed discontent with Saudi Arabia for allowing U.S. and Israel to use its territory and bases to attack Houthi forces. In response, Saudi essentially challenged Iran to take a more direct action against the US if they can, indicating a dismissive and provocative stance. The Red Sea issue was also discussed, with Saudi Arabia clearly not supporting any side, emphasizing the need to avoid provocations from both parties, particularly the Houthis.
Additionally, the two discussed matters concerning the Houthi militia. Iran mentioned that some weapons have been localized in production by the Houthis and are not entirely their responsibility. Saudi, however, pointed out the continuous terrorist attacks by the Houthis, including blockades in the Red Sea, which undermines the legitimacy of the Houthis internationally.
In summary, the general situation between the two remains as described.
In late December, a Saudi prince provided insights into the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran during an interview. He mentioned that reconciliation with Iran does not signify a desire to dominate the Arab world. The issues of Iran’s promotion of Shia Islam and the nuclear issue are well understood by Saudi. However, efforts to maintain regional reconciliation should not be reversed, and the nuclear issue is of significant concern for the region. Saudi Arabia firmly opposes Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
In essence, that’s the situation.
Iran’s Leader Vows Stern Response to Deadly Bombings
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed a “severe response” to a bombing attack targeting a crowd commemorating the anniversary of the assassination of top spy master Qassem Soleimani by the United States.
The attack in southern Kerman resulted in 84 fatalities and numerous injuries. On Thursday morning, the head of Iran’s emergency services revised the death toll down from an initial 95 reported.
No organization has yet claimed responsibility for the attack.
In a statement issued Wednesday night, Khamenei declared: “The cruel criminals must know that from now on, they will face severe retaliation. Without a doubt, they will receive a harsh response.”
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi’s political deputy, Mohammad Jamshidi, blamed Israel and the U.S. However, the U.S. has indicated there are no signs of Israeli involvement and dismissed any suggestions of Washington’s participation.
Suspicion may fall on Arab separatists and Sunni jihadist organizations like ISIS, which have launched attacks against civilians and security forces in the country in recent years.
ISIS had welcomed the death of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, whose militia had fought the group for many years in Iraq.
Soleimani was considered the second most powerful individual in Iran after the Supreme Leader, later killed in a U.S. drone strike in neighboring Iraq in 2020.
The attack comes as the deputy leader of the Iran-backed Palestinian organization Hamas was killed in an Israeli drone strike in Lebanon, escalating tensions in the region.
Video broadcasted by Iranian state television showed crowds marching along a road during the explosion, with banners of Qassem Soleimani hanging on either side.
Following one of the blasts, screams could be heard, followed by people fleeing in panic.
Iranian media reported the first bomb detonated around 15:00 local time (11:30 GMT), approximately 700 meters (2,300 feet) from the Martyrs' Garden cemetery near the Saheb al-Zaman mosque on the eastern outskirts of Kerman.
They said the second explosion occurred about 15 minutes later, approximately 1 kilometer from the cemetery, targeting people fleeing from the first blast.
The governor of Kerman province told the national news agency IRNA that both explosions occurred outside security checkpoints, and authorities are certain they were caused by bombs. However, it’s currently unclear whether the bombs were remotely detonated or carried out by suicide bombers.
Tasnim news agency, affiliated with Iran’s hardline Revolutionary Guard, earlier cited sources claiming that “two bags filled with bombs” were apparently detonated “remotely.”
ISNA news agency quoted a witness saying, “We were heading towards the cemetery, and a car suddenly stopped behind us, and a trash bin filled with explosives blew up.”
“We only heard the explosion and saw people fall.”
Iran’s Red Crescent reported that among the dead were at least one nurse sent to the site of the first explosion and hit by the second.
Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said the second explosion caused the most deaths and injuries, and investigations are underway to determine the perpetrators behind the attack.
President Ebrahim Raisi labeled the bombings as “cowardly acts” carried out by “criminals who hate Iran, followers of terrorism and darkness.”
Former British Ambassador to Iran Rob Macaire told the BBC that it’s currently unclear who masterminded the bombings.
He stated, “Clearly, opposition groups have the capacity to carry out violent attacks, though their capabilities are limited.” “I don’t think they are attacks that threaten the regime, but they certainly will exacerbate the situation.”
A spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres strongly condemned the attack, extending deep condolences to the “families of the victims, the people, and the government of Iran.”
The European Union condemned the bombing in the “strongest terms” and expressed solidarity with the Iranian people, while Russian President Vladimir Putin described the attack as “shocking in its cruelty and cynicism.”
Several Gulf countries and Turkey condemned the attack.
The leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah movement stated that the victims were “martyrs who died on the same path, cause, and fight led by Soleimani.” Hezbollah, like Hamas, is a powerful armed organization supported by Iran.
As the commander of the Quds Force, the overseas operational arm of the Revolutionary Guard, Soleimani was the architect of Iran’s regional policy.
He was responsible for the Quds Force’s clandestine missions and provided guidance, funding, weapons, intelligence, and logistical support to allied governments and armed groups, including Hezbollah and Hamas.
Then-U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the 2020 drone strike, describing Soleimani as the “number one terrorist in the world” and claiming his forces killed hundreds of American civilians and soldiers over the past twenty years.
The Iranian government accused the U.S. of carrying out an act of international terrorism and issued arrest warrants for Trump and other officials.
(from BBC “Iran leader vows harsh response to deadly bombings that killed 84”)
Complex Dynamics in the Middle East: From Iranian Bombings to the Red Sea Crisis
The serial bombings in Iran and the Red Sea crisis are part of the chaotic situation in the Middle East. The chaos originates from the Israel-Palestine conflict, which itself is underpinned by the power play between the USA and Iran. The entire Middle East serves as the chessboard for this great game, with Iraq’s militia forces, the Houthi rebels, Hezbollah of Lebanon, Syria, and Hamas all acting as Iran’s pawns. The Red Sea crisis is just one move in this larger game, as are the bombings in Iran.
Many might not realize that before the Islamic Revolution, Iran was one of America’s most important allies in the Middle East. It was a top-tier ally, evidenced by its access to U.S.-exclusive F-14 heavy air superiority fighters. The American strategy involved supporting Israel and Iran to suppress other Middle Eastern countries.
The 1979 Islamic Revolution caught the United States off guard by overthrowing the Pahlavi dynasty and establishing an Islamic theocracy in Iran, leading to a complete breakdown in relations with the USA. Though the U.S. lost Iran, it inadvertently benefited from the newfound hostility between Iran, predominantly Shia, and Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Middle East was thus divided into a tripartite arrangement of Israel, Sunni, and Shia factions.
In response, the U.S. adjusted its strategy, aligning with Sunnis to isolate Iran and promote reconciliation between Sunni nations and Israel. After its Islamic Revolution, Iran engaged in an 8-year war with Iraq, while the U.S. imposed severe sanctions that lasted for decades, making Iran’s survival extremely challenging. Meanwhile, Israel ceased large-scale conflicts with the Arab world. With Saudi Arabia as its spokesperson, the U.S. continuously pushed for reconciliation between Saudi and Israel. The strategy to counterbalance Iran with Sunnis was quite successful at one point.
However, the U.S.’s Middle East strategy wasn’t without its flaws. Two major mistakes were the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the indulgence of Israel. Saddam was an enemy of both the U.S. and Iran, instigating the Iran-Iraq War. The Gulf War in the 90s followed by the Iraq War in the 21st century not only overthrew Saddam but left Iraq in ruins, unable to counter Iran’s influence. The U.S. inadvertently made Iraq a gift to Iran, making it a significant part of the Shia crescent.
Israel’s greed laid the groundwork for the Israel-Palestine conflict. With U.S. support, Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt made peace with Israel. If Israel had maintained restraint, reconciliation with Saudi, and thus an end to the conflict with Sunnis, was likely. However, Israel’s aggressive territorial expansion and blockade led to massive attacks from Gaza, reigniting the Israel-Palestine conflict.
The U.S. faced setbacks as its push for Saudi-Israeli reconciliation was hindered, while China successfully facilitated Iran-Saudi reconciliation in March 2023, after seven years of severed diplomatic ties. Saudi Arabia, now the spokesperson for Sunnis, and Egypt, a former Sunni leader, are key in the reconciliation with Iran. If Iran further restores relations with Egypt, it would essentially achieve reconciliation with the Sunni faction, shifting the tripartite power balance to a Sunni-Shia union against Israel. This shift could encircle Israel and destabilize the U.S.’s strategic layout in the Middle East.
The series of bombings in Iran are like throwing a large stone into an already turbulent lake, causing ripples that will further destabilize the Middle East, affecting both the Red Sea crisis and the Israel-Palestine conflict.
ISIS has come forward to claim my actions.
This…
Iran is Shia, and ISIS is Sunni. Iran was actively involved in the fight against ISIS as early as 2017.
ISIS has also been attacking within Iran’s borders for years. It seems that ISIS is also puzzled, wondering why no one ever thought about me when I tirelessly tried to make a big impact.
Why was ISIS ignored, I wonder?
Quite Amusing
They are still trying to pin it on Israel.
Israel has always been quick to retaliate when they have an enemy, typically with targeted missions that minimize civilian casualties.
In the case of these consecutive bombings, one must wonder, if it was indeed Israel, what was their target? Iranian civilians?
In recent years, Iranian civilians have been angered by incidents involving religious police and headscarves. Would Israel really try to restore the honor of the religious regime by bombing them?
Most importantly, Israel has a history of acting openly to make it clear that they are responsible, aiming for a deterrent effect.
Just last year, when a drone struck an Iranian military base and weapons factory, the world suspected Israel’s involvement, and Iran didn’t remain silent.
In short, this situation benefits whoever is suspected of being involved. Currently, there are three major stakeholders: Iran itself, Hamas, and Russia.
To claim that the United States and Israel are responsible, one must ask, what benefit would there be for them in attacking Iranian civilians and turning the Middle East into chaos?
The truth is revealed: it’s ISIS, more hateful than any heretics or infidels.
Planned Terrorism Strikes
First and foremost, this is undoubtedly a planned act of terrorism, not your typical series of bombings.
This is purely speculative and lacks concrete evidence, so consider it as a piece of fiction. Here’s my take on the matter:
Israeli terrorist organization, Mossad, has a long history of activity in Iran. Previously, it was easy for them to operate across the border due to the presence of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. After the U.S. withdrawal, the Taliban in Afghanistan and Iran might have joined forces against the creators of terrorism. Some have been successfully captured, and there are certainly more who haven’t been caught yet. Remember the old days when Chiang Kai-shek’s spies were still lurking? As a critical player affecting the Middle East region, Iran surely has covert agents within its borders, and much of the terrorism within Iran is linked to the CIA and Mossad.
Currently, Israel is engaged in conflict on its northern and southern fronts. In the northern theater of operations, we have Lebanon in front, followed by Syria, and behind them is Iran. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, are positioned in the background. To alleviate pressure in the Red Sea and the northern front, creating acts of terrorism within Iran to destabilize the country or launching attacks against key figures and high-value targets is highly probable. This is because it’s difficult for the United States to personally intervene militarily in Yemen at this point. If key individuals within Iran or coordinators between Lebanon and Yemen were targeted during this time, the pressure on both fronts would significantly decrease.
In the news coverage of this attack, Iranian reports specifically mentioned that no key figures were harmed, indicating that the terrorist attack was highly targeted. Iran’s media likely deliberately released this information.
The attack took place during the memorial event for Soleimani, which was attended by prominent members of the Quds Force. Soleimani played a significant role in anti-American armed movements in Iraq, Syria, and neighboring conflicts. He has long been a thorn in the side of the United States and Israel. In such a context, creating a terrorist attack during this event leaves little doubt about who the perpetrators are.
This incident is essentially a case of a demanded, feasible, and planned act of terrorism targeting a key figure (likely the Quds Force) that ultimately failed.
P.S.: Some things are clear to the discerning eye, and even the authorities define it as a terrorist attack. So, why does the media still refer to it as a series of bombings? I took another look at various explanations, and oh, I see.
Speculating on Recent Events in the Middle East
Let’s start with the most likely speculation.
Firstly, Iran’s drones approached a US aircraft carrier without being detected, and the US aircraft carrier surprisingly didn’t realize it until the drones were near, failing to intercept them.
Then, Iran’s drones directly issued a threat to the US helicopters, ordering them to land on the aircraft carrier. Subsequently, the US aircraft carrier received a warning and moved away from the Israeli coastline.
So, Iran’s action of forcing the retreat of the US aircraft carrier with drones has a significant impact on Israel. Without the support of the US aircraft carrier, Israel’s military operations would be greatly restrained.
Next, the US straightforwardly withdrew the Ford-class aircraft carrier from the Mediterranean. Since it didn’t seem very effective, as Iran’s drones could silently approach, the likelihood of it being highly effective in actual combat was low.
Following that, we witnessed an attack on Iran, resulting in nearly a hundred casualties. Iran, in turn, believes that Israel was behind this attack. Indeed, Israel is the most likely culprit, possibly seeking retaliation for Iran’s drone intimidation of the US aircraft carrier. This could potentially alter the balance of the Israel-Palestine conflict, gradually diminishing Israel’s advantage.
Therefore, the most significant event related to the explosions in Iran is Iran’s drone intimidation of the aircraft carrier, and its connection to the Red Sea crisis might not be substantial. It can be said that since these events occurred during the same time frame, they could influence the overall assessments on both sides.
To say it’s related, it’s indeed unrelated, but to say it’s completely unrelated, there’s still some connection.
The situation is this: if we speculate that Mossad is the mastermind behind it, the direct trigger for the explosion in Iran was that Hamas wanted to bring Iran down, ultimately forcing the United States to intervene. From this perspective, it does seem unrelated.
However, it’s also true that Hamas severed the major trade routes of Mossad, causing Mossad to struggle during the Gaza War, indirectly leading to Mossad’s desperation. So, in this regard, Hamas did play a significant role in exacerbating the situation.
The Red Sea Crisis and Its Global Implications
Many events are shrouded in uncertainty, and conspiracy theories are unreliable. From the current information available, it’s indeed challenging to determine its connection to the Red Sea Crisis, but there’s certainly a link. After all, all politics are geopolitics.
To understand the situation, we must remember that our former president, Trump, withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal, which led to multiple conflicts between Iran and Israel. While this recent incident involves an explosion in Iran, Israel had previously attacked Iranian vessels multiple times – over a dozen times, to be precise.
The Red Sea Crisis, an extension of the Israel-Hamas conflict, targets Israeli commercial ships. This disruption naturally leads to increased shipping costs, forcing vessels to detour around the Cape of Good Hope.
The Suez Canal and the Red Sea are crucial global waterways, akin to the incident with the Ever Given vessel getting stuck in the Suez Canal last year, which caused a partial halt in global shipping. The consequences of this war-induced cargo crisis, known as the Red Sea Crisis, include the additional cost borne by commercial ships. According to Dryad Global, a maritime security company, this narrow chokepoint is vital to global shipping and trade, with approximately $1 trillion worth of trade passing through it each year. Such attacks not only pose regional geopolitical risks but also significant global economic threats.
To put it mildly, this is disruptive behavior, but less charitably, it’s piracy. A year ago, Yemen falsely claimed to have blocked the Red Sea to pressure the United States and Israel, and now it seems that it has actually occurred. Major shipping giants have halted their operations.
Similar to the recent container incident in Shanghai that led to shipping stoppages, Iran is being pointed at as the culprit behind the Suez Canal disruption. The Suez Canal is not only a major shipping artery but also an oil artery. Attacking Iran to accelerate the Red Sea Crisis could potentially allow the United States to control oil, but it’s still only a possibility. With international oil prices rising, the U.S. can gain leverage.
However, it might not be the United States behind this, as a month-long blockage would undoubtedly lead to inflation and highlight the fragility of globalization. Inflation would affect both Europe and the United States simultaneously, which I believe wouldn’t be in the best interest of the United States.
Let’s take a closer look…
- Can be described in three words:
- Non-retaliatory
- Enigmatic
- Ninja Turtles
Previously thought it was Israel’s doing; Iran didn’t dare to retaliate. Now, ISIS is taking the blame. Does Iran still dare not to retaliate? When it comes to fighting ISIS, even the U.S. offers some encouragement, after all, it’s global counter-terrorism. I just wonder, where is Iran’s bottom line? Iran vs. A-shares (Chinese stock market), Whose bottom is deeper?
After the explosion, the United States quickly distanced itself from the incident, claiming it was not their doing. Iran has not yet released a truth investigation report, so we await the official investigation results in silence.
Explosions Occur During Commemoration of Iranian Commander Soleimani’s Death
During a ceremony commemorating Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike in 2020, two explosions occurred, resulting in nearly a hundred casualties and multiple injuries. Officials blamed unidentified “terrorists” for the incident.
The fourth-anniversary commemoration event held at the mausoleum in the southeastern city of Kerman, where Soleimani is buried, was marred by two explosions. The first explosion occurred just 20 minutes into the event, followed by a second explosion. Iran has previously accused individuals or entities from Israel of attacking its border—claims that Israel has neither confirmed nor denied. However, there is currently no evidence of foreign involvement in this mausoleum explosion.
Terrorists remotely detonated two explosive devices planted on the road leading to the Kerman Martyrs Mausoleum. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that Iran will use all international means to identify those responsible for the attack and their supporters, and bring them to justice.
Lebanon warned that Israel must face consequences and cautioned Israel against attacking Lebanon. “If the enemy wants to wage a war against Lebanon, we will fight without restraint, without rules, without limits, and without any restrictions,” they declared.
The Iranian explosion sent shockwaves through global markets, causing international oil prices to rise by over 3%. Israel and Iran are longstanding adversaries, and after Hamas, supported by Iran, launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel on October 7th last year, triggering the Gaza War, violence involving Iranian-backed armed groups surged in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
The Iran explosion has been trending for a whole day, can we get “Myanmar artillery strike in Yunnan” trending too? Don’t our own compatriots deserve attention?
A group of people were meticulously analyzing various assumptions, ranging from geopolitics to the Red Sea crisis, from American conspiracies to Israeli retaliation, discussing them with great seriousness.
Surprisingly, it turns out that ISIS has claimed responsibility for it.
ISIS claims responsibility, boomerang-style
Let me give you an example
In my hometown Yunnan
There’s a real estate development dispute in Honghe Prefecture,
Han Chinese villagers clashed with the developers' office, resulting in casualties
Overseas Uighurs say it’s their doing, and it’s not the first time
Every time there’s an explosion in a Yunnan civil dispute, they say it’s them
They’ve been saying this since 2001, for 22 years now,
Regardless of whether the mastermind behind the explosion is feuding with the Hui people, they’re going after the Hui criminal syndicates